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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner 1991
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 1
Ending date: 7 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 930 DD after biofix First moth catch
2. 1160 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence
3. 1280 DD after biofix First egg hatch
4. 1345 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch
5. 1430 DD after biofix 95% moth emergence
6. 2250 DD after biofix First moth catch (2nd flight)
7. 2750 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
8. 2870 DD after biofix First egg hatch (2nd gen)
9. 3025 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
10. 3300 DD after biofix 95% emergence (2nd flight)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF25442 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Burkes Klepper OR Lat45.9600 Long:-118.4106 Elev:908
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
3 1 63.80 42.00 0.03 11.90 11.9 * START *
3 2 61.00 42.90 0.00 10.95 22.9
3 3 63.60 45.60 0.03 13.60 36.5
3 4 64.00 34.70 0.00 9.62 46.1
3 5 66.50 49.70 0.01 17.10 63.2
3 6 66.60 48.10 0.03 16.35 79.5
3 7 58.00 42.50 0.00 9.25 88.8
3 8 53.40 37.40 0.00 5.14 93.9
3 9 58.70 43.80 0.01 10.25 104.2
3 10 64.30 49.50 0.03 15.90 120.1
3 11 48.30 35.60 0.04 2.52 122.6
3 12 53.40 40.40 0.02 5.95 128.5
3 13 60.10 40.90 0.02 9.50 138.0
3 14 53.50 40.80 0.00 6.16 144.2
3 15 52.30 41.40 0.00 5.85 150.0
3 16 55.40 39.70 0.00 6.71 156.8
3 17 53.30 34.90 0.00 4.65 161.4
3 18 58.50 29.10 0.00 6.16 167.6
3 19 62.10 33.90 0.00 8.55 176.1
3 20 60.70 37.60 0.08 8.71 184.8
3 21 64.30 43.20 0.10 12.75 197.6
3 22 54.00 44.60 0.07 8.30 205.9
3 23 59.90 45.40 0.00 11.65 217.5
3 24 56.90 47.50 0.00 11.20 228.7
3 25 56.10 43.80 0.00 8.95 237.7
3 26 62.50 41.50 0.00 11.00 248.7
3 27 57.70 45.90 0.01 10.80 259.5
3 28 51.00 39.40 0.00 4.46 263.9 Vx
3 29 63.60 36.90 0.00 9.94 273.9
3 30 64.50 35.40 0.00 10.01 283.9
3 31 71.70 48.70 0.00 19.20 303.1
4 1 76.30 46.60 0.00 20.45 323.5
4 2 76.70 57.10 0.00 25.90 349.4
4 3 75.30 47.50 0.00 20.40 369.8
4 4 60.40 48.20 0.06 13.30 383.1
4 5 63.20 43.40 0.00 12.30 395.4
4 6 73.50 39.90 0.00 15.78 411.2
4 7 73.50 37.90 0.00 15.09 426.3
4 8 78.40 45.50 0.00 20.95 447.3
4 9 80.40 55.10 0.00 26.75 474.0
4 10 73.50 51.60 0.00 21.55 495.6
4 11 76.00 47.20 0.00 20.60 516.2
4 12 66.60 52.00 0.03 18.30 534.5
4 13 64.40 49.00 0.01 15.70 550.2
4 14 63.60 45.80 0.02 13.70 563.9
4 15 65.00 46.20 0.00 14.60 578.5
4 16 70.30 41.40 0.00 14.85 593.3
4 17 76.20 38.80 0.00 16.73 610.0
4 18 79.10 40.00 0.00 18.62 628.7
4 19 82.20 48.60 0.00 24.40 653.1
4 20 85.50 44.40 0.00 23.93 677.0
4 21 79.40 55.00 0.00 26.20 703.2
4 22 76.60 55.30 0.00 24.95 728.1
4 23 70.60 53.50 0.00 21.05 749.2
4 24 66.50 51.70 0.00 18.10 767.3
4 25 64.80 43.40 0.00 13.10 780.4
4 26 64.10 43.90 0.00 13.00 793.4
4 27 60.70 49.00 0.01 13.85 807.2
4 28 69.50 51.10 0.00 19.30 826.5
4 29 58.10 52.00 0.00 14.05 840.6
4 30 67.70 48.90 0.01 17.30 857.9
5 1 76.80 40.90 0.00 17.85 875.7
5 2 85.30 44.80 0.00 24.04 899.8
5 3 90.90 69.00 0.00 37.61 937.4 First moth catch
5 4 79.80 58.70 0.01 28.25 965.6
5 5 69.10 46.30 0.00 16.70 982.3 Hx Hn
5 6 77.50 53.40 0.00 24.45 1006.8
5 7 82.60 53.10 0.00 26.85 1033.6
5 8 78.30 55.20 0.00 25.75 1059.4
5 9 66.40 48.20 0.00 16.30 1075.7
5 10 72.30 42.30 0.00 16.30 1092.0
5 11 81.50 46.40 0.00 22.95 1114.9 Vx Vn
5 12 84.40 63.40 0.00 32.90 1147.8
5 13 82.50 47.50 0.00 24.00 1171.8 50% moth emergence
5 14 69.50 54.70 0.10 21.10 1192.9
5 15 59.40 53.90 0.04 15.65 1208.6
5 16 72.40 53.40 0.02 21.90 1230.5
5 17 78.60 50.40 0.00 23.50 1254.0
5 18 82.70 60.20 0.00 30.45 1284.4 First egg hatch
5 19 66.50 50.00 0.00 17.25 1301.7
5 20 61.80 43.90 0.00 11.85 1313.5
5 21 65.10 46.20 0.03 14.65 1328.2
5 22 68.80 53.50 0.00 20.15 1348.3 50% egg hatch
5 23 70.20 52.20 0.00 20.20 1368.5 Vx
5 24 71.60 53.30 0.00 21.45 1390.0
5 25 77.30 51.80 0.00 23.55 1413.5
5 26 70.50 54.50 0.00 21.50 1435.0 95% moth emergence
5 27 67.30 51.30 0.00 18.30 1453.3
5 28 75.90 49.90 0.00 21.90 1475.2
5 29 78.90 55.70 0.00 26.30 1501.5
5 30 75.30 49.80 0.00 21.55 1523.1
5 31 84.00 48.00 0.00 25.00 1548.1
6 1 85.00 51.70 0.00 27.35 1575.4
6 2 76.80 64.60 0.00 29.70 1605.1
6 3 87.00 57.20 0.00 30.88 1636.0
6 4 94.90 52.70 0.00 30.71 1666.7
6 5 95.40 56.40 0.00 32.55 1699.3
6 6 99.10 69.80 0.00 39.06 1738.3 Vx
6 7 95.00 68.60 0.00 38.07 1776.4
6 8 87.40 68.90 0.00 36.78 1813.2
6 9 78.20 60.30 0.00 28.25 1841.5
6 10 68.70 54.50 0.04 20.60 1862.1
6 11 70.90 50.60 0.00 19.75 1881.8
6 12 78.80 47.70 0.00 22.25 1904.1
6 13 74.10 57.00 0.00 24.55 1928.6
6 14 69.30 51.80 0.00 19.55 1948.2
6 15 67.10 48.30 0.00 16.70 1964.9
6 16 68.90 47.80 0.02 17.35 1982.2
6 17 77.60 47.20 0.02 21.40 2003.6
6 18 67.70 55.80 0.09 20.75 2024.4
6 19 77.60 46.60 0.00 21.10 2045.5
6 20 81.30 48.10 0.00 23.70 2069.2 Vx
6 21 80.40 58.50 0.00 28.45 2097.6
6 22 87.70 49.40 0.00 27.24 2124.8
6 23 80.20 63.10 0.00 30.65 2155.5
6 24 74.50 55.70 0.00 24.10 2179.6
6 25 80.70 51.20 0.00 24.95 2204.5
6 26 90.50 50.30 0.00 28.52 2233.1
6 27 93.40 56.20 0.00 32.06 2265.1 Vx First moth catch (2nd flight)
6 28 94.50 67.30 0.00 37.42 2302.6
6 29 94.30 64.50 0.00 36.12 2338.7 Vx
6 30 90.30 65.70 0.00 35.93 2374.6 Vx Vn
7 1 92.90 60.90 0.00 34.19 2408.8
7 2 89.80 64.00 0.00 35.00 2443.8 Vx
7 3 85.50 69.20 0.00 36.31 2480.1 Vx
7 4 82.30 54.90 0.00 27.60 2507.7
7 5 81.00 57.30 0.00 28.15 2535.9
7 6 78.50 61.50 0.00 29.00 2564.9
7 7 81.50 61.00 0.00 30.25 2595.1 Vx
7 8 77.70 61.50 0.11 28.60 2623.7 Vx
7 9 78.20 59.10 0.06 27.65 2651.4
7 10 69.80 59.40 0.00 23.60 2675.0
7 11 77.30 59.80 0.00 27.55 2702.5
7 12 79.00 59.00 0.02 28.00 2730.5
7 13 83.30 59.40 0.00 30.35 2760.9 Vx 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
7 14 89.70 53.80 0.00 30.02 2790.9 Vx
7 15 81.30 60.10 0.00 29.70 2820.6 Vx
7 16 83.50 60.60 0.00 31.05 2851.6 Vx
7 17 87.90 56.30 0.00 30.72 2882.4 Vx First egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 18 81.60 61.70 0.00 30.65 2913.0
7 19 80.30 60.20 0.00 29.25 2942.3
7 20 87.30 62.10 0.00 33.40 2975.7 Vx
7 21 94.80 55.80 0.00 32.16 3007.8 Vx
7 22 82.90 65.90 0.00 33.40 3041.2 Vx 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 23 84.30 56.80 0.00 29.55 3070.8
7 24 90.10 55.50 0.00 30.96 3101.7 Vx
7 25 96.60 60.20 0.00 34.52 3136.2 Vx
7 26 95.30 71.40 0.00 39.33 3175.6 Vx
7 27 92.20 68.00 0.05 37.38 3213.0
7 28 95.00 67.30 0.04 37.50 3250.5
7 29 101.60 69.50 0.00 39.16 3289.6 Vx
7 30 94.60 71.60 0.00 39.34 3329.0 Vx 95% emergence (2nd flight)
7 31 84.80 59.90 0.00 31.35 3360.3
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF25442 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
Pandemis leafroller model - Brunner 1991Location: 2016 MF25442 Burkes Klepper OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-3-16 | 937 | First moth catch |
| 5-13-16 | 1172 | 50% moth emergence |
| 5-18-16 | 1284 | First egg hatch |
| 5-22-16 | 1348 | 50% egg hatch |
| 5-26-16 | 1435 | 95% moth emergence |
| 6-27-16 | 2265 | First moth catch (2nd flight) |
| 7-13-16 | 2761 | 50% moth emergence (2nd flight) |
| 7-17-16 | 2882 | First egg hatch (2nd gen) |
| 7-22-16 | 3041 | 50% egg hatch (2nd gen) |
| 7-30-16 | 3329 | 95% emergence (2nd flight) |
![degree-day graph of Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner 1991](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?45583)
