|
Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: peach twig borer [stone fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: 2007 USU Ext.
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: 1st consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
(ca. 405 DD after Mar 1 or Jan 1 in warm climates)
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 15
Ending date: 9 30
Model validation status: requires local validation
Region of known use: used in NW USA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 55 DDs after biofix: OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
2. 220 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
3. 350 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
4. 500 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
5. 684 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
6. 1080 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7. 1280 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
8. 1500 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
9. 1760 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
10. 2240 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
11. 2580 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 73% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 96% male flight
12. 2820 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 3rd gen. 4% male flight
13. 3180 DDs after biofix: 4th gen. ca. 13% egg hatch (warmer climates only)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF25352 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Davis Gawith Gala OR Lat:45.9689 Long:-118.4081 Elev:879
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 26 70.70 53.10 0.00 11.90 11.9 * START *Vx Vn
5 27 67.40 50.80 0.00 9.10 21.0 Vx Vn
5 28 75.30 49.10 0.00 12.27 33.3 Vx Vn
5 29 78.40 55.30 0.00 16.85 50.1 Vx Vn
5 30 76.30 49.30 0.00 12.85 63.0 Vx Vn OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
5 31 84.80 47.10 0.00 16.29 79.3 Vx Vn
6 1 85.30 54.00 0.00 19.65 98.9 Vx Vn
6 2 76.80 64.20 0.00 20.50 119.4 Vx Vn
6 3 86.40 58.90 0.00 22.65 142.1 Vx Vn
6 4 94.10 54.00 0.00 23.02 165.1 Vx Vn
6 5 95.60 59.00 0.00 25.80 190.9 Vx Vn
6 6 99.40 67.30 0.00 30.35 221.2 Vx Vn 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
6 7 98.30 69.00 0.00 30.95 252.2 Vx Vn
6 8 86.00 64.60 0.00 25.30 277.5 Vx Vn
6 9 78.50 58.40 0.00 18.45 295.9 Vx Vn
6 10 70.00 54.40 0.00 12.20 308.1 Vx Vn
6 11 72.10 50.00 0.00 11.05 319.2 Vx Vn
6 12 78.60 49.20 0.00 13.96 333.1 Vx Vn
6 13 74.90 58.40 0.00 16.65 349.8 Vx Vn
6 14 68.70 51.60 0.00 10.15 359.9 Vx Vn 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
6 15 67.90 47.20 0.00 7.99 367.9 Vx Vn
6 16 68.30 49.40 0.00 8.90 376.8 Vx Vn
6 17 78.50 48.80 0.00 13.75 390.6 Vx Vn
6 18 67.30 53.50 0.00 10.40 401.0 Vx Vn
6 19 77.20 46.70 0.00 12.42 413.4 Vx Vn
6 20 81.50 50.10 0.00 15.80 429.2 Vx Vn
6 21 79.80 58.50 0.00 19.15 448.3 Vx Vn
6 22 85.90 49.30 0.00 17.64 466.0 Vx Vn
6 23 81.50 61.80 0.00 21.65 487.6 Vx Vn
6 24 73.20 54.50 0.00 13.85 501.5 Vx Vn 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
6 25 81.50 51.80 0.00 16.65 518.1 Vx Vn
6 26 91.60 52.50 0.00 21.58 539.7 Vx Vn
6 27 93.50 60.40 0.00 25.98 565.7 Vx Vn
6 28 95.30 66.60 0.00 29.34 595.0 Vx Vn
6 29 94.50 65.30 0.00 28.57 623.6 Vx Vn
6 30 90.60 65.90 0.00 27.89 651.5 Vx Vn
7 1 89.00 63.20 0.00 26.02 677.5 Vx Vn
7 2 90.00 63.10 0.00 26.32 703.8 Vx Vn 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
7 3 85.60 64.80 0.00 25.20 729.0 Vx Vn
7 4 80.50 57.60 0.00 19.05 748.1 Vx Vn
7 5 78.20 55.40 0.00 16.80 764.9 Vx Vn
7 6 80.70 59.50 0.00 20.10 785.0 Vx Vn
7 7 81.60 60.50 0.00 21.05 806.0 Vx Vn
7 8 77.80 61.50 0.00 19.65 825.7 Vx Vn
7 9 78.00 58.30 0.00 18.15 843.8 Vx Vn
7 10 69.70 59.00 0.00 14.35 858.2 Vx Vn
7 11 80.80 59.00 0.00 19.90 878.1 Vx Vn
7 12 79.80 59.80 0.00 19.80 897.9 Vx Vn
7 13 83.40 56.70 0.00 20.05 917.9 Vx Vn
7 14 89.80 57.90 0.00 23.67 941.6 Vx Vn
7 15 81.40 58.10 0.00 19.75 961.4 Vx Vn
7 16 83.70 59.20 0.00 21.45 982.8 Vx Vn
7 17 88.10 58.00 0.00 23.05 1005.9 Vx Vn
7 18 80.80 61.50 0.00 21.15 1027.0 Vx Vn
7 19 80.00 60.50 0.00 20.25 1047.3 Vx Vn
7 20 87.40 61.10 0.00 24.25 1071.5 Vx Vn
7 21 95.20 56.90 0.00 24.70 1096.2 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7 22 83.00 64.60 0.00 23.80 1120.0 Vx Vn
7 23 84.10 59.50 0.00 21.80 1141.8 Vx Vn
7 24 90.40 55.10 0.00 22.48 1164.3 Vx Vn
7 25 96.90 60.00 0.00 26.55 1190.8 Vx Vn
7 26 95.90 72.40 0.00 32.13 1223.0 Vx Vn
7 27 95.20 69.40 0.00 30.64 1253.6 Vx Vn
7 28 99.40 68.80 0.00 31.02 1284.6 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
7 29 101.70 70.20 0.00 31.92 1316.5 Vx Vn
7 30 94.70 71.80 0.00 31.66 1348.2 Vx Vn
7 31 86.90 62.40 0.00 24.65 1372.8 Vx Vn
8 1 90.90 57.00 0.00 23.59 1396.4 Vx Vn
8 2 78.60 62.60 0.00 20.60 1417.0 Vx Vn
8 3 84.00 54.30 0.00 19.15 1436.2 Vx Vn
8 4 92.90 55.00 0.00 23.19 1459.4 Vx Vn
8 5 94.20 62.30 0.00 27.07 1486.4 Vx Vn
8 6 87.80 63.70 0.00 25.75 1512.2 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
8 7 82.70 61.30 0.00 22.00 1534.2 Vx Vn
8 8 76.50 53.60 0.00 15.05 1549.2 Vx Vn
8 9 74.60 57.00 0.00 15.80 1565.0 Vx Vn
8 10 84.30 56.00 0.00 20.15 1585.2 Vx Vn
8 11 90.30 57.60 0.00 23.69 1608.9 Vx Vn
8 12 95.70 61.30 0.00 26.92 1635.8 Vx Vn
8 13 97.70 65.40 0.00 29.22 1665.0 Vx Vn
8 14 95.60 69.90 0.00 30.94 1696.0 Vx Vn
8 15 96.00 63.90 0.00 28.21 1724.2 Vx Vn
8 16 95.70 64.90 0.00 28.62 1752.8 Vx Vn
8 17 95.10 63.90 0.00 28.03 1780.8 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
8 18 96.70 65.80 0.00 29.23 1810.0 Vx Vn
8 19 90.60 64.00 0.00 26.95 1837.0 Vx Vn
8 20 94.40 55.40 0.00 23.78 1860.8 Vx Vn
8 21 94.10 66.80 0.00 29.20 1890.0 Vx Vn
8 22 79.60 56.90 0.00 18.25 1908.2 Vx Vn
8 23 82.80 54.60 0.00 18.70 1926.9 Vx Vn
8 24 87.00 53.90 0.00 20.45 1947.4 Vx Vn
8 25 89.50 53.00 0.00 21.12 1968.5 Vx Vn
8 26 91.50 56.30 0.00 23.43 1991.9 Vx Vn
8 27 90.80 68.80 0.00 29.37 2021.3 Vx Vn
8 28 89.20 60.30 0.00 24.65 2045.9 Vx Vn
8 29 94.40 57.70 0.00 24.89 2070.8 Vx Vn
8 30 82.20 62.60 0.00 22.40 2093.2 Vx Vn
8 31 83.20 59.40 0.00 21.30 2114.5 Vx Vn
9 1 79.00 59.60 0.00 19.30 2133.8 Vx Vn
9 2 74.90 55.30 0.00 15.10 2148.9 Vx Vn
9 3 72.90 53.00 0.00 12.95 2161.9 Vx Vn
9 4 74.30 46.80 0.00 11.02 2172.9 Vx Vn
9 5 74.70 50.70 0.00 12.70 2185.6 Vx Vn
9 6 65.60 56.30 0.00 10.95 2196.6 Vx Vn
9 7 77.40 57.40 0.00 17.40 2214.0 Vx Vn
9 8 78.10 55.70 0.00 16.90 2230.9 Vx Vn
9 9 78.70 46.90 0.00 13.21 2244.1 Vx Vn 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
9 10 89.00 51.50 0.00 20.18 2264.2 Vx Vn
9 11 75.70 51.00 0.00 13.35 2277.6 Vx Vn
9 12 73.20 43.70 0.00 9.71 2287.3 Vx Vn
9 13 72.50 43.10 0.00 9.25 2296.6 Vx Vn
9 14 78.70 47.40 0.00 13.37 2309.9 Vx Vn
9 15 83.20 53.60 0.00 18.40 2328.3 Vx Vn
9 16 87.70 53.70 0.00 20.70 2349.0 Vx Vn
9 17 72.20 62.40 0.00 17.30 2366.3 Vx Vn
9 18 72.40 59.80 0.00 16.10 2382.4 Vx Vn
9 19 68.10 57.20 0.00 12.65 2395.1 Vx Vn
9 20 68.90 48.50 0.00 8.87 2404.0 Vx Vn
9 21 67.30 45.50 0.00 7.29 2411.2 Vx Vn
9 22 57.80 43.80 0.00 2.64 2413.9 Vx Vn
9 23 67.60 52.10 0.00 9.85 2423.7 Vx Vn
9 24 70.50 52.50 0.00 11.50 2435.2 Vx Vn
9 25 82.60 50.00 0.00 16.30 2451.5 Vx Vn
9 26 83.00 50.30 0.00 16.65 2468.2 Vx Vn
9 27 84.00 59.40 0.00 21.70 2489.9 Vx Vn
9 28 76.80 50.60 0.00 13.70 2503.6 Vx Vn
9 29 79.10 50.50 0.00 14.80 2518.4 Vx Vn
9 30 74.30 54.60 0.00 14.45 2532.8 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF25352 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
peach twig borer model - 2007 USU Ext.Location: 2016 MF25352 Davis Gawith Gala Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-30-16 | 63 | OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying |
6-6-16 | 221 | 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight |
6-14-16 | 360 | 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight |
6-24-16 | 501 | 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight |
7-2-16 | 704 | 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation |
7-21-16 | 1096 | 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight |
7-28-16 | 1285 | 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight |
8-6-16 | 1512 | 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight |
8-17-16 | 1781 | 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight |
9-9-16 | 2244 | 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight |