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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner 1991
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 1
Ending date: 7 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 930 DD after biofix First moth catch
2. 1160 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence
3. 1280 DD after biofix First egg hatch
4. 1345 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch
5. 1430 DD after biofix 95% moth emergence
6. 2250 DD after biofix First moth catch (2nd flight)
7. 2750 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
8. 2870 DD after biofix First egg hatch (2nd gen)
9. 3025 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
10. 3300 DD after biofix 95% emergence (2nd flight)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF24644 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown Fuji OR Lat45.9431 Long:-118.4389 Elev:941
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
3 1 62.70 45.00 0.04 12.85 12.9 * START *
3 2 60.40 44.40 0.00 11.40 24.2
3 3 63.50 44.30 0.02 12.90 37.1
3 4 63.10 36.40 0.00 9.57 46.7
3 5 63.70 48.40 0.00 15.05 61.8
3 6 65.40 47.60 0.04 15.50 77.3
3 7 56.50 43.00 0.00 8.75 86.0
3 8 53.00 37.20 0.00 4.91 90.9
3 9 57.30 41.50 0.01 8.40 99.3
3 10 62.90 48.30 0.00 14.60 113.9
3 11 47.20 37.00 0.04 2.21 116.1
3 12 52.00 40.90 0.02 5.45 121.6
3 13 60.50 41.00 0.01 9.75 131.4
3 14 52.30 40.10 0.00 5.30 136.7
3 15 49.90 40.00 0.00 4.09 140.7
3 16 53.70 40.30 0.00 6.07 146.8
3 17 52.90 33.90 0.00 4.32 151.1
3 18 56.30 31.80 0.00 5.55 156.7
3 19 60.60 36.00 0.00 8.28 165.0
3 20 58.50 42.00 0.12 9.25 174.2
3 21 64.70 45.50 0.05 14.10 188.3
3 22 52.10 42.70 0.09 6.40 194.7
3 23 58.80 44.80 0.00 10.80 205.5
3 24 55.00 45.80 0.00 9.40 214.9
3 25 55.30 42.60 0.01 7.95 222.9
3 26 61.50 39.20 0.00 9.57 232.4
3 27 56.00 44.40 0.01 9.20 241.6
3 28 50.90 37.80 0.00 4.04 245.7 Vx
3 29 61.20 35.80 0.00 8.52 254.2
3 30 63.40 40.20 0.00 10.86 265.0
3 31 70.00 49.60 0.00 18.80 283.8
4 1 74.90 51.30 0.00 22.10 305.9
4 2 75.10 56.70 0.00 24.90 330.8
4 3 74.10 51.80 0.00 21.95 352.8
4 4 60.90 46.30 0.04 12.60 365.4
4 5 63.20 43.00 0.00 12.10 377.5
4 6 71.70 44.80 0.00 17.25 394.7
4 7 72.70 44.70 0.00 17.70 412.4
4 8 76.80 53.60 0.00 24.20 436.6
4 9 79.20 58.70 0.00 27.95 464.6
4 10 72.90 50.40 0.00 20.65 485.2
4 11 75.00 49.20 0.00 21.10 506.3
4 12 66.00 51.40 0.00 17.70 524.0
4 13 63.40 47.20 0.02 14.30 538.3
4 14 61.90 44.30 0.02 12.10 550.4
4 15 64.30 44.80 0.01 13.55 564.0
4 16 69.50 45.30 0.00 16.40 580.4
4 17 74.90 46.30 0.00 19.60 600.0
4 18 79.00 49.80 0.00 23.40 623.4
4 19 81.40 52.70 0.00 26.05 649.4
4 20 84.90 53.30 0.00 28.10 677.5
4 21 79.30 58.60 0.00 27.95 705.5
4 22 76.80 55.00 0.00 24.90 730.4
4 23 69.60 52.30 0.00 19.95 750.3
4 24 65.00 51.20 0.00 17.10 767.4
4 25 64.90 42.20 0.00 12.55 780.0
4 26 68.70 44.70 0.00 15.70 795.7
4 27 64.10 49.70 0.00 15.90 811.6
4 28 73.00 50.60 0.00 20.80 832.4
4 29 58.40 51.40 0.00 13.90 846.3
4 30 71.70 47.10 0.00 18.40 864.7
5 1 79.80 47.00 0.00 22.40 887.1
5 2 87.60 53.20 0.00 29.09 916.2
5 3 91.90 65.60 0.00 36.21 952.4 First moth catch
5 4 80.00 60.50 0.09 29.25 981.6
5 5 68.70 45.80 0.00 16.25 997.9 Hx Hn
5 6 80.00 54.20 0.00 26.10 1024.0
5 7 86.20 55.70 0.00 29.85 1053.8
5 8 77.20 53.90 0.00 24.55 1078.4
5 9 66.10 46.90 0.00 15.50 1093.9
5 10 73.30 43.00 0.00 17.15 1111.0
5 11 80.80 46.50 0.00 22.65 1133.7 Vx Vn
5 12 88.40 63.20 0.00 34.26 1168.0 50% moth emergence
5 13 82.90 47.90 0.00 24.40 1192.4
5 14 68.60 53.90 0.12 20.25 1212.6
5 15 59.00 52.10 0.03 14.55 1227.2
5 16 75.30 51.90 0.02 22.60 1249.8
5 17 82.70 52.00 0.00 26.35 1276.1
5 18 82.90 60.00 0.00 30.45 1306.6 First egg hatch
5 19 66.60 48.10 0.00 16.35 1322.9
5 20 63.10 44.20 0.00 12.65 1335.6
5 21 65.90 48.70 0.05 16.30 1351.9 50% egg hatch
5 22 68.80 52.70 0.00 19.75 1371.6
5 23 69.90 50.30 0.00 19.10 1390.7 Vx
5 24 74.40 53.30 0.00 22.85 1413.6
5 25 80.10 54.40 0.00 26.25 1439.8 95% moth emergence
5 26 72.20 53.30 0.00 21.75 1461.6
5 27 69.10 50.10 0.00 18.60 1480.2
5 28 78.40 49.20 0.00 22.80 1503.0
5 29 78.70 56.00 0.00 26.35 1529.3
5 30 78.50 51.20 0.00 23.85 1553.2
5 31 86.60 50.80 0.00 27.56 1580.7
6 1 89.00 57.80 0.00 31.78 1612.5
6 2 78.80 64.50 0.00 30.65 1643.1
6 3 91.50 59.10 0.00 33.04 1676.2
6 4 98.50 57.90 0.00 33.77 1710.0
6 5 99.70 64.20 0.00 36.74 1746.7
6 6 99.00 69.00 0.00 38.71 1785.4 Vx
6 7 97.10 70.80 0.00 39.28 1824.7
6 8 88.80 75.60 0.00 40.31 1865.0
6 9 78.60 59.40 0.00 28.00 1893.0
6 10 71.80 52.80 0.04 21.30 1914.3
6 11 75.70 50.30 0.00 22.00 1936.3
6 12 78.70 49.20 0.00 22.95 1959.2
6 13 76.00 58.30 0.00 26.15 1985.4
6 14 71.50 50.30 0.00 19.90 2005.3
6 15 68.90 46.10 0.00 16.50 2021.8
6 16 72.00 49.20 0.01 19.60 2041.4
6 17 79.10 49.80 0.00 23.45 2064.8
6 18 69.10 54.60 0.09 20.85 2085.7
6 19 78.80 46.90 0.00 21.85 2107.5
6 20 81.50 52.50 0.00 26.00 2133.5 Vx
6 21 81.30 58.40 0.00 28.85 2162.4
6 22 87.80 54.20 0.00 29.65 2192.1
6 23 83.30 61.10 0.00 31.20 2223.3
6 24 74.50 54.60 0.00 23.55 2246.8
6 25 81.20 52.80 0.00 26.00 2272.8 First moth catch (2nd flight)
6 26 91.60 54.90 0.00 31.04 2303.8
6 27 92.80 60.40 0.00 33.93 2337.8 Vx Vn
6 28 93.50 68.70 0.00 37.91 2375.7
6 29 94.00 67.90 0.00 37.62 2413.3 Vx
6 30 90.00 65.00 0.00 35.53 2448.8 Vx Vn
7 1 90.70 64.60 0.00 35.49 2484.3
7 2 89.50 62.80 0.00 34.35 2518.7 Vx Vn
7 3 85.30 68.30 0.00 35.78 2554.5 Vx
7 4 83.10 58.10 0.00 29.60 2584.1
7 5 81.50 57.20 0.00 28.35 2612.4
7 6 80.10 59.70 0.00 28.90 2641.3
7 7 81.40 62.20 0.00 30.80 2672.1 Vx
7 8 77.50 59.90 0.13 27.70 2699.8 Vx
7 9 77.50 57.30 0.07 26.40 2726.2
7 10 69.20 57.90 0.00 22.55 2748.8
7 11 81.50 58.90 0.00 29.20 2778.0 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
7 12 78.00 57.70 0.02 26.85 2804.8
7 13 83.30 57.70 0.00 29.50 2834.3
7 14 89.50 57.20 0.00 31.63 2865.9 Vx
7 15 81.00 60.20 0.00 29.60 2895.5 Vx First egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 16 83.30 59.90 0.00 30.60 2926.1 Vx
7 17 87.40 60.50 0.00 32.64 2958.8 Vx
7 18 80.70 62.50 0.00 30.60 2989.4 Vx
7 19 79.40 61.70 0.00 29.55 3018.9 Vx
7 20 87.10 64.30 0.00 34.43 3053.4 Vx 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 21 94.50 60.00 0.00 34.07 3087.4 Vx
7 22 82.30 65.10 0.00 32.70 3120.1 Vx
7 23 86.50 58.20 0.00 31.20 3151.3
7 24 89.80 59.70 0.00 32.92 3184.2 Vx
7 25 96.30 65.50 0.00 36.87 3221.1 Vx
7 26 95.20 73.80 0.00 40.34 3261.5 Vx
7 27 96.30 68.80 0.00 38.33 3299.8
7 28 100.60 71.70 0.00 39.96 3339.8 95% emergence (2nd flight)
7 29 101.40 70.90 0.00 39.71 3379.5 Vx
7 30 95.10 72.50 0.00 39.78 3419.2
7 31 86.50 62.30 0.00 33.24 3452.5
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF24644 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
Pandemis leafroller model - Brunner 1991Location: 2016 MF24644 Brown Fuji OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-3-16 | 952 | First moth catch |
| 5-12-16 | 1168 | 50% moth emergence |
| 5-18-16 | 1307 | First egg hatch |
| 5-21-16 | 1352 | 50% egg hatch |
| 5-25-16 | 1440 | 95% moth emergence |
| 6-25-16 | 2273 | First moth catch (2nd flight) |
| 7-11-16 | 2778 | 50% moth emergence (2nd flight) |
| 7-15-16 | 2896 | First egg hatch (2nd gen) |
| 7-20-16 | 3053 | 50% egg hatch (2nd gen) |
| 7-28-16 | 3340 | 95% emergence (2nd flight) |
![degree-day graph of Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner 1991](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?41028)
