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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: peach twig borer [stone fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: 2007 USU Ext.
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: 1st consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
(ca. 405 DD after Mar 1 or Jan 1 in warm climates)
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 15
Ending date: 9 30
Model validation status: requires local validation
Region of known use: used in NW USA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 55 DDs after biofix: OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
2. 220 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
3. 350 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
4. 500 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
5. 684 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
6. 1080 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7. 1280 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
8. 1500 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
9. 1760 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
10. 2240 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
11. 2580 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 73% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 96% male flight
12. 2820 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 3rd gen. 4% male flight
13. 3180 DDs after biofix: 4th gen. ca. 13% egg hatch (warmer climates only)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF25976 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Davis Nash Gala OR Lat:45.9667 Long:-118.4167 Elev:882
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 26 70.50 53.70 0.00 12.10 12.1 * START *Vx Vn
5 27 67.50 50.80 0.00 9.15 21.2 Vx Vn
5 28 75.40 49.10 0.00 12.32 33.6 Vx Vn
5 29 78.50 55.30 0.00 16.90 50.5 Vx Vn
5 30 76.30 49.30 0.00 12.85 63.3 Vx Vn OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
5 31 84.80 47.20 0.00 16.33 79.6 Vx Vn
6 1 85.30 54.00 0.00 19.65 99.3 Vx Vn
6 2 76.90 64.20 0.00 20.55 119.8 Vx Vn
6 3 86.80 59.00 0.00 22.90 142.7 Vx Vn
6 4 94.10 54.10 0.00 23.07 165.8 Vx Vn
6 5 95.50 59.00 0.00 25.78 191.6 Vx Vn
6 6 99.40 67.30 0.00 30.35 221.9 Vx Vn 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
6 7 98.30 69.00 0.00 30.95 252.9 Vx Vn
6 8 86.00 64.60 0.00 25.30 278.2 Vx Vn
6 9 78.20 58.30 0.00 18.25 296.4 Vx Vn
6 10 70.00 54.40 0.00 12.20 308.6 Vx Vn
6 11 72.10 50.00 0.00 11.05 319.7 Vx Vn
6 12 78.60 49.20 0.00 13.96 333.7 Vx Vn
6 13 74.90 58.40 0.00 16.65 350.3 Vx Vn 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
6 14 68.70 51.60 0.00 10.15 360.5 Vx Vn
6 15 68.10 47.90 0.00 8.29 368.7 Vx Vn
6 16 68.30 49.10 0.00 8.78 377.5 Vx Vn
6 17 80.20 48.80 0.00 14.60 392.1 Vx Vn
6 18 67.30 53.40 0.00 10.35 402.5 Vx Vn
6 19 77.20 46.70 0.00 12.42 414.9 Vx Vn
6 20 81.50 50.10 0.00 15.80 430.7 Vx Vn
6 21 79.80 57.90 0.00 18.85 449.5 Vx Vn
6 22 85.70 48.70 0.00 17.30 466.8 Vx Vn
6 23 81.50 62.30 0.00 21.90 488.7 Vx Vn
6 24 73.80 54.40 0.00 14.10 502.8 Vx Vn 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
6 25 81.50 51.80 0.00 16.65 519.5 Vx Vn
6 26 91.50 52.50 0.00 21.55 541.0 Vx Vn
6 27 93.50 60.40 0.00 25.98 567.0 Vx Vn
6 28 95.20 66.60 0.00 29.32 596.4 Vx Vn
6 29 94.50 65.10 0.00 28.47 624.8 Vx Vn
6 30 90.40 65.80 0.00 27.78 652.6 Vx Vn
7 1 89.00 63.20 0.00 26.02 678.6 Vx Vn
7 2 90.00 63.10 0.00 26.32 704.9 Vx Vn 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
7 3 85.60 64.80 0.00 25.20 730.1 Vx Vn
7 4 80.50 57.60 0.00 19.05 749.2 Vx Vn
7 5 78.40 55.40 0.00 16.90 766.1 Vx Vn
7 6 81.20 59.60 0.00 20.40 786.5 Vx Vn
7 7 81.60 60.50 0.00 21.05 807.5 Vx Vn
7 8 77.80 61.50 0.00 19.65 827.2 Vx Vn
7 9 78.00 58.30 0.00 18.15 845.3 Vx Vn
7 10 69.80 59.00 0.00 14.40 859.7 Vx Vn
7 11 80.80 59.00 0.00 19.90 879.6 Vx Vn
7 12 79.80 59.80 0.00 19.80 899.4 Vx Vn
7 13 83.40 56.70 0.00 20.05 919.5 Vx Vn
7 14 89.80 57.90 0.00 23.67 943.2 Vx Vn
7 15 81.40 57.90 0.00 19.65 962.8 Vx Vn
7 16 83.70 59.20 0.00 21.45 984.3 Vx Vn
7 17 88.00 58.00 0.00 23.00 1007.3 Vx Vn
7 18 80.80 61.50 0.00 21.15 1028.4 Vx Vn
7 19 79.70 60.40 0.00 20.05 1048.5 Vx Vn
7 20 87.40 61.10 0.00 24.25 1072.7 Vx Vn
7 21 95.20 57.00 0.00 24.75 1097.4 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7 22 83.00 64.70 0.00 23.85 1121.3 Vx Vn
7 23 84.10 59.00 0.00 21.55 1142.8 Vx Vn
7 24 90.20 54.50 0.00 22.12 1165.0 Vx Vn
7 25 96.90 59.80 0.00 26.45 1191.4 Vx Vn
7 26 95.90 72.40 0.00 32.13 1223.6 Vx Vn
7 27 95.20 69.40 0.00 30.64 1254.2 Vx Vn
7 28 99.40 68.80 0.00 31.02 1285.2 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
7 29 101.70 70.20 0.00 31.92 1317.1 Vx Vn
7 30 94.70 71.80 0.00 31.66 1348.8 Vx Vn
7 31 86.90 62.50 0.00 24.70 1373.5 Vx Vn
8 1 90.90 57.00 0.00 23.59 1397.1 Vx Vn
8 2 78.60 62.10 0.00 20.35 1417.4 Vx Vn
8 3 84.00 55.20 0.00 19.60 1437.0 Vx Vn
8 4 92.90 55.00 0.00 23.19 1460.2 Vx Vn
8 5 94.20 63.30 0.00 27.55 1487.8 Vx Vn
8 6 87.90 61.30 0.00 24.60 1512.4 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
8 7 82.90 62.40 0.00 22.65 1535.0 Vx Vn
8 8 77.10 53.50 0.00 15.30 1550.3 Vx Vn
8 9 74.60 56.90 0.00 15.75 1566.1 Vx Vn
8 10 84.30 56.00 0.00 20.15 1586.2 Vx Vn
8 11 90.30 57.60 0.00 23.69 1609.9 Vx Vn
8 12 95.70 61.30 0.00 26.92 1636.8 Vx Vn
8 13 97.70 65.40 0.00 29.22 1666.0 Vx Vn
8 14 95.60 70.50 0.00 31.22 1697.3 Vx Vn
8 15 95.80 63.10 0.00 27.79 1725.0 Vx Vn
8 16 95.70 64.90 0.00 28.62 1753.7 Vx Vn
8 17 95.00 63.90 0.00 28.01 1781.7 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
8 18 96.70 65.80 0.00 29.23 1810.9 Vx Vn
8 19 90.60 64.00 0.00 26.95 1837.9 Vx Vn
8 20 94.40 55.40 0.00 23.78 1861.6 Vx Vn
8 21 94.00 66.90 0.00 29.22 1890.9 Vx Vn
8 22 79.50 56.90 0.00 18.20 1909.1 Vx Vn
8 23 82.80 54.60 0.00 18.70 1927.8 Vx Vn
8 24 87.00 53.90 0.00 20.45 1948.2 Vx Vn
8 25 89.50 53.00 0.00 21.12 1969.3 Vx Vn
8 26 91.40 57.10 0.00 23.79 1993.1 Vx Vn
8 27 90.80 68.80 0.00 29.37 2022.5 Vx Vn
8 28 89.20 60.40 0.00 24.70 2047.2 Vx Vn
8 29 94.30 57.70 0.00 24.87 2072.1 Vx Vn
8 30 82.20 61.90 0.00 22.05 2094.1 Vx Vn
8 31 83.20 59.40 0.00 21.30 2115.4 Vx Vn
9 1 79.00 59.60 0.00 19.30 2134.7 Vx Vn
9 2 74.90 55.20 0.00 15.05 2149.8 Vx Vn
9 3 72.90 52.60 0.00 12.75 2162.5 Vx Vn
9 4 74.30 46.90 0.00 11.05 2173.6 Vx Vn
9 5 74.70 50.70 0.00 12.70 2186.3 Vx Vn
9 6 65.60 56.00 0.00 10.80 2197.1 Vx Vn
9 7 77.40 57.40 0.00 17.40 2214.5 Vx Vn
9 8 78.10 56.30 0.00 17.20 2231.7 Vx Vn
9 9 78.70 46.90 0.00 13.21 2244.9 Vx Vn 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
9 10 89.00 51.60 0.00 20.23 2265.1 Vx Vn
9 11 75.60 50.80 0.00 13.20 2278.3 Vx Vn
9 12 73.20 43.50 0.00 9.67 2288.0 Vx Vn
9 13 72.50 43.10 0.00 9.25 2297.2 Vx Vn
9 14 78.70 46.80 0.00 13.18 2310.4 Vx Vn
9 15 83.20 53.60 0.00 18.40 2328.8 Vx Vn
9 16 87.70 53.80 0.00 20.75 2349.6 Vx Vn
9 17 72.20 62.40 0.00 17.30 2366.9 Vx Vn
9 18 72.30 59.90 0.00 16.10 2383.0 Vx Vn
9 19 68.10 57.20 0.00 12.65 2395.6 Vx Vn
9 20 69.40 49.10 0.00 9.33 2404.9 Vx Vn
9 21 67.30 45.50 0.00 7.29 2412.2 Vx Vn
9 22 57.40 43.60 0.00 2.45 2414.7 Vx Vn
9 23 67.60 52.10 0.00 9.85 2424.5 Vx Vn
9 24 70.50 52.50 0.00 11.50 2436.0 Vx Vn
9 25 82.60 50.10 0.00 16.35 2452.4 Vx Vn
9 26 83.00 50.30 0.00 16.65 2469.0 Vx Vn
9 27 84.00 59.40 0.00 21.70 2490.7 Vx Vn
9 28 76.70 50.50 0.00 13.60 2504.3 Vx Vn
9 29 79.10 50.50 0.00 14.80 2519.1 Vx Vn
9 30 74.20 54.60 0.00 14.40 2533.5 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF25976 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
peach twig borer model - 2007 USU Ext.Location: 2016 MF25976 Davis Nash Gala Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-30-16 | 63 | OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying |
| 6-6-16 | 222 | 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight |
| 6-13-16 | 350 | 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight |
| 6-24-16 | 503 | 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight |
| 7-2-16 | 705 | 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation |
| 7-21-16 | 1097 | 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight |
| 7-28-16 | 1285 | 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight |
| 8-6-16 | 1512 | 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight |
| 8-17-16 | 1782 | 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight |
| 9-9-16 | 2245 | 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight |
![degree-day graph of peach twig borer [stone fruits] 2007 USU Ext.](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2833763)
