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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner 1991
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 1
Ending date: 7 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 930 DD after biofix First moth catch
2. 1160 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence
3. 1280 DD after biofix First egg hatch
4. 1345 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch
5. 1430 DD after biofix 95% moth emergence
6. 2250 DD after biofix First moth catch (2nd flight)
7. 2750 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
8. 2870 DD after biofix First egg hatch (2nd gen)
9. 3025 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
10. 3300 DD after biofix 95% emergence (2nd flight)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF24585 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Oliver Cherries OR Lat45.9717 Long:-118.3739 Elev:882
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
3 1 63.30 38.10 0.03 10.12 10.1 * START *
3 2 60.40 40.90 0.00 9.65 19.8
3 3 64.60 44.60 0.02 13.60 33.4
3 4 59.80 32.20 0.00 7.18 40.6
3 5 64.50 49.50 0.01 16.00 56.6
3 6 66.20 48.30 0.03 16.25 72.8
3 7 56.00 39.30 0.00 6.88 79.7
3 8 53.40 32.40 0.00 4.35 84.0
3 9 57.80 42.20 0.00 9.00 93.0
3 10 62.20 42.20 0.01 11.20 104.2
3 11 48.00 33.80 0.02 2.21 106.4
3 12 53.70 39.30 0.01 5.75 112.2
3 13 58.10 37.10 0.01 7.33 119.5
3 14 51.20 37.50 0.00 4.12 123.6
3 15 52.20 39.60 0.00 5.10 128.7
3 16 55.00 36.90 0.00 5.80 134.5
3 17 53.60 32.40 0.00 4.43 139.0
3 18 57.70 26.30 0.00 5.51 144.5
3 19 62.20 32.90 0.00 8.41 152.9
3 20 61.40 34.40 0.05 8.32 161.2
3 21 64.10 38.50 0.00 10.63 171.9
3 22 52.20 43.90 0.05 7.05 178.9
3 23 60.00 44.60 0.00 11.30 190.2
3 24 57.10 46.80 0.00 10.95 201.2
3 25 55.10 42.30 0.00 7.70 208.9
3 26 63.50 36.30 0.00 9.74 218.6
3 27 57.60 48.10 0.00 11.85 230.5
3 28 51.90 37.00 0.00 4.36 234.8
3 29 63.30 35.40 0.00 9.44 244.2
3 30 64.50 32.30 0.00 9.38 253.6
3 31 71.80 42.50 0.00 16.15 269.8
4 1 76.70 39.50 0.00 17.23 287.0
4 2 77.40 44.90 0.00 20.15 307.1
4 3 75.30 41.20 0.00 17.25 324.4
4 4 62.00 45.40 0.12 12.70 337.1 Hx
4 5 63.60 39.80 0.00 10.81 347.9
4 6 62.30 36.70 0.00 9.26 357.2 Hx
4 7 73.00 35.60 0.00 14.18 371.4
4 8 76.80 42.20 0.00 18.50 389.9
4 9 79.20 49.70 0.00 23.45 413.3
4 10 72.80 47.40 0.00 19.10 432.4
4 11 76.00 47.20 0.00 20.60 453.0
4 12 67.50 50.70 0.02 18.10 471.1
4 13 63.60 48.20 0.00 14.90 486.0
4 14 63.20 42.30 0.00 11.75 497.8
4 15 64.80 43.60 0.00 13.20 511.0
4 16 69.50 35.50 0.00 12.45 523.4
4 17 73.60 37.50 0.00 15.02 538.4
4 18 80.00 39.50 0.00 18.87 557.3 Vx
4 19 79.90 43.30 0.00 20.60 577.9
4 20 82.20 43.20 0.00 21.70 599.6
4 21 76.80 50.90 0.00 22.85 622.4
4 22 75.60 52.10 0.00 22.85 645.3
4 23 69.60 52.40 0.00 20.00 665.3
4 24 65.70 49.40 0.00 16.55 681.8
4 25 65.50 39.60 0.00 11.69 693.5 Vx
4 26 63.80 41.50 0.00 11.65 705.2
4 27 60.00 47.20 0.03 12.60 717.8
4 28 68.00 48.50 0.00 17.25 735.0
4 29 57.40 48.90 0.03 12.15 747.2
4 30 66.20 47.50 0.02 15.85 763.0
5 1 74.60 40.20 0.00 16.45 779.5
5 2 85.00 42.80 0.00 22.90 802.4 Vx
5 3 86.10 62.60 0.00 33.25 835.6
5 4 77.70 57.20 0.00 26.45 862.1
5 5 69.30 45.60 0.00 16.45 878.5 Hx Hn
5 6 75.00 51.20 0.00 22.10 900.6
5 7 79.60 52.10 0.00 24.85 925.5
5 8 77.00 57.80 0.00 26.40 951.9 First moth catch
5 9 65.50 47.70 0.00 15.60 967.5 Vx
5 10 71.10 37.90 0.00 13.91 981.4
5 11 82.00 46.10 0.00 23.05 1004.4 Vx Vn
5 12 83.40 57.40 0.00 29.40 1033.8
5 13 80.70 45.70 0.00 22.20 1056.0
5 14 67.50 51.80 0.07 18.65 1074.7
5 15 58.80 51.70 0.11 14.25 1088.9
5 16 72.00 52.00 0.01 21.00 1109.9 Vx
5 17 75.70 49.80 0.00 21.75 1131.7
5 18 82.20 53.80 0.00 27.00 1158.7
5 19 67.80 49.30 0.00 17.55 1176.2 50% moth emergence
5 20 61.40 40.90 0.00 10.15 1186.4
5 21 63.60 44.40 0.01 13.00 1199.4
5 22 68.50 50.30 0.00 18.40 1217.8
5 23 70.80 50.70 0.00 19.75 1237.5
5 24 74.00 49.50 0.00 20.75 1258.3
5 25 76.90 47.60 0.00 21.25 1279.5
5 26 70.80 50.80 0.00 19.80 1299.3 First egg hatch
5 27 69.80 50.90 0.00 19.35 1318.7
5 28 76.10 48.20 0.00 21.15 1339.8
5 29 79.60 52.60 0.00 25.10 1364.9 50% egg hatch
5 30 76.30 48.20 0.00 21.25 1386.2 Vx
5 31 84.80 40.80 0.00 21.81 1408.0 Vx
6 1 85.20 49.50 0.00 26.34 1434.3 95% moth emergence
6 2 78.10 60.80 0.00 28.45 1462.8
6 3 86.40 57.20 0.00 30.67 1493.5
6 4 89.00 50.30 0.00 28.10 1521.6
6 5 91.20 54.30 0.00 30.65 1552.2
6 6 99.20 58.30 0.00 34.06 1586.3 Vx
6 7 94.00 64.20 0.00 35.93 1622.2
6 8 87.70 66.90 0.00 35.88 1658.1
6 9 77.20 56.40 0.00 25.80 1683.9
6 10 67.70 53.30 0.01 19.50 1703.4
6 11 72.00 46.10 0.00 18.05 1721.4
6 12 77.30 44.50 0.00 19.90 1741.3
6 13 74.90 53.00 0.00 22.95 1764.3 Vx
6 14 69.30 50.10 0.00 18.70 1783.0
6 15 69.30 46.50 0.00 16.90 1799.9
6 16 69.60 45.30 0.01 16.45 1816.3
6 17 79.10 42.50 0.00 19.80 1836.1
6 18 66.80 52.50 0.06 18.65 1854.8
6 19 76.30 42.50 0.00 18.40 1873.2
6 20 80.20 46.80 0.00 22.50 1895.7
6 21 80.50 58.70 0.00 28.60 1924.3
6 22 87.20 45.70 0.00 25.23 1949.5
6 23 81.30 59.80 0.00 29.55 1979.1
6 24 75.60 54.00 0.02 23.80 2002.9
6 25 81.50 48.10 0.00 23.80 2026.7
6 26 87.70 46.80 0.00 25.95 2052.6
6 27 93.50 60.50 0.00 34.12 2086.7 Vx Vn
6 28 91.20 59.30 0.00 33.07 2119.8
6 29 94.60 63.50 0.00 35.71 2155.5 Vx
6 30 92.00 66.20 0.00 36.51 2192.0 Vx Vn
7 1 89.00 63.10 0.00 34.37 2226.4 Vx Vn
7 2 90.00 63.10 0.00 34.62 2261.0 Vx Vn First moth catch (2nd flight)
7 3 85.60 64.80 0.00 34.16 2295.2 Vx Vn
7 4 80.50 57.60 0.00 28.05 2323.2 Vx Vn
7 5 78.70 52.30 0.00 24.50 2347.7
7 6 81.40 60.50 0.00 29.95 2377.7
7 7 81.50 60.50 0.00 30.00 2407.7 Vx Vn
7 8 77.80 60.30 0.05 28.05 2435.7 Vx
7 9 77.60 57.50 0.06 26.55 2462.3
7 10 69.90 57.20 0.00 22.55 2484.8
7 11 80.80 59.00 0.00 28.90 2513.7 Vx Vn
7 12 80.20 56.30 0.02 27.25 2541.0
7 13 84.30 55.40 0.00 28.85 2569.8
7 14 89.80 53.00 0.00 29.65 2599.5 Vx
7 15 81.40 57.00 0.00 28.20 2627.7 Vx
7 16 83.70 58.00 0.00 29.85 2657.5 Vx
7 17 88.10 55.40 0.00 30.34 2687.9 Vx
7 18 80.80 59.10 0.00 28.95 2716.8 Vx
7 19 82.90 56.80 0.00 28.85 2745.7
7 20 87.70 58.90 0.00 31.95 2777.6 Vx 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
7 21 95.20 52.10 0.00 30.49 2808.1 Vx
7 22 83.00 64.50 0.00 32.75 2840.8 Vx Vn
7 23 84.10 55.90 0.00 29.00 2869.8 Vx
7 24 90.20 51.90 0.00 29.23 2899.1 Vx First egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 25 96.80 58.40 0.00 33.73 2932.8 Vx
7 26 95.90 69.30 0.00 38.50 2971.3 Vx
7 27 95.20 69.40 0.00 38.45 3009.8 Vx Vn
7 28 99.40 63.40 0.00 36.36 3046.1 Vx 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 29 101.70 63.60 0.00 36.72 3082.8 Vx
7 30 94.70 71.80 0.00 39.44 3122.3 Vx Vn
7 31 86.90 62.40 0.00 33.42 3155.7 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF24585 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
Pandemis leafroller model - Brunner 1991Location: 2016 MF24585 Oliver Cherries OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-8-16 | 952 | First moth catch |
| 5-19-16 | 1176 | 50% moth emergence |
| 5-26-16 | 1299 | First egg hatch |
| 5-29-16 | 1365 | 50% egg hatch |
| 6-1-16 | 1434 | 95% moth emergence |
| 7-2-16 | 2261 | First moth catch (2nd flight) |
| 7-20-16 | 2778 | 50% moth emergence (2nd flight) |
| 7-24-16 | 2899 | First egg hatch (2nd gen) |
| 7-28-16 | 3046 | 50% egg hatch (2nd gen) |
![degree-day graph of Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner 1991](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1586136)
