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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner et al 1997
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20
Ending date: 8 31
Model validation status: not fully tested
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch
2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch
5. 900 DD after 1st catch: Mostly small larvae present
6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: Mostly large larvae present
7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation
8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF22700 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Blue Mt Cherry OR Lat:45.9567 Long:-118.4367 Elev:869
mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 20 62.00 43.90 0.00 9.95 10.0 * START *
5 21 62.70 45.90 0.03 11.30 21.2
5 22 67.80 52.60 0.00 17.20 38.5
5 23 70.50 51.50 0.00 18.00 56.5 Vx
5 24 70.80 51.20 0.00 18.00 74.5
5 25 74.50 52.00 0.00 20.25 94.7
5 26 69.40 52.40 0.00 17.90 112.6
5 27 66.90 49.00 0.00 14.95 127.6
5 28 71.90 47.50 0.00 16.70 144.2 50% catch
5 29 75.60 54.60 0.00 22.10 166.3
5 30 73.40 47.40 0.00 17.40 183.8
5 31 81.30 44.70 0.00 20.00 203.8
6 1 82.40 51.40 0.00 23.90 227.7
6 2 76.80 64.20 0.00 27.50 255.2
6 3 84.70 57.50 0.00 28.10 283.2
6 4 90.90 52.90 0.00 27.90 311.1
6 5 92.60 55.50 0.00 29.56 340.7
6 6 99.80 64.50 0.00 34.88 375.6 Vx
6 7 97.80 64.50 0.00 34.63 410.2
6 8 89.90 69.60 0.00 35.70 445.9 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
6 9 79.70 59.60 0.00 26.65 472.6
6 10 69.80 53.00 0.06 18.40 491.0
6 11 71.50 50.90 0.00 18.20 509.2
6 12 81.40 48.40 0.00 21.90 531.1
6 13 75.80 52.90 0.00 21.35 552.4
6 14 70.90 51.20 0.00 18.05 570.5
6 15 71.50 48.20 0.00 16.85 587.3 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
6 16 70.60 49.00 0.02 16.80 604.1
6 17 78.20 46.50 0.00 19.35 623.5
6 18 68.00 54.60 0.14 18.30 641.8
6 19 76.50 43.90 0.00 17.20 659.0
6 20 81.50 46.80 0.00 21.15 680.1 Vx
6 21 80.00 56.20 0.00 25.10 705.2
6 22 84.30 50.20 0.00 24.25 729.5
6 23 79.00 61.30 0.00 27.15 756.6
6 24 71.00 52.90 0.02 18.95 775.6
6 25 79.60 52.40 0.00 23.00 798.6 95% egg hatch
6 26 87.00 50.10 0.00 25.35 823.9
6 27 89.30 52.10 0.00 27.07 851.0
6 28 90.70 63.60 0.00 33.02 884.0
6 29 88.30 60.80 0.00 31.06 915.1 Mostly small larvae present
6 30 87.90 63.50 0.00 32.27 947.3
7 1 86.70 58.50 0.00 29.42 976.8
7 2 88.20 62.20 0.00 31.72 1008.5
7 3 85.60 67.70 0.00 33.60 1042.1
7 4 81.70 56.00 0.00 25.85 1067.9
7 5 78.30 55.70 0.00 24.00 1091.9
7 6 77.70 59.70 0.00 25.70 1117.6
7 7 76.80 55.00 0.00 22.90 1140.5
7 8 71.50 59.00 0.15 22.25 1162.8
7 9 76.00 56.50 0.15 23.25 1186.0
7 10 65.70 56.60 0.00 18.15 1204.2 Mostly large larvae present
7 11 76.30 58.20 0.00 24.25 1228.4
7 12 75.00 57.30 0.04 23.15 1251.6
7 13 80.30 59.90 0.00 27.10 1278.7
7 14 84.70 54.10 0.00 26.40 1305.1
7 15 79.30 57.00 0.00 25.15 1330.2
7 16 80.30 59.70 0.00 27.00 1357.2
7 17 84.80 56.00 0.00 27.40 1384.6
7 18 78.90 58.60 0.00 25.75 1410.4
7 19 78.00 60.10 0.00 26.05 1436.4
7 20 79.80 60.00 0.00 26.90 1463.3
7 21 87.70 53.40 0.00 27.23 1490.6 5% catch next generation
7 22 80.00 64.10 0.00 29.05 1519.6
7 23 79.80 56.20 0.00 25.00 1544.6
7 24 86.10 52.20 0.00 26.07 1570.7
7 25 96.70 57.90 0.00 31.48 1602.2 Vx
7 26 90.00 69.00 0.00 35.44 1637.6
7 27 89.60 65.90 0.00 33.87 1671.5
7 28 92.10 63.60 0.00 33.31 1704.8
7 29 94.00 64.10 0.00 33.88 1738.7
7 30 92.10 70.00 0.00 36.28 1774.9
7 31 86.10 61.60 0.00 30.75 1805.7
8 1 90.60 57.30 0.00 29.96 1835.6 Vx
8 2 80.80 58.10 0.00 26.45 1862.1
8 3 79.80 57.60 0.00 25.70 1887.8
8 4 89.40 52.60 0.00 27.35 1915.1 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
8 5 90.90 55.20 0.00 29.01 1944.2
8 6 88.90 62.20 0.00 31.91 1976.1
8 7 84.70 58.20 0.00 28.45 2004.5
8 8 77.90 55.00 0.00 23.45 2028.0
8 9 72.80 54.90 0.00 20.85 2048.8
8 10 84.60 57.10 0.00 27.85 2076.7 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
8 11 92.80 52.10 0.00 27.97 2104.6
8 12 91.70 54.80 0.00 29.01 2133.7
8 13 91.80 55.20 0.00 29.23 2162.9
8 14 91.00 60.90 0.00 31.79 2194.7 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
8 15 95.70 60.70 0.00 32.60 2227.3 Vx
8 16 90.80 59.90 0.00 31.26 2258.5
8 17 88.90 62.40 0.00 32.01 2290.5
8 18 89.10 60.00 0.00 30.89 2321.4
8 19 85.40 56.20 0.00 27.78 2349.2
8 20 90.00 55.20 0.00 28.78 2378.0
8 21 92.20 64.00 0.00 33.51 2411.5
8 22 77.50 55.60 0.00 23.55 2435.1
8 23 80.80 51.20 0.00 23.00 2458.1
8 24 86.90 52.20 0.00 26.36 2484.4 Vx
8 25 86.60 50.90 0.00 25.61 2510.0
8 26 88.30 51.50 0.00 26.48 2536.5 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
8 27 90.90 70.00 0.00 36.08 2572.6
8 28 89.10 63.80 0.00 32.74 2605.3 Vx
8 29 91.90 53.80 0.00 28.58 2633.9 Vx
8 30 77.70 59.70 0.00 25.70 2659.6
8 31 82.60 57.60 0.00 27.10 2686.7
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF22700 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner et al 1997Location: 2016 MF22700 Blue Mt Cherry Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-28-16 | 144 | 50% catch |
6-8-16 | 446 | 95% catch, 1% egg hatch |
6-15-16 | 587 | 98% catch, 50% egg hatch |
6-25-16 | 799 | 95% egg hatch |
6-29-16 | 915 | Mostly small larvae present |
7-10-16 | 1204 | Mostly large larvae present |
7-21-16 | 1491 | 5% catch next generation |
8-4-16 | 1915 | 50% catch, 1% egg hatch |
8-10-16 | 2077 | 68% catch, 25% egg hatch |
8-14-16 | 2195 | 79% catch, 50% egg hatch |
8-26-16 | 2536 | 95% catch, 95% egg hatch |