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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: peach twig borer [stone fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: 2007 USU Ext.
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: 1st consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
(ca. 405 DD after Mar 1 or Jan 1 in warm climates)
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 15
Ending date: 9 30
Model validation status: requires local validation
Region of known use: used in NW USA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 55 DDs after biofix: OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
2. 220 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
3. 350 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
4. 500 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
5. 684 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
6. 1080 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7. 1280 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
8. 1500 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
9. 1760 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
10. 2240 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
11. 2580 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 73% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 96% male flight
12. 2820 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 3rd gen. 4% male flight
13. 3180 DDs after biofix: 4th gen. ca. 13% egg hatch (warmer climates only)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF25394 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown Stephens Hill OR Lat:45.9892 Long:-118.4117 Elev:810
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 26 70.90 55.00 0.00 12.95 13.0 * START *
5 27 67.70 50.70 0.00 9.20 22.2
5 28 74.70 48.50 0.00 11.75 33.9
5 29 78.90 54.40 0.00 16.65 50.6
5 30 76.50 48.80 0.00 12.76 63.3 OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
5 31 83.40 44.10 0.00 14.74 78.0
6 1 85.30 51.70 0.00 18.50 96.5
6 2 76.60 64.90 0.00 20.75 117.3
6 3 85.70 58.00 0.00 21.85 139.1
6 4 91.90 52.50 0.00 21.67 160.8
6 5 94.50 56.40 0.00 24.29 185.1
6 6 100.30 63.20 0.00 28.63 213.7 Vx
6 7 98.60 67.70 0.00 30.41 244.2 Vx 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
6 8 86.50 68.40 0.00 27.45 271.6
6 9 80.80 58.80 0.00 19.80 291.4
6 10 69.30 54.10 0.00 11.70 303.1
6 11 73.00 48.40 0.00 10.87 314.0
6 12 79.00 48.70 0.00 13.96 327.9 Vx
6 13 73.80 54.30 0.00 14.05 342.0
6 14 69.40 51.00 0.00 10.20 352.2 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
6 15 70.80 47.20 0.00 9.41 361.6
6 16 68.50 46.30 0.00 8.05 369.7
6 17 78.70 45.00 0.00 12.68 382.3
6 18 67.00 55.60 0.00 11.30 393.6
6 19 76.00 44.80 0.00 11.32 405.0
6 20 81.80 50.10 0.00 15.95 420.9 Vx
6 21 79.70 57.50 0.00 18.60 439.5
6 22 85.50 48.30 0.00 17.05 456.6
6 23 80.80 61.60 0.00 21.20 477.8
6 24 73.00 54.00 0.00 13.50 491.3
6 25 80.80 51.90 0.00 16.35 507.6 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
6 26 89.70 49.90 0.00 19.65 527.3
6 27 91.90 59.00 0.00 24.87 552.1
6 28 92.60 64.70 0.00 27.84 580.0
6 29 92.10 64.60 0.00 27.67 607.6
6 30 88.70 64.70 0.00 26.65 634.3
7 1 90.50 59.30 0.00 24.60 658.9
7 2 90.50 64.20 0.00 27.02 685.9 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
7 3 85.00 65.50 0.00 25.25 711.2
7 4 81.90 56.10 0.00 19.00 730.2
7 5 79.80 53.10 0.00 16.45 746.6
7 6 81.10 60.00 0.00 20.55 767.2
7 7 80.30 55.50 0.00 17.90 785.1
7 8 75.10 60.60 0.00 17.85 802.9
7 9 78.10 57.90 0.00 18.00 820.9
7 10 67.90 58.70 0.00 13.30 834.2
7 11 78.70 57.90 0.00 18.30 852.5
7 12 80.30 58.30 0.00 19.30 871.8
7 13 82.60 57.10 0.00 19.85 891.7
7 14 88.20 53.50 0.00 20.84 912.5
7 15 79.00 57.90 0.00 18.45 931.0
7 16 81.80 56.40 0.00 19.10 950.1
7 17 84.60 56.80 0.00 20.70 970.8
7 18 81.00 61.60 0.00 21.30 992.1
7 19 79.60 59.90 0.00 19.75 1011.8
7 20 86.50 61.10 0.00 23.80 1035.6
7 21 88.90 55.20 0.00 21.99 1057.6
7 22 82.20 62.70 0.00 22.45 1080.0 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7 23 81.80 55.70 0.00 18.75 1098.8
7 24 87.70 53.00 0.00 20.35 1119.1
7 25 97.10 58.30 0.00 25.78 1144.9 Vx
7 26 89.30 68.90 0.00 28.96 1173.9
7 27 91.10 65.90 0.00 28.03 1201.9
7 28 94.00 67.20 0.00 29.37 1231.3
7 29 96.40 64.70 0.00 28.66 1259.9
7 30 88.90 68.80 0.00 28.77 1288.7 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
7 31 83.70 60.90 0.00 22.30 1311.0
8 1 91.20 59.60 0.00 24.96 1336.0 Vx
8 2 80.00 62.10 0.00 21.05 1357.0
8 3 80.00 53.60 0.00 16.80 1373.8
8 4 89.10 51.80 0.00 20.37 1394.2
8 5 90.30 55.80 0.00 22.80 1417.0
8 6 85.60 61.30 0.00 23.45 1440.4
8 7 79.30 60.80 0.00 20.05 1460.5
8 8 74.80 54.50 0.00 14.65 1475.1
8 9 73.80 55.80 0.00 14.80 1489.9
8 10 82.80 56.30 0.00 19.55 1509.5 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
8 11 88.50 53.30 0.00 20.87 1530.4
8 12 92.40 55.10 0.00 23.10 1553.5
8 13 91.20 58.50 0.00 24.42 1577.9
8 14 93.20 66.20 0.00 28.71 1606.6
8 15 96.30 66.20 0.00 29.34 1635.9 Vx
8 16 90.50 63.20 0.00 26.53 1662.5
8 17 92.30 64.50 0.00 27.67 1690.1
8 18 93.40 61.50 0.00 26.49 1716.6
8 19 88.30 57.70 0.00 22.99 1739.6
8 20 89.60 54.10 0.00 21.71 1761.3 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
8 21 92.10 60.30 0.00 25.57 1786.9
8 22 78.50 55.20 0.00 16.85 1803.7
8 23 83.40 53.20 0.00 18.30 1822.0
8 24 87.70 54.90 0.00 21.30 1843.3 Vx
8 25 83.90 52.40 0.00 18.15 1861.5
8 26 89.60 52.60 0.00 20.96 1882.4
8 27 88.50 68.00 0.00 28.22 1910.7
8 28 89.50 64.20 0.00 26.69 1937.4 Vx
8 29 94.70 56.80 0.00 24.53 1961.9 Vx
8 30 80.00 62.40 0.00 21.20 1983.1
8 31 85.90 57.00 0.00 21.45 2004.5
9 1 80.50 59.10 0.00 19.80 2024.3
9 2 75.70 55.50 0.00 15.60 2039.9
9 3 76.80 54.80 0.00 15.80 2055.7
9 4 77.60 46.30 0.00 12.50 2068.2
9 5 76.00 49.30 0.00 12.70 2080.9 Vx
9 6 66.20 56.60 0.00 11.40 2092.3
9 7 77.50 56.90 0.00 17.20 2109.5
9 8 80.70 57.00 0.00 18.85 2128.4
9 9 81.90 47.60 0.00 15.02 2143.4
9 10 90.50 45.20 0.00 18.27 2161.7
9 11 79.20 56.20 0.00 17.70 2179.4
9 12 75.50 43.90 0.00 10.86 2190.2 Vx
9 13 74.30 39.80 0.00 9.48 2199.7
9 14 80.90 46.00 0.00 14.03 2213.7
9 15 85.50 52.40 0.00 18.95 2232.7
9 16 88.80 49.90 0.00 19.30 2252.0 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
9 17 71.60 61.70 0.00 16.65 2268.6
9 18 73.00 59.00 0.00 16.00 2284.6
9 19 68.20 57.80 0.00 13.00 2297.6 Vx
9 20 71.60 49.50 0.00 10.58 2308.2
9 21 67.40 42.10 0.00 6.69 2314.9
9 22 57.60 48.00 0.00 3.20 2318.1
9 23 67.80 50.10 0.00 8.95 2327.1
9 24 74.60 52.00 0.00 13.30 2340.4
9 25 86.10 47.00 0.00 16.90 2357.3
9 26 83.60 51.00 0.00 17.30 2374.6 Vx
9 27 88.00 56.70 0.00 22.35 2396.9
9 28 79.70 50.50 0.00 15.10 2412.0
9 29 83.00 49.00 0.00 16.07 2428.1
9 30 77.00 54.40 0.00 15.70 2443.8
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF25394 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
peach twig borer model - 2007 USU Ext.Location: 2016 MF25394 Brown Stephens Hill Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-30-16 | 63 | OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying |
6-7-16 | 244 | 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight |
6-14-16 | 352 | 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight |
6-25-16 | 508 | 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight |
7-2-16 | 686 | 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation |
7-22-16 | 1080 | 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight |
7-30-16 | 1289 | 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight |
8-10-16 | 1509 | 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight |
8-20-16 | 1761 | 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight |
9-16-16 | 2252 | 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight |