|
Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: peach twig borer [stone fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: 2007 USU Ext.
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: 1st consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
(ca. 405 DD after Mar 1 or Jan 1 in warm climates)
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 15
Ending date: 9 30
Model validation status: requires local validation
Region of known use: used in NW USA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 55 DDs after biofix: OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
2. 220 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
3. 350 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
4. 500 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
5. 684 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
6. 1080 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7. 1280 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
8. 1500 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
9. 1760 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
10. 2240 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
11. 2580 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 73% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 96% male flight
12. 2820 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 3rd gen. 4% male flight
13. 3180 DDs after biofix: 4th gen. ca. 13% egg hatch (warmer climates only)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF26038 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Davis Benito OR Lat45.9742 Long:-118.4092 Elev:866
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 26 70.60 53.20 0.00 11.90 11.9 * START *
5 27 68.30 50.90 0.00 9.60 21.5
5 28 76.50 49.30 0.00 12.95 34.4
5 29 79.00 54.30 0.00 16.65 51.1
5 30 76.40 45.10 0.00 11.59 62.7 Vx OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
5 31 83.20 40.50 0.00 13.80 76.5
6 1 84.40 50.10 0.00 17.25 93.7
6 2 76.30 65.20 0.00 20.75 114.5
6 3 86.80 55.00 0.00 20.90 135.4
6 4 91.90 50.50 0.00 20.69 156.1
6 5 92.30 53.80 0.00 22.43 178.5
6 6 99.50 61.90 0.00 27.91 206.4 Vx
6 7 93.00 63.80 0.00 27.51 233.9 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
6 8 85.30 68.00 0.00 26.65 260.6
6 9 77.60 57.50 0.00 17.55 278.1
6 10 67.20 53.60 0.00 10.40 288.5
6 11 72.80 46.90 0.00 10.31 298.8
6 12 79.20 46.10 0.00 13.22 312.1
6 13 74.60 54.10 0.00 14.35 326.4
6 14 69.10 51.40 0.00 10.25 336.7
6 15 67.80 45.90 0.00 7.62 344.3
6 16 69.20 45.70 0.00 8.25 352.5 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
6 17 76.80 44.30 0.00 11.58 364.1
6 18 67.20 55.60 0.00 11.40 375.5
6 19 76.20 42.20 0.00 10.82 386.3
6 20 81.50 47.10 0.00 14.66 401.0 Vx
6 21 79.90 58.30 0.00 19.10 420.1
6 22 85.00 46.00 0.00 16.05 436.1
6 23 80.40 62.00 0.00 21.20 457.3
6 24 72.80 53.80 0.00 13.30 470.6
6 25 79.80 49.30 0.00 14.59 485.2
6 26 87.90 47.50 0.00 17.97 503.2 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
6 27 91.20 54.40 0.00 22.40 525.6
6 28 92.60 62.40 0.00 26.73 552.3
6 29 93.00 60.10 0.00 25.71 578.0
6 30 87.30 63.90 0.00 25.60 603.6
7 1 87.00 57.00 0.00 22.00 625.6
7 2 89.00 61.90 0.00 25.37 651.0
7 3 85.00 66.80 0.00 25.90 676.9
7 4 81.10 53.40 0.00 17.25 694.1 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
7 5 80.50 51.60 0.00 16.05 710.2
7 6 81.50 59.20 0.00 20.35 730.5
7 7 80.00 56.80 0.00 18.40 748.9
7 8 77.20 60.40 0.00 18.80 767.7
7 9 77.10 57.90 0.00 17.50 785.2
7 10 67.70 58.30 0.00 13.00 798.2
7 11 79.40 58.70 0.00 19.05 817.3
7 12 79.00 56.30 0.00 17.65 834.9
7 13 83.70 56.80 0.00 20.25 855.2
7 14 88.90 51.50 0.00 20.14 875.3
7 15 81.70 56.80 0.00 19.25 894.6
7 16 82.50 55.50 0.00 19.00 913.6
7 17 85.50 54.40 0.00 19.95 933.5
7 18 80.00 58.90 0.00 19.45 953.0
7 19 78.80 56.80 0.00 17.80 970.8
7 20 86.30 58.70 0.00 22.50 993.3
7 21 92.60 52.80 0.00 22.03 1015.3
7 22 81.30 60.30 0.00 20.80 1036.1
7 23 83.00 53.50 0.00 18.25 1054.4
7 24 88.90 51.00 0.00 19.89 1074.2
7 25 96.90 55.60 0.00 24.46 1098.7 Vx 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7 26 92.80 66.60 0.00 28.81 1127.5
7 27 92.60 64.10 0.00 27.55 1155.1
7 28 94.70 64.30 0.00 28.13 1183.2
7 29 96.30 63.00 0.00 27.84 1211.0
7 30 90.50 66.50 0.00 28.15 1239.2
7 31 83.60 57.80 0.00 20.70 1259.9
8 1 86.10 57.90 0.00 22.00 1281.9 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
8 2 79.20 59.30 0.00 19.25 1301.1
8 3 82.60 52.00 0.00 17.30 1318.4
8 4 91.30 49.30 0.00 19.94 1338.4
8 5 89.60 52.70 0.00 21.01 1359.4
8 6 85.00 59.30 0.00 22.15 1381.5
8 7 82.90 58.40 0.00 20.65 1402.2
8 8 76.50 51.30 0.00 13.90 1416.1 Vx
8 9 73.20 55.10 0.00 14.15 1430.2
8 10 80.30 53.00 0.00 16.65 1446.9
8 11 88.50 52.00 0.00 20.23 1467.1
8 12 92.80 53.60 0.00 22.48 1489.6
8 13 90.50 56.60 0.00 23.26 1512.9 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
8 14 90.90 61.60 0.00 25.86 1538.7
8 15 96.10 62.10 0.00 27.38 1566.1 Vx
8 16 90.20 60.50 0.00 25.09 1591.2
8 17 91.30 60.90 0.00 25.63 1616.8
8 18 96.80 58.50 0.00 25.82 1642.6 Vx
8 19 87.40 55.70 0.00 21.55 1664.2
8 20 90.60 50.30 0.00 20.17 1684.4
8 21 93.70 55.70 0.00 23.75 1708.1 Vx
8 22 79.50 52.60 0.00 16.05 1724.2 Vx
8 23 80.80 50.10 0.00 15.45 1739.6
8 24 82.90 53.50 0.00 18.20 1757.8
8 25 85.20 49.40 0.00 17.33 1775.1 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
8 26 86.50 48.10 0.00 17.48 1792.6
8 27 86.60 60.80 0.00 23.70 1816.3
8 28 86.20 60.20 0.00 23.20 1839.5 Vn
8 29 94.40 53.90 0.00 23.05 1862.6 Vx
8 30 79.20 57.50 0.00 18.35 1880.9
8 31 81.70 53.30 0.00 17.50 1898.4
9 1 79.40 62.00 0.00 20.70 1919.1 Vx
9 2 74.50 55.50 0.00 15.00 1934.1
9 3 73.10 55.00 0.00 14.05 1948.2
9 4 74.40 43.10 0.00 10.16 1958.3 Vx
9 5 74.80 47.20 0.00 11.38 1969.7 Vx
9 6 64.30 56.20 0.00 10.25 1980.0
9 7 75.70 55.00 0.00 15.35 1995.3
9 8 77.30 55.30 0.00 16.30 2011.6
9 9 77.50 45.20 0.00 12.15 2023.8
9 10 85.80 43.40 0.00 15.72 2039.5
9 11 76.00 53.80 0.00 14.90 2054.4
9 12 73.30 41.10 0.00 9.25 2063.6 Vx
9 13 70.30 36.20 0.00 7.15 2070.8
9 14 76.50 43.90 0.00 11.34 2082.1
9 15 83.30 44.50 0.00 14.79 2096.9 Vx
9 16 87.70 48.50 0.00 18.22 2115.1 Vx
9 17 69.20 62.00 0.00 15.60 2130.7
9 18 72.60 57.00 0.00 14.80 2145.5 Vx
9 19 68.20 56.70 0.00 12.45 2158.0 Vx
9 20 68.00 48.00 0.00 8.27 2166.3
9 21 64.70 40.80 0.00 5.28 2171.5
9 22 57.80 46.20 0.00 2.96 2174.5 Vx
9 23 66.20 49.20 0.00 7.77 2182.3
9 24 69.80 51.70 0.00 10.75 2193.0
9 25 82.70 44.20 0.00 14.42 2207.4 Vx
9 26 83.10 46.50 0.00 15.26 2222.7 Vx
9 27 81.50 54.60 0.00 18.05 2240.8 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
9 28 73.60 47.50 0.00 10.88 2251.6
9 29 79.10 46.10 0.00 13.18 2264.8 Vx
9 30 72.40 51.90 0.00 12.15 2277.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF26038 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
peach twig borer model - 2007 USU Ext.Location: 2016 MF26038 Davis Benito OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-30-16 | 63 | OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying |
| 6-7-16 | 234 | 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight |
| 6-16-16 | 353 | 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight |
| 6-26-16 | 503 | 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight |
| 7-4-16 | 694 | 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation |
| 7-25-16 | 1099 | 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight |
| 8-1-16 | 1282 | 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight |
| 8-13-16 | 1513 | 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight |
| 8-25-16 | 1775 | 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight |
| 9-27-16 | 2241 | 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight |
![degree-day graph of peach twig borer [stone fruits] 2007 USU Ext.](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1770)
