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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner et al 1997
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20
Ending date: 8 31
Model validation status: not fully tested
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch
2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch
5. 900 DD after 1st catch: Mostly small larvae present
6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: Mostly large larvae present
7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation
8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 C1244 APRSWXNET Pendleton CW1244 OR Lat45.6733 Long:-118.8069 Elev:1145
mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 20 60.00 39.00 0.04 7.26 7.3 * START *
5 21 60.00 43.00 0.52 8.50 15.8
5 22 68.00 52.00 0.00 17.00 32.8
5 23 71.00 47.00 0.00 16.00 48.8
5 24 75.00 46.00 0.00 17.50 66.3
5 25 79.00 46.00 0.00 19.50 85.8
5 26 70.00 49.00 0.00 16.50 102.3
5 27 68.00 50.00 0.00 16.00 118.3
5 28 78.00 48.00 0.00 20.00 138.3
5 29 78.00 51.00 0.00 21.50 159.8 50% catch
5 30 79.00 50.00 0.00 21.50 181.3
5 31 85.00 43.00 0.00 21.00 202.3
6 1 89.00 50.00 0.01 25.95 228.2
6 2 80.00 62.00 0.01 28.00 256.2
6 3 90.00 56.00 0.00 29.17 285.4
6 4 95.00 52.00 0.00 28.40 313.8
6 5 99.00 58.00 0.00 31.89 345.7
6 6 104.00 60.00 0.00 33.43 379.1
6 7 103.00 61.00 0.00 33.75 412.9
6 8 83.00 63.00 0.10 30.00 442.9 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
6 9 83.00 56.00 0.25 26.50 469.4
6 10 73.00 53.00 0.25 20.00 489.4
6 11 75.00 47.00 0.00 18.00 507.4
6 12 84.00 43.00 0.00 20.50 527.9
6 13 73.00 51.00 0.00 19.00 546.9
6 14 70.00 50.00 0.00 17.00 563.9
6 15 67.00 43.00 0.01 12.00 575.9
6 16 72.00 48.00 0.01 17.00 592.9 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
6 17 76.00 46.00 0.58 18.00 610.9
6 18 68.00 51.00 0.01 16.50 627.4
6 19 75.00 43.00 0.00 16.00 643.4
6 20 85.00 48.00 0.00 23.50 666.9
6 21 85.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 694.9
6 22 90.00 48.00 0.00 25.26 720.1
6 23 83.00 59.00 0.01 28.00 748.1
6 24 73.00 55.00 0.01 21.00 769.1
6 25 86.00 47.00 0.00 23.43 792.5 95% egg hatch
6 26 91.00 50.00 0.00 26.51 819.1
6 27 98.00 55.00 0.00 30.36 849.4
6 28 99.00 59.00 0.00 32.35 881.8
6 29 98.00 59.00 0.00 32.19 914.0 Mostly small larvae present
6 30 94.00 59.00 0.00 31.51 945.5
7 1 88.80 54.00 0.00 27.86 973.3 Vx
7 2 90.50 58.30 0.00 30.42 1003.7 Vx Vn
7 3 84.40 65.80 0.00 32.10 1035.8 Vx Vn
7 4 81.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 1061.8 Vx Vn
7 5 78.30 52.60 0.00 22.45 1084.3 Vx Vn
7 6 85.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 1112.3
7 7 82.00 53.00 0.17 24.50 1136.8
7 8 80.00 60.00 0.88 27.00 1163.8
7 9 78.00 58.00 0.25 25.00 1188.8
7 10 74.00 58.00 0.00 23.00 1211.8 Mostly large larvae present
7 11 85.00 57.00 0.08 28.00 1239.8
7 12 82.00 54.00 0.08 25.00 1264.8
7 13 88.00 56.00 0.00 28.61 1293.4
7 14 94.00 53.00 0.00 28.67 1322.1
7 15 85.00 58.00 0.00 28.50 1350.6
7 16 87.00 54.00 0.00 27.29 1377.9
7 17 91.00 55.00 0.00 28.94 1406.8
7 18 84.00 62.00 0.00 30.00 1436.8
7 19 82.00 58.00 0.00 27.00 1463.8
7 20 92.00 60.00 0.00 31.58 1495.4 5% catch next generation
7 21 98.00 56.00 0.00 30.82 1526.2
7 22 85.00 65.00 0.00 32.00 1558.2
7 23 89.00 54.00 0.00 27.92 1586.1
7 24 96.00 52.00 0.00 28.60 1614.7
7 25 102.00 57.00 0.00 31.87 1646.6
7 26 98.00 61.00 0.00 33.10 1679.7
7 27 99.00 59.00 0.00 32.35 1712.0
7 28 102.00 61.00 0.00 33.63 1745.7
7 29 104.00 63.00 0.00 34.71 1780.4
7 30 96.00 68.00 0.00 35.94 1816.3
7 31 87.00 54.00 0.00 27.29 1843.6
8 1 92.00 51.00 0.00 27.25 1870.9
8 2 79.00 57.00 0.00 25.00 1895.9 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
8 3 87.00 53.00 0.00 26.79 1922.7
8 4 95.00 51.00 0.00 27.93 1950.6
8 5 96.00 55.00 0.00 30.01 1980.6
8 6 90.00 61.00 0.00 31.60 2012.2
8 7 83.00 54.00 0.00 25.50 2037.7
8 8 76.00 53.00 0.13 21.50 2059.2 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
8 9 78.00 56.00 0.04 24.00 2083.2
8 10 86.00 51.00 0.00 25.43 2108.6
8 11 93.00 52.00 0.00 27.97 2136.6
8 12 97.00 54.00 0.00 29.73 2166.3
8 13 99.00 57.00 0.00 31.44 2197.8 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
8 14 99.00 59.00 0.00 32.35 2230.1
8 15 99.00 56.00 0.00 30.99 2261.1
8 16 98.00 54.00 0.00 29.90 2291.0
8 17 99.00 56.00 0.00 30.99 2322.0
8 18 99.00 58.00 0.00 31.89 2353.9
8 19 93.00 55.00 0.00 29.41 2383.3
8 20 99.00 52.00 0.00 29.15 2412.4
8 21 95.00 56.00 0.00 30.29 2442.7
8 22 76.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 2465.2
8 23 86.00 45.00 0.00 22.43 2487.7
8 24 86.00 49.00 0.00 24.43 2512.1
8 25 90.00 50.00 0.00 26.24 2538.3 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
8 26 93.00 49.00 0.00 26.52 2564.9
8 27 91.00 57.00 0.00 29.91 2594.8
8 28 91.00 60.00 0.00 31.36 2626.1
8 29 94.00 55.00 0.00 29.62 2655.7
8 30 78.00 61.00 0.00 26.50 2682.2
8 31 86.00 48.00 0.00 23.93 2706.2
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 C1244 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner et al 1997Location: 2016 C1244 Pendleton CW1244 OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-29-16 | 160 | 50% catch |
6-8-16 | 443 | 95% catch, 1% egg hatch |
6-16-16 | 593 | 98% catch, 50% egg hatch |
6-25-16 | 793 | 95% egg hatch |
6-29-16 | 914 | Mostly small larvae present |
7-10-16 | 1212 | Mostly large larvae present |
7-20-16 | 1495 | 5% catch next generation |
8-2-16 | 1896 | 50% catch, 1% egg hatch |
8-8-16 | 2059 | 68% catch, 25% egg hatch |
8-13-16 | 2198 | 79% catch, 50% egg hatch |
8-25-16 | 2538 | 95% catch, 95% egg hatch |