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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: w. cherry fruit fly v2 [cherry E. of Cascades]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Jones et al 91,Song et al 2004
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 1
Ending date: 7 31
Model validation status: in general use, revised June 2011
Region of known use: dev. in UT (Cache Co.), WA (Chelan Co.), and Mid-Columbia OR
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 864 DDs after biofix: First trap catch - Hood River
2. 925 DDs after biofix: First trap catch - Mosier
3. 990 DDs after biofix: First trap catch - The Dalles
4. 1031 DDs after biofix: First trap catch - ID and Milton-Freewater
5. 1066 DDs after biofix: First trap catch - WA
6. 1664 DDs after biofix: 50% trap catch - all locations
7. 3049 DDs after biofix: Last trap catch - all locations
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF26036 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Davis Mackenzie Gala OR Lat:45.9714 Long:-118.4039 Elev:876
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
3 1 63.60 41.00 0.00 11.30 11.3 * START *
3 2 60.80 41.60 0.00 10.20 21.5
3 3 64.50 44.70 0.00 13.60 35.1
3 4 63.60 33.90 0.00 9.26 44.4
3 5 66.90 49.30 0.00 17.10 61.5
3 6 67.20 48.80 0.00 17.00 78.5
3 7 57.50 42.80 0.00 9.15 87.6
3 8 53.40 33.60 0.00 4.50 92.1
3 9 59.00 43.40 0.00 10.20 102.3
3 10 64.10 48.80 0.00 15.45 117.8
3 11 48.30 34.80 0.00 2.43 120.2
3 12 52.90 40.40 0.00 5.71 125.9
3 13 59.20 37.40 0.00 7.93 133.8
3 14 53.90 39.00 0.00 5.77 139.6
3 15 51.90 40.00 0.00 5.07 144.7
3 16 55.40 38.50 0.00 6.36 151.0
3 17 54.90 33.90 0.00 5.22 156.3
3 18 57.90 29.20 0.00 5.91 162.2
3 19 63.00 34.20 0.00 9.04 171.2
3 20 60.80 37.10 0.00 8.63 179.8
3 21 63.70 42.10 0.00 11.90 191.7
3 22 53.50 44.30 0.00 7.90 199.6
3 23 60.40 45.00 0.00 11.70 211.3
3 24 56.70 47.30 0.00 11.00 222.3
3 25 56.50 43.10 0.00 8.80 231.1
3 26 62.90 39.70 0.00 10.43 241.6
3 27 57.40 45.30 0.00 10.35 251.9
3 28 51.20 39.20 0.00 4.50 256.4 Vx
3 29 63.50 36.40 0.00 9.77 266.2
3 30 64.60 34.80 0.00 9.93 276.1
3 31 72.00 48.00 0.00 19.00 295.1
4 1 77.10 44.50 0.00 19.80 314.9
4 2 77.80 49.90 0.00 22.85 337.8
4 3 76.80 48.90 0.00 21.85 359.6
4 4 60.30 46.20 0.00 12.25 371.9
4 5 65.10 42.80 0.00 12.95 384.8
4 6 75.00 39.10 0.00 16.24 401.1
4 7 73.50 38.10 0.00 15.15 416.2
4 8 79.50 46.00 0.00 21.75 438.0
4 9 82.00 57.70 0.00 28.85 466.8
4 10 75.20 51.30 0.00 22.25 489.1
4 11 71.10 47.90 0.00 18.50 507.6
4 12 69.70 51.20 0.00 19.45 527.0
4 13 65.00 48.70 0.00 15.85 542.9
4 14 64.70 44.00 0.00 13.35 556.2
4 15 66.10 45.20 0.00 14.65 570.9
4 16 71.50 36.90 0.00 13.81 584.7
4 17 77.10 38.60 0.00 17.11 601.8
4 18 79.60 39.70 0.00 18.75 620.5
4 19 83.90 45.30 0.00 23.60 644.1
4 20 84.80 44.30 0.00 23.55 667.7
4 21 78.80 52.50 0.00 24.65 692.3
4 22 77.20 53.10 0.00 24.15 716.5
4 23 71.70 52.50 0.00 21.10 737.6
4 24 67.70 49.60 0.00 17.65 755.2
4 25 66.40 41.50 0.00 12.95 768.2
4 26 64.30 42.90 0.00 12.60 780.8
4 27 61.50 48.10 0.00 13.80 794.6
4 28 69.70 50.30 0.00 19.00 813.6
4 29 58.00 49.90 0.00 12.95 826.5
4 30 68.10 48.00 0.00 17.05 843.6
5 1 77.40 40.40 0.00 17.93 861.5
5 2 84.80 45.00 0.00 23.90 885.4 First trap catch - Hood River
5 3 68.70 66.50 0.00 26.60 912.0 Hx
5 4 78.10 57.00 0.00 26.55 938.5 First trap catch - Mosier
5 5 69.30 45.70 0.00 16.50 955.0 Hx Hn
5 6 76.00 51.20 0.00 22.60 977.6
5 7 82.40 52.60 0.00 26.50 1004.1 First trap catch - The Dalles
5 8 79.10 60.10 0.00 28.60 1032.7 First trap catch - ID and Milton-Freewater
5 9 65.00 47.70 0.00 15.35 1048.1
5 10 77.80 40.00 0.00 17.97 1066.1 Vx First trap catch - WA
5 11 83.20 46.00 0.00 23.60 1089.7 Vx Vn
5 12 84.60 63.00 0.00 32.80 1122.5
5 13 82.40 46.80 0.00 23.60 1146.1
5 14 68.00 54.10 0.00 20.05 1166.1
5 15 58.90 52.00 0.00 14.45 1180.6
5 16 72.80 52.50 0.00 21.65 1202.2
5 17 78.40 50.70 0.00 23.55 1225.8
5 18 82.90 57.80 0.00 29.35 1255.1
5 19 67.70 49.50 0.00 17.60 1272.7
5 20 61.90 43.70 0.00 11.80 1284.5
5 21 66.30 45.50 0.00 14.90 1299.4
5 22 67.40 51.70 0.00 18.55 1318.0
5 23 70.40 51.20 0.00 19.80 1337.8 Vx
5 24 76.60 51.60 0.00 23.10 1360.9
5 25 78.20 48.70 0.00 22.45 1383.3
5 26 70.80 51.90 0.00 20.35 1403.7
5 27 68.80 50.90 0.00 18.85 1422.5
5 28 75.70 49.70 0.00 21.70 1444.2
5 29 78.70 54.80 0.00 25.75 1470.0
5 30 76.30 47.40 0.00 20.85 1490.8 Vx
5 31 83.70 45.90 0.00 23.80 1514.6
6 1 84.40 51.30 0.00 26.85 1541.5
6 2 76.60 65.20 0.00 29.90 1571.4
6 3 87.40 56.30 0.00 30.85 1602.2
6 4 94.00 51.70 0.00 31.85 1634.1
6 5 94.80 55.20 0.00 34.00 1668.1 50% trap catch - all locations
6 6 99.80 66.20 0.00 42.00 1710.1 Vx
6 7 96.70 67.00 0.00 40.85 1750.9
6 8 87.30 73.00 0.00 39.15 1790.1
6 9 78.50 58.70 0.00 27.60 1817.7 Vx
6 10 69.10 54.50 0.00 20.80 1838.5
6 11 72.10 50.00 0.00 20.05 1858.5 Vx Vn
6 12 78.60 49.20 0.00 22.90 1881.4 Vx Vn
6 13 75.00 58.40 0.00 25.70 1907.1 Vx Vn
6 14 68.80 51.60 0.00 19.20 1926.3 Vx Vn
6 15 67.90 46.80 0.00 16.35 1942.7 Vx Vn
6 16 68.40 49.40 0.00 17.90 1960.6 Vx Vn
6 17 78.60 48.80 0.00 22.70 1983.3 Vx Vn
6 18 67.30 55.60 0.00 20.45 2003.7 Vx
6 19 77.20 46.70 0.00 20.95 2024.7 Vx Vn
6 20 81.50 50.10 0.00 24.80 2049.5 Vx Vn
6 21 79.80 58.50 0.00 28.15 2077.6 Vx Vn
6 22 85.90 49.40 0.00 26.65 2104.3 Vx Vn
6 23 81.60 61.60 0.00 30.60 2134.9 Vx Vn
6 24 73.20 54.70 0.00 22.95 2157.8 Vx
6 25 81.50 51.80 0.00 25.65 2183.5 Vx Vn
6 26 91.60 52.50 0.00 31.05 2214.5 Vx Vn
6 27 93.60 60.40 0.00 36.00 2250.5 Vx Vn
6 28 95.30 66.60 0.00 39.95 2290.5 Vx Vn
6 29 94.60 65.40 0.00 39.00 2329.5 Vx Vn
6 30 90.70 66.30 0.00 37.50 2367.0 Vx Vn
7 1 89.00 63.30 0.00 35.15 2402.1 Vx Vn
7 2 90.00 63.10 0.00 35.55 2437.7 Vx Vn
7 3 85.70 64.80 0.00 34.25 2471.9 Vx Vn
7 4 80.50 57.60 0.00 28.05 2500.0 Vx Vn
7 5 78.20 55.40 0.00 25.80 2525.8 Vx Vn
7 6 80.70 59.40 0.00 29.05 2554.8 Vx Vn
7 7 81.50 60.50 0.00 30.00 2584.8 Vx Vn
7 8 77.90 60.70 0.00 28.30 2613.1 Vx
7 9 77.00 57.60 0.00 26.30 2639.4
7 10 67.80 58.00 0.00 21.90 2661.3
7 11 80.80 58.50 0.00 28.65 2690.0 Vx
7 12 79.30 56.80 0.00 27.05 2717.0
7 13 83.40 57.50 0.00 29.45 2746.5 Vx
7 14 89.80 53.70 0.00 30.75 2777.2 Vx
7 15 81.50 58.70 0.00 29.10 2806.3 Vx
7 16 83.70 58.10 0.00 29.90 2836.2 Vx
7 17 88.10 56.70 0.00 31.40 2867.6 Vx
7 18 80.80 59.60 0.00 29.20 2896.8 Vx
7 19 80.20 58.20 0.00 28.20 2925.0 Vx
7 20 87.40 62.50 0.00 33.95 2959.0 Vx
7 21 95.20 54.50 0.00 33.85 2992.8 Vx
7 22 83.00 64.60 0.00 32.80 3025.6 Vx Vn
7 23 78.70 55.40 0.00 26.05 3051.7 Last trap catch - all locations
7 24 90.40 53.50 0.00 30.95 3082.6 Vx
7 25 96.90 59.80 0.00 37.35 3120.0 Vx
7 26 95.90 72.40 0.00 43.15 3163.1 Vx Vn
7 27 88.10 66.50 0.00 36.30 3199.4
7 28 91.10 66.60 0.00 37.85 3237.3
7 29 101.70 65.40 0.00 42.55 3279.8 Vx
7 30 94.70 71.80 0.00 42.25 3322.1 Vx Vn
7 31 87.00 62.40 0.00 33.70 3355.8 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF26036 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
w. cherry fruit fly v2 model - Jones et al 91Location: 2016 MF26036 Davis Mackenzie Gala Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-2-16 | 885 | First trap catch - Hood River |
5-4-16 | 939 | First trap catch - Mosier |
5-7-16 | 1004 | First trap catch - The Dalles |
5-8-16 | 1033 | First trap catch - ID and Milton-Freewater |
5-10-16 | 1066 | First trap catch - WA |
6-5-16 | 1668 | 50% trap catch - all locations |
7-23-16 | 3052 | Last trap catch - all locations |