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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: peach twig borer [stone fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: 2007 USU Ext.
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: 1st consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
(ca. 405 DD after Mar 1 or Jan 1 in warm climates)
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 15
Ending date: 9 30
Model validation status: requires local validation
Region of known use: used in NW USA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 55 DDs after biofix: OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
2. 220 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
3. 350 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
4. 500 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
5. 684 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
6. 1080 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7. 1280 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
8. 1500 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
9. 1760 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
10. 2240 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
11. 2580 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 73% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 96% male flight
12. 2820 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 3rd gen. 4% male flight
13. 3180 DDs after biofix: 4th gen. ca. 13% egg hatch (warmer climates only)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF26036 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Davis Mackenzie Gala OR Lat:45.9714 Long:-118.4039 Elev:876
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 26 70.80 51.90 0.00 11.35 11.3 * START *
5 27 68.80 50.90 0.00 9.85 21.2
5 28 75.70 49.70 0.00 12.71 33.9
5 29 78.70 54.80 0.00 16.75 50.7
5 30 76.30 47.40 0.00 12.18 62.8 Vx OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
5 31 83.70 45.90 0.00 15.38 78.2
6 1 84.40 51.30 0.00 17.85 96.1
6 2 76.60 65.20 0.00 20.90 117.0
6 3 87.40 56.30 0.00 21.85 138.8
6 4 94.00 51.70 0.00 21.88 160.7
6 5 94.80 55.20 0.00 23.78 184.5
6 6 99.80 66.20 0.00 29.91 214.4 Vx
6 7 96.70 67.00 0.00 29.79 244.2 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
6 8 87.30 73.00 0.00 30.15 274.3
6 9 78.50 58.70 0.00 18.60 292.9 Vx
6 10 69.10 54.50 0.00 11.80 304.7
6 11 72.10 50.00 0.00 11.05 315.8 Vx Vn
6 12 78.60 49.20 0.00 13.96 329.7 Vx Vn
6 13 75.00 58.40 0.00 16.70 346.4 Vx Vn
6 14 68.80 51.60 0.00 10.20 356.6 Vx Vn 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
6 15 67.90 46.80 0.00 7.89 364.5 Vx Vn
6 16 68.40 49.40 0.00 8.95 373.5 Vx Vn
6 17 78.60 48.80 0.00 13.80 387.3 Vx Vn
6 18 67.30 55.60 0.00 11.45 398.7 Vx
6 19 77.20 46.70 0.00 12.42 411.1 Vx Vn
6 20 81.50 50.10 0.00 15.80 426.9 Vx Vn
6 21 79.80 58.50 0.00 19.15 446.1 Vx Vn
6 22 85.90 49.40 0.00 17.68 463.8 Vx Vn
6 23 81.60 61.60 0.00 21.60 485.4 Vx Vn
6 24 73.20 54.70 0.00 13.95 499.3 Vx
6 25 81.50 51.80 0.00 16.65 516.0 Vx Vn 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
6 26 91.60 52.50 0.00 21.58 537.6 Vx Vn
6 27 93.60 60.40 0.00 26.01 563.6 Vx Vn
6 28 95.30 66.60 0.00 29.34 592.9 Vx Vn
6 29 94.60 65.40 0.00 28.64 621.5 Vx Vn
6 30 90.70 66.30 0.00 28.11 649.7 Vx Vn
7 1 89.00 63.30 0.00 26.07 675.7 Vx Vn
7 2 90.00 63.10 0.00 26.32 702.0 Vx Vn 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
7 3 85.70 64.80 0.00 25.25 727.3 Vx Vn
7 4 80.50 57.60 0.00 19.05 746.3 Vx Vn
7 5 78.20 55.40 0.00 16.80 763.1 Vx Vn
7 6 80.70 59.40 0.00 20.05 783.2 Vx Vn
7 7 81.50 60.50 0.00 21.00 804.2 Vx Vn
7 8 77.90 60.70 0.00 19.30 823.5 Vx
7 9 77.00 57.60 0.00 17.30 840.8
7 10 67.80 58.00 0.00 12.90 853.7
7 11 80.80 58.50 0.00 19.65 873.3 Vx
7 12 79.30 56.80 0.00 18.05 891.4
7 13 83.40 57.50 0.00 20.45 911.8 Vx
7 14 89.80 53.70 0.00 21.58 933.4 Vx
7 15 81.50 58.70 0.00 20.10 953.5 Vx
7 16 83.70 58.10 0.00 20.90 974.4 Vx
7 17 88.10 56.70 0.00 22.40 996.8 Vx
7 18 80.80 59.60 0.00 20.20 1017.0 Vx
7 19 80.20 58.20 0.00 19.20 1036.2 Vx
7 20 87.40 62.50 0.00 24.95 1061.2 Vx
7 21 95.20 54.50 0.00 23.54 1084.7 Vx 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7 22 83.00 64.60 0.00 23.80 1108.5 Vx Vn
7 23 78.70 55.40 0.00 17.05 1125.6
7 24 90.40 53.50 0.00 21.69 1147.2 Vx
7 25 96.90 59.80 0.00 26.45 1173.7 Vx
7 26 95.90 72.40 0.00 32.13 1205.8 Vx Vn
7 27 88.10 66.50 0.00 27.30 1233.1
7 28 91.10 66.60 0.00 28.38 1261.5
7 29 101.70 65.40 0.00 29.82 1291.3 Vx 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
7 30 94.70 71.80 0.00 31.66 1323.0 Vx Vn
7 31 87.00 62.40 0.00 24.70 1347.7 Vx Vn
8 1 90.90 56.90 0.00 23.54 1371.2 Vx Vn
8 2 78.80 62.50 0.00 20.65 1391.9 Vx Vn
8 3 84.00 53.50 0.00 18.75 1410.6 Vx
8 4 93.10 55.10 0.00 23.30 1433.9 Vx Vn
8 5 94.20 55.30 0.00 23.68 1457.6 Vx
8 6 87.80 63.70 0.00 25.75 1483.4 Vx Vn
8 7 82.70 61.40 0.00 22.05 1505.4 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
8 8 76.60 53.80 0.00 15.20 1520.6 Vx Vn
8 9 73.40 55.90 0.00 14.65 1535.3
8 10 84.40 56.00 0.00 20.20 1555.5 Vx Vn
8 11 90.30 57.60 0.00 23.69 1579.1 Vx Vn
8 12 95.70 61.30 0.00 26.92 1606.1 Vx Vn
8 13 97.80 65.40 0.00 29.24 1635.3 Vx Vn
8 14 95.60 69.90 0.00 30.94 1666.2 Vx Vn
8 15 96.00 63.90 0.00 28.21 1694.4 Vx Vn
8 16 95.70 65.00 0.00 28.67 1723.1 Vx Vn
8 17 95.10 64.00 0.00 28.07 1751.2 Vx Vn
8 18 96.70 65.80 0.00 29.23 1780.4 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
8 19 90.60 64.00 0.00 26.95 1807.4 Vx Vn
8 20 92.00 54.50 0.00 22.69 1830.1
8 21 94.10 66.70 0.00 29.15 1859.2 Vx Vn
8 22 79.50 56.80 0.00 18.15 1877.4 Vx Vn
8 23 82.80 54.60 0.00 18.70 1896.1 Vx Vn
8 24 87.10 54.00 0.00 20.55 1916.6 Vx Vn
8 25 89.50 52.90 0.00 21.07 1937.7 Vx Vn
8 26 91.50 56.30 0.00 23.43 1961.1 Vx Vn
8 27 90.80 68.80 0.00 29.37 1990.5 Vx Vn
8 28 89.20 60.30 0.00 24.65 2015.1 Vx Vn
8 29 94.40 57.60 0.00 24.85 2040.0 Vx Vn
8 30 82.20 62.80 0.00 22.50 2062.5 Vx Vn
8 31 83.20 59.40 0.00 21.30 2083.8 Vx Vn
9 1 79.00 59.60 0.00 19.30 2103.1 Vx Vn
9 2 74.80 55.30 0.00 15.05 2118.1 Vx Vn
9 3 73.00 53.20 0.00 13.10 2131.2 Vx Vn
9 4 74.40 46.80 0.00 11.07 2142.3 Vx Vn
9 5 74.80 52.20 0.00 13.50 2155.8 Vx Vn
9 6 65.60 55.70 0.00 10.65 2166.4 Vx Vn
9 7 77.40 57.40 0.00 17.40 2183.8 Vx Vn
9 8 78.00 56.60 0.00 17.30 2201.1 Vx Vn
9 9 78.70 46.80 0.00 13.18 2214.3 Vx Vn
9 10 89.00 51.50 0.00 20.18 2234.5 Vx Vn
9 11 75.70 51.30 0.00 13.50 2248.0 Vx Vn 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
9 12 73.20 43.80 0.00 9.74 2257.7 Vx Vn
9 13 72.50 42.30 0.00 9.10 2266.8 Vx Vn
9 14 78.70 47.40 0.00 13.37 2280.2 Vx Vn
9 15 83.20 53.50 0.00 18.35 2298.5 Vx Vn
9 16 87.70 53.70 0.00 20.70 2319.2 Vx Vn
9 17 72.20 62.50 0.00 17.35 2336.6 Vx Vn
9 18 72.40 59.80 0.00 16.10 2352.7 Vx Vn
9 19 68.10 57.20 0.00 12.65 2365.3 Vx Vn
9 20 68.60 48.30 0.00 8.66 2374.0 Vx Vn
9 21 67.30 45.50 0.00 7.29 2381.3 Vx Vn
9 22 57.80 43.80 0.00 2.64 2383.9 Vx Vn
9 23 67.60 52.00 0.00 9.80 2393.7 Vx Vn
9 24 70.50 52.50 0.00 11.50 2405.2 Vx Vn
9 25 82.70 49.90 0.00 16.30 2421.5 Vx Vn
9 26 83.00 50.30 0.00 16.65 2438.2 Vx Vn
9 27 84.00 59.40 0.00 21.70 2459.9 Vx Vn
9 28 76.80 50.60 0.00 13.70 2473.6 Vx Vn
9 29 79.10 50.50 0.00 14.80 2488.4 Vx Vn
9 30 74.30 54.60 0.00 14.45 2502.8 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF26036 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
peach twig borer model - 2007 USU Ext.Location: 2016 MF26036 Davis Mackenzie Gala Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-30-16 | 63 | OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying |
6-7-16 | 244 | 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight |
6-14-16 | 357 | 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight |
6-25-16 | 516 | 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight |
7-2-16 | 702 | 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation |
7-21-16 | 1085 | 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight |
7-29-16 | 1291 | 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight |
8-7-16 | 1505 | 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight |
8-18-16 | 1780 | 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight |
9-11-16 | 2248 | 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight |