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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: peach twig borer [stone fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: 2007 USU Ext.
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: 1st consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
(ca. 405 DD after Mar 1 or Jan 1 in warm climates)
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 15
Ending date: 9 30
Model validation status: requires local validation
Region of known use: used in NW USA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 55 DDs after biofix: OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
2. 220 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
3. 350 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
4. 500 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
5. 684 DDs after biofix: 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
6. 1080 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7. 1280 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
8. 1500 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
9. 1760 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
10. 2240 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
11. 2580 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 73% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 96% male flight
12. 2820 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 3rd gen. 4% male flight
13. 3180 DDs after biofix: 4th gen. ca. 13% egg hatch (warmer climates only)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF23241 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown McClellan OR Lat45.9528 Long:-118.4678 Elev:843
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 26 72.40 54.50 0.00 13.45 13.5 * START *
5 27 67.80 50.00 0.00 8.90 22.4
5 28 74.40 47.40 0.00 11.25 33.6
5 29 77.00 55.10 0.00 16.05 49.6
5 30 76.60 49.30 0.00 13.00 62.6 OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying
5 31 84.20 45.40 0.00 15.48 78.1
6 1 82.70 52.00 0.00 17.35 95.5
6 2 76.10 64.00 0.00 20.05 115.5
6 3 87.20 56.80 0.00 22.00 137.5
6 4 94.10 52.90 0.00 22.49 160.0
6 5 93.70 57.30 0.00 24.53 184.5
6 6 99.90 32.00 0.00 17.84 202.4 Vx
6 7 95.30 66.00 0.00 29.06 231.4 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight
6 8 83.60 65.80 0.00 24.70 256.1
6 9 77.50 58.90 0.00 18.20 274.3
6 10 67.00 53.20 0.00 10.10 284.4
6 11 71.60 21.20 0.00 6.30 290.7
6 12 77.50 47.50 0.00 12.81 303.6
6 13 72.50 53.70 0.00 13.10 316.7
6 14 68.70 50.90 0.00 9.80 326.5
6 15 65.70 46.60 0.00 6.77 333.2
6 16 69.00 47.60 0.00 8.64 341.9
6 17 77.90 32.00 0.00 9.95 351.8 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight
6 18 67.20 55.00 0.00 11.10 362.9
6 19 73.90 45.50 0.00 10.47 373.4
6 20 81.90 48.80 0.00 15.45 388.8 Vx
6 21 80.80 58.70 0.00 19.75 408.6
6 22 85.40 48.90 0.00 17.23 425.8 Vx Vn
6 23 81.70 62.40 0.00 22.05 447.9 Vx Vn
6 24 73.00 54.50 0.00 13.75 461.6 Vx Vn
6 25 81.60 52.20 0.00 16.90 478.5 Vx Vn
6 26 91.00 52.20 0.00 21.24 499.8 Vx Vn
6 27 93.20 61.00 0.00 26.20 526.0 Vx Vn 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight
6 28 94.90 67.70 0.00 29.78 555.7 Vx Vn
6 29 94.30 64.70 0.00 28.24 584.0 Vx Vn
6 30 90.50 65.60 0.00 27.71 611.7 Vx Vn
7 1 89.00 63.50 0.00 26.17 637.9 Vx Vn
7 2 89.80 62.60 0.00 26.00 663.9 Vx Vn
7 3 85.60 64.90 0.00 25.25 689.1 Vx Vn 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation
7 4 80.50 57.70 0.00 19.10 708.2 Vx Vn
7 5 78.50 55.80 0.00 17.15 725.4 Vx Vn
7 6 80.70 59.40 0.00 20.05 745.4 Vx Vn
7 7 81.70 60.70 0.00 21.20 766.6 Vx Vn
7 8 77.60 61.30 0.00 19.45 786.1 Vx Vn
7 9 77.90 58.70 0.00 18.30 804.4 Vx Vn
7 10 70.30 59.40 0.00 14.85 819.2 Vx Vn
7 11 81.00 59.30 0.00 20.15 839.4 Vx Vn
7 12 80.00 59.90 0.00 19.95 859.3 Vx Vn
7 13 83.30 56.20 0.00 19.75 879.1 Vx Vn
7 14 90.00 58.00 0.00 23.79 902.8 Vx Vn
7 15 81.50 57.40 0.00 19.45 922.3 Vx Vn
7 16 83.60 59.10 0.00 21.35 943.6 Vx Vn
7 17 88.70 56.60 0.00 22.61 966.3 Vx Vn
7 18 80.80 61.50 0.00 21.15 987.4 Vx Vn
7 19 79.60 60.00 0.00 19.80 1007.2 Vx Vn
7 20 87.70 60.20 0.00 23.95 1031.2 Vx Vn
7 21 95.00 55.70 0.00 24.07 1055.2 Vx Vn
7 22 82.70 64.20 0.00 23.45 1078.7 Vx Vn
7 23 84.40 59.40 0.00 21.90 1100.6 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight
7 24 90.00 53.40 0.00 21.50 1122.1 Vx Vn
7 25 96.40 58.60 0.00 25.78 1147.9 Vx Vn
7 26 96.10 72.30 0.00 32.12 1180.0 Vx Vn
7 27 95.50 69.60 0.00 30.78 1210.8 Vx Vn
7 28 99.30 69.20 0.00 31.19 1241.9 Vx Vn
7 29 101.90 70.70 0.00 32.15 1274.1 Vx Vn
7 30 94.70 72.40 0.00 31.94 1306.0 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight
7 31 87.10 62.60 0.00 24.85 1330.9 Vx Vn
8 1 90.50 55.20 0.00 22.57 1353.5 Vx Vn
8 2 78.20 60.60 0.00 19.40 1372.9 Vx Vn
8 3 84.00 54.80 0.00 19.40 1392.3 Vx Vn
8 4 92.70 53.90 0.00 22.60 1414.8 Vx Vn
8 5 94.40 63.40 0.00 27.64 1442.5 Vx Vn
8 6 89.00 60.70 0.00 24.77 1467.3 Vx Vn
8 7 83.00 62.10 0.00 22.55 1489.8 Vx Vn
8 8 76.90 54.20 0.00 15.55 1505.4 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight
8 9 74.80 57.00 0.00 15.90 1521.3 Vx Vn
8 10 84.00 56.90 0.00 20.45 1541.7 Vx Vn
8 11 90.40 57.60 0.00 23.72 1565.4 Vx Vn
8 12 95.80 61.20 0.00 26.89 1592.3 Vx Vn
8 13 98.00 65.50 0.00 29.32 1621.6 Vx Vn
8 14 95.80 70.60 0.00 31.29 1652.9 Vx Vn
8 15 96.00 61.50 0.00 27.07 1680.0 Vx Vn
8 16 95.90 65.10 0.00 28.75 1708.8 Vx Vn
8 17 94.70 63.90 0.00 27.94 1736.7 Vx Vn
8 18 96.80 65.80 0.00 29.25 1765.9 Vx Vn 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight
8 19 89.30 64.50 0.00 26.77 1792.7 Vx Vn
8 20 94.60 55.10 0.00 23.68 1816.4 Vx Vn
8 21 95.40 65.00 0.00 28.61 1845.0 Vx Vn
8 22 80.40 56.00 0.00 18.20 1863.2 Vx Vn
8 23 83.10 54.50 0.00 18.80 1882.0 Vx Vn
8 24 86.90 51.70 0.00 19.30 1901.3 Vx Vn
8 25 89.70 51.50 0.00 20.45 1921.8 Vx Vn
8 26 91.50 57.50 0.00 24.02 1945.8 Vx Vn
8 27 91.10 68.90 0.00 29.50 1975.3 Vx Vn
8 28 89.50 62.00 0.00 25.60 2000.9 Vx Vn
8 29 92.00 56.60 0.00 23.72 2024.6 Vx Vn
8 30 82.40 61.70 0.00 22.05 2046.7 Vx Vn
8 31 83.30 59.60 0.00 21.45 2068.1 Vx Vn
9 1 79.10 59.40 0.00 19.25 2087.4 Vx Vn
9 2 74.40 55.30 0.00 14.85 2102.2 Vx Vn
9 3 73.20 51.20 0.00 12.20 2114.4 Vx Vn
9 4 74.50 47.30 0.00 11.26 2125.7 Vx Vn
9 5 74.70 52.10 0.00 13.40 2139.1 Vx Vn
9 6 65.80 55.00 0.00 10.40 2149.5 Vx Vn
9 7 77.40 58.20 0.00 17.80 2167.3 Vx Vn
9 8 79.30 56.70 0.00 18.00 2185.3 Vx Vn
9 9 78.90 46.20 0.00 13.11 2198.4 Vx Vn
9 10 89.20 52.00 0.00 20.51 2218.9 Vx Vn
9 11 75.70 51.20 0.00 13.45 2232.3 Vx Vn
9 12 73.10 43.90 0.00 9.71 2242.0 Vx Vn 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight
9 13 72.60 44.70 0.00 9.65 2251.7 Vx Vn
9 14 78.90 46.20 0.00 13.11 2264.8 Vx Vn
9 15 83.50 53.00 0.00 18.25 2283.0 Vx Vn
9 16 88.10 53.10 0.00 20.60 2303.6 Vx Vn
9 17 72.30 62.40 0.00 17.35 2321.0 Vx Vn
9 18 73.10 59.10 0.00 16.10 2337.1 Vx Vn
9 19 67.90 57.10 0.00 12.50 2349.6 Vx Vn
9 20 70.60 48.70 0.00 9.78 2359.4 Vx Vn
9 21 68.60 45.50 0.00 7.91 2367.3 Vx Vn
9 22 57.20 42.70 0.00 2.28 2369.6 Vx Vn
9 23 67.40 51.50 0.00 9.45 2379.0 Vx Vn
9 24 71.20 51.20 0.00 11.20 2390.2 Vx Vn
9 25 83.00 48.80 0.00 16.00 2406.2 Vx Vn
9 26 82.70 49.20 0.00 16.00 2422.2 Vx Vn
9 27 83.90 58.60 0.00 21.25 2443.5 Vx Vn
9 28 77.00 50.60 0.00 13.80 2457.3 Vx Vn
9 29 79.30 50.20 0.00 14.75 2472.0 Vx Vn
9 30 74.60 54.40 0.00 14.50 2486.5 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF23241 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
peach twig borer model - 2007 USU Ext.Location: 2016 MF23241 Brown McClellan OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-30-16 | 63 | OW gen. ca. 1st egg laying |
| 6-7-16 | 231 | 1st gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, OW 49% male flight |
| 6-17-16 | 352 | 1st gen. ca. 14% egg hatch (time to sample young larvae), OW 87% male flight |
| 6-27-16 | 526 | 1st gen. ca. 63% egg hatch, OW 98% male flight |
| 7-3-16 | 689 | 1st gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, earliest pupation |
| 7-23-16 | 1101 | 2nd gen. ca. 1st egg hatch, 1st gen. 19% male flight |
| 7-30-16 | 1306 | 2nd gen. ca. 13% egg hatch, 1st gen. 66% male flight |
| 8-8-16 | 1505 | 2nd gen. ca. 61% egg hatch, 1st gen. 96% male flight |
| 8-18-16 | 1766 | 2nd gen. ca. 96% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 1st male flight |
| 9-12-16 | 2242 | 3rd gen. ca. 14% egg hatch, 2nd gen. 56% male flight |
![degree-day graph of peach twig borer [stone fruits] 2007 USU Ext.](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3735083)
