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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: codling moth [apple & pear]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner and Hoyt 1987
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 1
Ending date: 10 31
Model validation status: Fully tested and in use
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 250 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 3% egg hatch
2. 360 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 20% egg hatch
3. 484 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 50% egg hatch
4. 610 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 75% egg hatch
5. 800 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 95% egg hatch
6. 1000 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence
7. 1260 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch
8. 1460 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch
9. 1580 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch
10. 1750 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch
11. 2100 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch
12. 2220 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch
13. 2430 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch
14. 2620 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 C1244 APRSWXNET Pendleton CW1244 OR Lat45.6733 Long:-118.8069 Elev:1145
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
4 10 74.00 42.00 0.00 9.74 9.7 * START *
4 11 77.00 39.00 0.08 10.59 20.3
4 12 66.00 50.00 0.08 8.00 28.3
4 13 62.00 44.00 0.08 4.53 32.9
4 14 61.00 42.00 0.03 3.81 36.7
4 15 66.00 43.00 0.03 6.19 42.9
4 16 72.00 35.00 0.00 7.74 50.6
4 17 74.00 38.00 0.00 9.05 59.7
4 18 83.00 41.00 0.00 13.81 73.5
4 19 83.00 43.00 0.00 14.27 87.7
4 20 84.30 43.10 0.00 14.92 102.7 Vx Vn
4 21 78.00 50.00 0.00 14.00 116.7
4 22 75.00 53.00 0.17 14.00 130.7
4 23 70.00 53.00 0.01 11.50 142.2
4 24 66.00 47.00 0.01 7.01 149.2
4 25 66.00 40.00 0.00 5.75 154.9
4 26 69.00 44.00 0.03 7.78 162.7
4 27 63.00 46.00 0.01 5.34 168.0
4 28 71.00 51.00 0.01 11.00 179.0
4 29 58.00 50.00 0.00 4.00 183.0
4 30 67.00 47.00 0.00 7.50 190.5
5 1 77.00 39.00 0.00 10.59 201.1
5 2 84.00 43.00 0.00 14.75 215.9
5 3 88.00 49.00 0.00 18.57 234.5
5 4 79.00 55.00 0.14 17.00 251.5 1st generation, 3% egg hatch
5 5 72.00 53.00 0.01 12.50 264.0
5 6 76.00 53.00 0.01 14.50 278.5
5 7 84.00 53.00 0.00 18.50 297.0
5 8 75.00 53.00 0.00 14.00 311.0
5 9 67.00 47.00 0.00 7.50 318.5
5 10 74.00 39.00 0.00 9.21 327.7
5 11 86.00 41.00 0.00 15.24 342.9
5 12 88.00 48.00 0.00 18.19 361.1 1st generation, 20% egg hatch
5 13 83.00 46.00 0.19 15.06 376.2
5 14 67.00 53.00 0.34 10.00 386.2
5 15 58.00 53.00 0.29 5.50 391.7
5 16 72.00 52.00 0.22 12.00 403.7
5 17 80.00 47.00 0.00 13.89 417.5
5 18 84.00 53.00 0.07 18.50 436.0
5 19 67.00 48.00 0.00 7.78 443.8
5 20 60.00 39.00 0.04 3.10 446.9
5 21 60.00 43.00 0.52 3.50 450.4
5 22 68.00 52.00 0.00 10.00 460.4
5 23 71.00 47.00 0.00 9.46 469.9
5 24 75.00 46.00 0.00 11.14 481.0
5 25 79.00 46.00 0.00 13.10 494.1 1st generation, 50% egg hatch
5 26 70.00 49.00 0.00 9.59 503.7
5 27 68.00 50.00 0.00 9.00 512.7
5 28 78.00 48.00 0.00 13.22 525.9
5 29 78.00 51.00 0.00 14.50 540.4
5 30 79.00 50.00 0.00 14.50 554.9
5 31 85.00 43.00 0.00 15.23 570.2
6 1 89.00 50.00 0.01 19.43 589.6
6 2 80.00 62.00 0.01 21.00 610.6 1st generation, 75% egg hatch
6 3 90.00 56.00 0.00 22.79 633.4
6 4 95.00 52.00 0.00 22.28 655.7
6 5 99.00 58.00 0.00 26.01 681.7
6 6 104.00 60.00 0.00 27.74 709.4
6 7 103.00 61.00 0.00 28.04 737.5
6 8 83.00 63.00 0.10 23.00 760.5
6 9 83.00 56.00 0.25 19.50 780.0
6 10 73.00 53.00 0.25 13.00 793.0
6 11 75.00 47.00 0.00 11.42 804.4 1st generation, 95% egg hatch
6 12 84.00 43.00 0.00 14.75 819.1
6 13 73.00 51.00 0.00 12.00 831.1
6 14 70.00 50.00 0.00 10.00 841.1
6 15 67.00 43.00 0.01 6.66 847.8
6 16 72.00 48.00 0.01 10.25 858.0
6 17 76.00 46.00 0.58 11.63 869.7
6 18 68.00 51.00 0.01 9.50 879.2
6 19 75.00 43.00 0.00 10.42 889.6
6 20 85.00 48.00 0.00 16.70 906.3
6 21 85.00 57.00 0.00 21.00 927.3
6 22 90.00 48.00 0.00 19.00 946.3
6 23 83.00 59.00 0.01 21.00 967.3
6 24 73.00 55.00 0.01 14.00 981.3
6 25 86.00 47.00 0.00 16.86 998.1
6 26 91.00 50.00 0.00 20.15 1018.3 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence
6 27 98.00 55.00 0.00 24.40 1042.7
6 28 99.00 59.00 0.00 26.48 1069.2
6 29 98.00 59.00 0.00 26.29 1095.4
6 30 94.00 59.00 0.00 25.43 1120.9
7 1 88.80 54.00 0.00 21.35 1142.2 Vx
7 2 90.50 58.30 0.00 24.10 1166.3 Vx Vn
7 3 84.40 65.80 0.00 25.10 1191.4 Vx Vn
7 4 81.00 57.00 0.00 19.00 1210.4 Vx Vn
7 5 78.30 52.60 0.00 15.45 1225.9 Vx Vn
7 6 85.00 57.00 0.00 21.00 1246.9
7 7 82.00 53.00 0.17 17.50 1264.4 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch
7 8 80.00 60.00 0.88 20.00 1284.4
7 9 78.00 58.00 0.25 18.00 1302.4
7 10 74.00 58.00 0.00 16.00 1318.4
7 11 85.00 57.00 0.08 21.00 1339.4
7 12 82.00 54.00 0.08 18.00 1357.4
7 13 88.00 56.00 0.00 22.00 1379.4
7 14 94.00 53.00 0.00 22.51 1401.9
7 15 85.00 58.00 0.00 21.50 1423.4
7 16 87.00 54.00 0.00 20.50 1443.9
7 17 91.00 55.00 0.00 22.63 1466.5 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch
7 18 84.00 62.00 0.00 23.00 1489.5
7 19 82.00 58.00 0.00 20.00 1509.5
7 20 92.00 60.00 0.00 25.39 1534.9
7 21 98.00 56.00 0.00 24.88 1559.8
7 22 85.00 65.00 0.00 25.00 1584.8 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch
7 23 89.00 54.00 0.00 21.43 1606.2
7 24 96.00 52.00 0.00 22.52 1628.7
7 25 102.00 57.00 0.00 26.07 1654.8
7 26 98.00 61.00 0.00 27.23 1682.0
7 27 99.00 59.00 0.00 26.48 1708.5
7 28 102.00 61.00 0.00 27.89 1736.4
7 29 104.00 63.00 0.00 29.07 1765.5 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch
7 30 96.00 68.00 0.00 30.13 1795.6
7 31 87.00 54.00 0.00 20.50 1816.1
8 1 92.00 51.00 0.00 20.96 1837.1
8 2 79.00 57.00 0.00 18.00 1855.1
8 3 87.00 53.00 0.00 20.00 1875.1
8 4 95.00 51.00 0.00 21.80 1896.9
8 5 96.00 55.00 0.00 23.97 1920.8
8 6 90.00 61.00 0.00 25.28 1946.1
8 7 83.00 54.00 0.00 18.50 1964.6
8 8 76.00 53.00 0.13 14.50 1979.1
8 9 78.00 56.00 0.04 17.00 1996.1
8 10 86.00 51.00 0.00 18.50 2014.6
8 11 93.00 52.00 0.00 21.75 2036.4
8 12 97.00 54.00 0.00 23.71 2060.1
8 13 99.00 57.00 0.00 25.54 2085.6
8 14 99.00 59.00 0.00 26.48 2112.1 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch
8 15 99.00 56.00 0.00 25.07 2137.2
8 16 98.00 54.00 0.00 23.93 2161.1
8 17 99.00 56.00 0.00 25.07 2186.2
8 18 99.00 58.00 0.00 26.01 2212.2
8 19 93.00 55.00 0.00 23.22 2235.4 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch
8 20 99.00 52.00 0.00 23.18 2258.6
8 21 95.00 56.00 0.00 24.22 2282.8
8 22 76.00 55.00 0.00 15.50 2298.3
8 23 86.00 45.00 0.00 16.25 2314.5
8 24 86.00 49.00 0.00 17.57 2332.1
8 25 90.00 50.00 0.00 19.81 2351.9
8 26 93.00 49.00 0.00 20.34 2372.3
8 27 91.00 57.00 0.00 23.62 2395.9
8 28 91.00 60.00 0.00 25.10 2421.0
8 29 94.00 55.00 0.00 23.49 2444.5 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch
8 30 78.00 61.00 0.00 19.50 2464.0
8 31 86.00 48.00 0.00 17.20 2481.2
9 1 76.00 58.00 0.00 17.00 2498.2
9 2 77.00 57.00 0.00 17.00 2515.2
9 3 75.00 51.00 0.00 13.00 2528.2
9 4 78.00 42.00 0.00 11.64 2539.8
9 5 79.00 47.00 0.30 13.39 2553.2
9 6 66.00 55.00 0.01 10.50 2563.7
9 7 79.00 56.00 0.00 17.50 2581.2
9 8 79.00 55.00 0.00 17.00 2598.2
9 9 81.00 44.00 0.00 13.54 2611.7
9 10 91.00 43.00 0.00 17.83 2629.6 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch
9 11 78.00 52.00 0.00 15.00 2644.6
9 12 73.00 40.00 0.00 8.91 2653.5
9 13 75.00 36.00 0.00 9.21 2662.7
9 14 81.00 37.00 0.00 12.10 2674.8
9 15 86.00 43.00 0.00 15.72 2690.5
9 16 91.00 45.00 0.01 18.38 2708.9
9 17 71.00 58.00 0.12 14.50 2723.4
9 18 72.00 57.00 0.00 14.50 2737.9
9 19 69.00 54.00 0.00 11.50 2749.4
9 20 71.00 48.00 0.00 9.75 2759.1
9 21 71.00 40.00 0.03 8.00 2767.1
9 22 58.00 45.00 0.12 2.87 2770.0
9 23 63.00 48.00 0.00 5.81 2775.8
9 24 75.00 48.00 0.00 11.73 2787.6
9 25 86.00 43.00 0.00 15.72 2803.3
9 26 90.00 48.00 0.00 19.00 2822.3
9 27 86.00 51.00 0.00 18.50 2840.8
9 28 82.00 49.00 0.00 15.57 2856.3
9 29 84.00 47.00 0.00 15.87 2872.2
9 30 74.00 48.00 0.00 11.24 2883.4
10 1 69.00 43.00 0.00 7.59 2891.0
10 2 69.00 35.00 0.00 6.45 2897.5
10 3 70.00 42.00 0.10 7.87 2905.4
10 4 68.00 44.00 0.10 7.31 2912.7
10 5 61.00 43.00 0.09 3.94 2916.6
10 6 65.00 51.00 0.08 8.00 2924.6
10 7 65.00 55.00 0.08 10.00 2934.6
10 8 78.00 49.00 0.00 13.58 2948.2
10 9 68.00 54.00 0.13 11.00 2959.2
10 10 66.00 44.00 0.13 6.37 2965.5
10 11 59.00 33.00 0.00 2.34 2967.9
10 12 61.00 29.00 0.07 2.84 2970.7
10 13 62.00 43.00 0.25 4.38 2975.1
10 14 68.00 55.00 0.05 11.50 2986.6
10 15 55.00 53.00 0.19 4.00 2990.6
10 16 62.70 46.30 0.04 5.26 2995.9 Vx Vn
10 17 61.80 45.70 0.03 4.72 3000.6 Vx Vn
10 18 58.20 43.80 0.03 2.81 3003.4 Vx Vn
10 19 54.00 52.00 0.00 3.00 3006.4
10 20 70.00 52.00 0.12 11.00 3017.4
10 21 57.00 50.00 0.16 3.50 3020.9
10 22 60.00 42.00 0.00 3.38 3024.3
10 23 58.00 41.00 0.00 2.46 3026.7
10 24 74.00 42.00 0.10 9.74 3036.5
10 25 64.00 47.00 0.25 6.04 3042.5
10 26 57.00 51.00 0.12 4.00 3046.5
10 27 55.00 48.00 0.03 1.97 3048.5
10 28 61.00 38.00 0.12 3.41 3051.9
10 29 50.00 45.00 0.18 0.00 3051.9
10 30 49.00 45.00 0.16 0.00 3051.9
10 31 58.00 45.00 0.00 2.87 3054.8
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 C1244 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
codling moth model - Brunner and Hoyt 1987Location: 2016 C1244 Pendleton CW1244 OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-4-16 | 251 | 1st generation, 3% egg hatch |
5-12-16 | 361 | 1st generation, 20% egg hatch |
5-25-16 | 494 | 1st generation, 50% egg hatch |
6-2-16 | 611 | 1st generation, 75% egg hatch |
6-11-16 | 804 | 1st generation, 95% egg hatch |
6-26-16 | 1018 | 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence |
7-7-16 | 1264 | 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch |
7-17-16 | 1467 | 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch |
7-22-16 | 1585 | 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch |
7-29-16 | 1765 | 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch |
8-14-16 | 2112 | 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch |
8-19-16 | 2235 | 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch |
8-29-16 | 2444 | 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch |
9-10-16 | 2630 | 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch |