
|
Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: peach twig borer [stone fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: 2007 USU Ext.
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: 1st consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
(ca. 405 DD after Mar 1 or Jan 1 in warm climates)
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 15
Ending date: 9 30
Model validation status: requires local validation
Region of known use: used in NW USA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 55 DDs after biofix: OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
2. 220 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
3. 350 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
4. 500 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
5. 684 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
6. 1080 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7. 1280 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
8. 1500 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
9. 1760 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
10. 2240 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
11. 2580 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 73% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 96% male flight
12. 2820 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 3rd gen. 4% male flight
13. 3180 DDs after biofix: 4th gen. ca. 13% egg hatch (warmer climates only)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF24644 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown Fuji OR Lat45.9431 Long:-118.4389 Elev:941
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 26 72.20 53.30 0.00 12.75 12.8 * START *
5 27 69.10 50.10 0.00 9.60 22.3
5 28 78.40 49.20 0.00 13.86 36.2
5 29 78.70 56.00 0.00 17.35 53.6
5 30 78.50 51.20 0.00 14.85 68.4 OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
5 31 86.60 50.80 0.00 18.70 87.1
6 1 89.00 57.80 0.00 23.32 110.4
6 2 78.80 64.50 0.00 21.65 132.1
6 3 91.50 59.10 0.00 24.81 156.9
6 4 98.50 57.90 0.00 25.87 182.8
6 5 99.70 64.20 0.00 28.99 211.7
6 6 99.00 69.00 0.00 31.05 242.8 Vx 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
6 7 97.10 70.80 0.00 31.59 274.4
6 8 88.80 75.60 0.00 32.12 306.5
6 9 78.60 59.40 0.00 19.00 325.5
6 10 71.80 52.80 0.04 12.30 337.8
6 11 75.70 50.30 0.00 13.00 350.8 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
6 12 78.70 49.20 0.00 14.01 364.8
6 13 76.00 58.30 0.00 17.15 382.0
6 14 71.50 50.30 0.00 10.90 392.9
6 15 68.90 46.10 0.00 8.20 401.1
6 16 72.00 49.20 0.01 10.66 411.7
6 17 79.10 49.80 0.00 14.46 426.2
6 18 69.10 54.60 0.09 11.85 438.0
6 19 78.80 46.90 0.00 13.26 451.3
6 20 81.50 52.50 0.00 17.00 468.3 Vx
6 21 81.30 58.40 0.00 19.85 488.1
6 22 87.80 54.20 0.00 21.00 509.1 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
6 23 83.30 61.10 0.00 22.20 531.3
6 24 74.50 54.60 0.00 14.55 545.9
6 25 81.20 52.80 0.00 17.00 562.9
6 26 91.60 54.90 0.00 22.77 585.7
6 27 92.80 60.40 0.00 25.80 611.5 Vx Vn
6 28 93.50 68.70 0.00 29.97 641.4
6 29 94.00 67.90 0.00 29.70 671.1 Vx
6 30 90.00 65.00 0.00 27.26 698.4 Vx Vn 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
7 1 90.70 64.60 0.00 27.28 725.7
7 2 89.50 62.80 0.00 26.00 751.7 Vx Vn
7 3 85.30 68.30 0.00 26.80 778.5 Vx
7 4 83.10 58.10 0.00 20.60 799.1
7 5 81.50 57.20 0.00 19.35 818.4
7 6 80.10 59.70 0.00 19.90 838.3
7 7 81.40 62.20 0.00 21.80 860.1 Vx
7 8 77.50 59.90 0.13 18.70 878.8 Vx
7 9 77.50 57.30 0.07 17.40 896.2
7 10 69.20 57.90 0.00 13.55 909.8
7 11 81.50 58.90 0.00 20.20 930.0
7 12 78.00 57.70 0.02 17.85 947.8
7 13 83.30 57.70 0.00 20.50 968.3
7 14 89.50 57.20 0.00 23.21 991.5 Vx
7 15 81.00 60.20 0.00 20.60 1012.1 Vx
7 16 83.30 59.90 0.00 21.60 1033.7 Vx
7 17 87.40 60.50 0.00 23.95 1057.7 Vx
7 18 80.70 62.50 0.00 21.60 1079.3 Vx
7 19 79.40 61.70 0.00 20.55 1099.8 Vx 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7 20 87.10 64.30 0.00 25.70 1125.5 Vx
7 21 94.50 60.00 0.00 26.03 1151.6 Vx
7 22 82.30 65.10 0.00 23.70 1175.3 Vx
7 23 86.50 58.20 0.00 22.35 1197.6
7 24 89.80 59.70 0.00 24.56 1222.2 Vx
7 25 96.30 65.50 0.00 29.02 1251.2 Vx
7 26 95.20 73.80 0.00 32.66 1283.9 Vx 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
7 27 96.30 68.80 0.00 30.55 1314.4
7 28 100.60 71.70 0.00 32.44 1346.8
7 29 101.40 70.90 0.00 32.19 1379.0 Vx
7 30 95.10 72.50 0.00 32.05 1411.1
7 31 86.50 62.30 0.00 24.40 1435.5
8 1 90.00 56.20 0.00 22.89 1458.4 Vx Vn
8 2 78.10 61.50 0.00 19.80 1478.2 Vx Vn
8 3 83.40 57.20 0.00 20.30 1498.5 Vx
8 4 92.30 54.80 0.00 22.92 1521.4 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
8 5 93.90 63.60 0.00 27.62 1549.0 Vx
8 6 89.20 65.50 0.00 27.23 1576.3
8 7 82.70 63.50 0.00 23.10 1599.4 Vx
8 8 77.50 54.50 0.00 16.00 1615.4
8 9 74.00 57.50 0.00 15.75 1631.1
8 10 83.80 58.30 0.00 21.05 1652.2 Vx
8 11 89.80 60.00 0.00 24.71 1676.9 Vx
8 12 96.00 63.40 0.00 27.97 1704.8
8 13 98.00 65.80 0.00 29.45 1734.3
8 14 95.40 70.60 0.00 31.23 1765.5 Vx 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
8 15 95.40 62.60 0.00 27.47 1793.0 Vx Vn
8 16 96.80 67.80 0.00 30.17 1823.2
8 17 93.40 67.00 0.00 29.14 1852.3
8 18 97.30 69.00 0.00 30.80 1883.1
8 19 92.00 64.90 0.00 27.79 1910.9
8 20 95.70 65.30 0.00 28.81 1939.7
8 21 95.80 72.20 0.00 32.03 1971.7
8 22 83.50 58.10 0.00 20.80 1992.5
8 23 85.70 56.80 0.00 21.25 2013.8
8 24 86.30 61.90 0.00 24.10 2037.9 Vx
8 25 89.50 59.20 0.00 24.21 2062.1
8 26 94.50 61.00 0.00 26.51 2088.6
8 27 91.80 72.30 0.00 31.32 2119.9
8 28 88.80 66.90 0.00 27.78 2147.7 Vx
8 29 91.30 62.10 0.00 26.22 2173.9 Vx
8 30 81.70 67.20 0.00 24.45 2198.4
8 31 85.90 60.90 0.00 23.40 2221.8
9 1 79.70 58.90 0.00 19.30 2241.1 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
9 2 77.90 54.50 0.01 16.20 2257.3
9 3 73.80 57.50 0.00 15.65 2272.9
9 4 78.70 51.60 0.00 15.15 2288.1
9 5 74.30 54.20 0.00 14.25 2302.3 Vx
9 6 65.80 55.50 0.06 10.65 2313.0
9 7 79.10 60.30 0.00 19.70 2332.7
9 8 81.40 60.00 0.00 20.70 2353.4
9 9 79.60 52.40 0.00 16.00 2369.4
9 10 92.20 56.30 0.00 23.63 2393.0
9 11 77.20 59.50 0.00 18.35 2411.4
9 12 72.70 45.30 0.00 9.84 2421.2 Vx
9 13 75.80 45.70 0.00 11.45 2432.7
9 14 81.60 54.20 0.00 17.90 2450.6
9 15 85.00 57.70 0.00 21.35 2471.9
9 16 88.70 60.80 0.00 24.70 2496.6
9 17 72.40 65.60 0.00 19.00 2515.6
9 18 72.40 61.20 0.00 16.80 2532.4
9 19 67.70 59.00 0.00 13.35 2545.8 Vx
9 20 73.60 52.00 0.00 12.80 2558.6
9 21 68.20 48.30 0.00 8.46 2567.0
9 22 57.60 51.50 0.00 4.55 2571.6
9 23 67.20 53.50 0.00 10.35 2581.9 3rd gen. ca. 73% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 96% male flight
9 24 72.00 51.90 0.00 11.95 2593.9
9 25 87.10 56.60 0.00 21.85 2615.7
9 26 82.40 56.60 0.00 19.50 2635.2 Vx
9 27 86.40 66.90 0.00 26.65 2661.9
9 28 79.10 55.90 0.00 17.50 2679.4
9 29 83.00 56.30 0.00 19.65 2699.0
9 30 75.40 56.30 0.00 15.85 2714.9
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF24644 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
peach twig borer model - 2007 USU Ext.Location: 2016 MF24644 Brown Fuji OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-30-16 | 68 | OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying |
6-6-16 | 243 | 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight |
6-11-16 | 351 | 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight |
6-22-16 | 509 | 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight |
6-30-16 | 698 | 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation |
7-19-16 | 1100 | 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight |
7-26-16 | 1284 | 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight |
8-4-16 | 1521 | 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight |
8-14-16 | 1766 | 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight |
9-1-16 | 2241 | 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight |
9-23-16 | 2582 | 3rd gen. ca. 73% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 96% male flight |