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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner et al 1997
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20
Ending date: 8 31
Model validation status: not fully tested
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch
2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch
5. 900 DD after 1st catch: Mostly small larvae present
6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: Mostly large larvae present
7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation
8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF25394 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown Stephens Hill OR Lat:45.9892 Long:-118.4117 Elev:810
mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 20 63.80 43.40 0.00 10.60 10.6 * START *
5 21 64.70 46.40 0.00 12.55 23.1 Vx
5 22 68.30 51.70 0.00 17.00 40.1
5 23 70.90 51.40 0.00 18.15 58.3 Vx
5 24 73.30 52.20 0.00 19.75 78.0 Vx
5 25 77.60 49.60 0.00 20.60 98.6
5 26 70.90 55.00 0.00 19.95 118.6
5 27 67.70 50.70 0.00 16.20 134.8
5 28 74.70 48.50 0.00 18.60 153.4 50% catch
5 29 78.90 54.40 0.00 23.65 177.1
5 30 76.50 48.80 0.00 19.65 196.7
5 31 83.40 44.10 0.00 20.75 217.5
6 1 85.30 51.70 0.00 25.49 242.9
6 2 76.60 64.90 0.00 27.75 270.7
6 3 85.70 58.00 0.00 28.80 299.5
6 4 91.90 52.50 0.00 27.95 327.4
6 5 94.50 56.40 0.00 30.38 357.8
6 6 100.30 63.20 0.00 34.38 392.2 Vx
6 7 98.60 67.70 0.00 36.12 428.3 Vx
6 8 86.50 68.40 0.00 34.27 462.6 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
6 9 80.80 58.80 0.00 26.80 489.4
6 10 69.30 54.10 0.00 18.70 508.1
6 11 73.00 48.40 0.00 17.70 525.8
6 12 79.00 48.70 0.00 20.85 546.6 Vx
6 13 73.80 54.30 0.00 21.05 567.7
6 14 69.40 51.00 0.00 17.20 584.9
6 15 70.80 47.20 0.00 16.00 600.9 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
6 16 68.50 46.30 0.00 14.40 615.3
6 17 78.70 45.00 0.00 18.85 634.1
6 18 67.00 55.60 0.00 18.30 652.4
6 19 76.00 44.80 0.00 17.40 669.8
6 20 81.80 50.10 0.00 22.95 692.8 Vx
6 21 79.70 57.50 0.00 25.60 718.4
6 22 85.50 48.30 0.00 23.88 742.3
6 23 80.80 61.60 0.00 28.20 770.5
6 24 73.00 54.00 0.00 20.50 791.0 95% egg hatch
6 25 80.80 51.90 0.00 23.35 814.3
6 26 89.70 49.90 0.00 26.11 840.4
6 27 91.90 59.00 0.00 31.08 871.5
6 28 92.60 64.70 0.00 33.92 905.4 Mostly small larvae present
6 29 92.10 64.60 0.00 33.78 939.2
6 30 88.70 64.70 0.00 33.07 972.3
7 1 90.50 59.30 0.00 30.90 1003.2
7 2 90.50 64.20 0.00 33.26 1036.4
7 3 85.00 65.50 0.00 32.25 1068.7
7 4 81.90 56.10 0.00 26.00 1094.7
7 5 79.80 53.10 0.00 23.45 1118.1
7 6 81.10 60.00 0.00 27.55 1145.7
7 7 80.30 55.50 0.00 24.90 1170.6
7 8 75.10 60.60 0.00 24.85 1195.4
7 9 78.10 57.90 0.00 25.00 1220.4 Mostly large larvae present
7 10 67.90 58.70 0.00 20.30 1240.7
7 11 78.70 57.90 0.00 25.30 1266.0
7 12 80.30 58.30 0.00 26.30 1292.3
7 13 82.60 57.10 0.00 26.85 1319.2
7 14 88.20 53.50 0.00 27.43 1346.6
7 15 79.00 57.90 0.00 25.45 1372.1
7 16 81.80 56.40 0.00 26.10 1398.2
7 17 84.60 56.80 0.00 27.70 1425.9
7 18 81.00 61.60 0.00 28.30 1454.2
7 19 79.60 59.90 0.00 26.75 1480.9 5% catch next generation
7 20 86.50 61.10 0.00 30.64 1511.6
7 21 88.90 55.20 0.00 28.48 1540.0
7 22 82.20 62.70 0.00 29.45 1569.5
7 23 81.80 55.70 0.00 25.75 1595.2
7 24 87.70 53.00 0.00 27.03 1622.3
7 25 97.10 58.30 0.00 31.73 1654.0 Vx
7 26 89.30 68.90 0.00 35.24 1689.2
7 27 91.10 65.90 0.00 34.19 1723.4
7 28 94.00 67.20 0.00 35.30 1758.7
7 29 96.40 64.70 0.00 34.53 1793.3
7 30 88.90 68.80 0.00 35.11 1828.4
7 31 83.70 60.90 0.00 29.30 1857.7
8 1 91.20 59.60 0.00 31.21 1888.9 Vx
8 2 80.00 62.10 0.00 28.05 1916.9 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
8 3 80.00 53.60 0.00 23.80 1940.7
8 4 89.10 51.80 0.00 26.87 1967.6
8 5 90.30 55.80 0.00 29.15 1996.8
8 6 85.60 61.30 0.00 30.41 2027.2
8 7 79.30 60.80 0.00 27.05 2054.2 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
8 8 74.80 54.50 0.00 21.65 2075.9
8 9 73.80 55.80 0.00 21.80 2097.7
8 10 82.80 56.30 0.00 26.55 2124.2
8 11 88.50 53.30 0.00 27.43 2151.6
8 12 92.40 55.10 0.00 29.32 2181.0 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
8 13 91.20 58.50 0.00 30.68 2211.6
8 14 93.20 66.20 0.00 34.72 2246.4
8 15 96.30 66.20 0.00 35.19 2281.5 Vx
8 16 90.50 63.20 0.00 32.78 2314.3
8 17 92.30 64.50 0.00 33.77 2348.1
8 18 93.40 61.50 0.00 32.57 2380.7
8 19 88.30 57.70 0.00 29.53 2410.2
8 20 89.60 54.10 0.00 28.14 2438.3
8 21 92.10 60.30 0.00 31.74 2470.1
8 22 78.50 55.20 0.00 23.85 2493.9
8 23 83.40 53.20 0.00 25.30 2519.2
8 24 87.70 54.90 0.00 27.97 2547.2 Vx 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
8 25 83.90 52.40 0.00 25.15 2572.3
8 26 89.60 52.60 0.00 27.40 2599.7
8 27 88.50 68.00 0.00 34.63 2634.4
8 28 89.50 64.20 0.00 33.03 2667.4 Vx
8 29 94.70 56.80 0.00 30.61 2698.0 Vx
8 30 80.00 62.40 0.00 28.20 2726.2
8 31 85.90 57.00 0.00 28.38 2754.6
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF25394 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner et al 1997Location: 2016 MF25394 Brown Stephens Hill Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-28-16 | 153 | 50% catch |
| 6-8-16 | 463 | 95% catch, 1% egg hatch |
| 6-15-16 | 601 | 98% catch, 50% egg hatch |
| 6-24-16 | 791 | 95% egg hatch |
| 6-28-16 | 905 | Mostly small larvae present |
| 7-9-16 | 1220 | Mostly large larvae present |
| 7-19-16 | 1481 | 5% catch next generation |
| 8-2-16 | 1917 | 50% catch, 1% egg hatch |
| 8-7-16 | 2054 | 68% catch, 25% egg hatch |
| 8-12-16 | 2181 | 79% catch, 50% egg hatch |
| 8-24-16 | 2547 | 95% catch, 95% egg hatch |
![degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner et al 1997](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?21558)
