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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner et al 1997
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20
Ending date: 8 31
Model validation status: not fully tested
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch
2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch
5. 900 DD after 1st catch: Mostly small larvae present
6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: Mostly large larvae present
7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation
8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF24513 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Burkes Wondra OR Lat45.9542 Long:-118.4481 Elev:839
mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 20 62.30 44.80 0.00 10.55 10.5 * START *
5 21 64.50 47.60 0.00 13.05 23.6
5 22 69.70 53.70 0.00 18.70 42.3
5 23 70.70 51.40 0.00 18.05 60.3 Vx
5 24 73.80 53.00 0.00 20.40 80.8
5 25 78.10 53.00 0.00 22.55 103.3
5 26 72.50 55.50 0.00 21.00 124.3
5 27 68.30 51.40 0.00 16.85 141.1 50% catch
5 28 75.60 50.10 0.00 19.85 161.0
5 29 79.70 55.80 0.00 24.75 185.7
5 30 76.30 50.00 0.00 20.15 205.9
5 31 85.40 45.60 0.00 22.48 228.4
6 1 86.10 52.70 0.00 26.32 254.7
6 2 78.90 65.60 0.00 29.25 283.9
6 3 87.00 59.90 0.00 30.22 314.2
6 4 94.30 53.20 0.00 28.83 343.0
6 5 95.80 55.60 0.00 30.25 373.2
6 6 100.00 65.00 0.00 35.12 408.4 Vx
6 7 100.00 68.10 0.00 36.44 444.8 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
6 8 89.70 70.30 0.00 35.99 480.8
6 9 81.00 61.00 0.00 28.00 508.8
6 10 69.10 54.40 0.00 18.75 527.6
6 11 72.20 51.20 0.00 18.70 546.3
6 12 79.90 49.50 0.00 21.70 568.0
6 13 77.10 56.60 0.00 23.85 591.8 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
6 14 69.60 52.40 0.00 18.00 609.8
6 15 68.60 48.30 0.00 15.45 625.3
6 16 69.70 47.30 0.00 15.50 640.8
6 17 79.10 47.00 0.00 20.05 660.8
6 18 67.20 55.10 0.00 18.15 679.0
6 19 78.20 45.00 0.00 18.60 697.6
6 20 81.70 47.90 0.00 21.80 719.4 Vx
6 21 79.70 58.10 0.00 25.90 745.3
6 22 85.70 50.50 0.00 25.06 770.3 Vx
6 23 80.10 62.30 0.00 28.20 798.5 95% egg hatch
6 24 74.80 55.30 0.00 22.05 820.6
6 25 81.50 53.50 0.00 24.50 845.1 Vx
6 26 90.80 51.20 0.00 27.04 872.1
6 27 93.20 58.30 0.00 31.02 903.1 Vx Mostly small larvae present
6 28 95.00 68.30 0.00 35.94 939.1
6 29 94.40 64.90 0.00 34.32 973.4 Vx Vn
6 30 90.50 65.60 0.00 33.93 1007.3 Vx Vn
7 1 89.00 63.50 0.00 32.57 1039.9 Vx Vn
7 2 89.80 62.80 0.00 32.42 1072.3 Vx Vn
7 3 85.60 65.00 0.00 32.26 1104.6 Vx Vn
7 4 80.50 57.70 0.00 26.10 1130.7 Vx Vn
7 5 80.30 58.40 0.00 26.35 1157.0
7 6 80.60 60.50 0.00 27.55 1184.6 Vx
7 7 81.70 60.70 0.00 28.20 1212.8 Vx Vn Mostly large larvae present
7 8 77.60 61.10 0.00 26.35 1239.1 Vx
7 9 78.00 57.80 0.00 24.90 1264.0 Vx
7 10 69.70 58.90 0.00 21.30 1285.3
7 11 78.50 59.70 0.00 26.10 1311.4
7 12 77.20 58.50 0.00 24.85 1336.3
7 13 83.20 59.70 0.00 28.45 1364.7 Vx
7 14 90.00 53.50 0.00 27.95 1392.7 Vx
7 15 81.40 59.30 0.00 27.35 1420.0 Vx
7 16 83.60 60.60 0.00 29.10 1449.1 Vx
7 17 88.10 60.00 0.00 30.61 1479.7 Vx
7 18 80.80 62.40 0.00 28.60 1508.3 Vx 5% catch next generation
7 19 79.50 61.60 0.00 27.55 1535.9 Vx
7 20 87.70 63.10 0.00 32.02 1567.9 Vx
7 21 95.00 56.50 0.00 30.53 1598.4 Vx
7 22 82.60 64.30 0.00 30.45 1628.9 Vx Vn
7 23 85.20 58.50 0.00 28.84 1657.7
7 24 90.20 55.10 0.00 28.79 1686.5 Vx
7 25 96.70 60.10 0.00 32.49 1719.0 Vx
7 26 95.60 72.90 0.00 38.00 1757.0 Vx
7 27 96.60 70.00 0.00 36.88 1793.9
7 28 99.00 66.40 0.00 35.61 1829.5
7 29 101.90 67.00 0.00 36.17 1865.6 Vx
7 30 94.80 76.30 0.00 39.33 1905.0 Vx 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
7 31 87.20 62.60 0.00 31.62 1936.6 Vx Vn
8 1 90.60 55.40 0.00 29.04 1965.6 Vx Vn
8 2 78.40 61.10 0.00 26.75 1992.4 Vx Vn
8 3 84.10 56.50 0.00 27.30 2019.7 Vx
8 4 92.90 54.20 0.00 29.00 2048.7 Vx Vn
8 5 94.40 54.70 0.00 29.56 2078.2 Vx 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
8 6 89.90 64.30 0.00 33.17 2111.4
8 7 83.00 64.20 0.00 30.60 2142.0 Vx
8 8 78.50 55.00 0.00 23.75 2165.8
8 9 74.50 56.70 0.00 22.60 2188.4 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
8 10 84.00 58.00 0.00 28.00 2216.4 Vx
8 11 90.40 57.60 0.00 30.05 2246.4 Vx Vn
8 12 95.90 61.30 0.00 32.91 2279.3 Vx Vn
8 13 98.00 65.50 0.00 35.10 2314.4 Vx Vn
8 14 95.80 70.70 0.00 37.09 2351.5 Vx Vn
8 15 95.90 62.40 0.00 33.41 2384.9 Vx Vn
8 16 98.80 63.80 0.00 34.45 2419.4
8 17 95.00 65.40 0.00 34.64 2454.0 Vx
8 18 97.50 62.60 0.00 33.75 2487.8
8 19 94.10 59.10 0.00 31.57 2519.3
8 20 99.50 55.80 0.00 30.97 2550.3 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
8 21 98.30 66.40 0.00 35.53 2585.8
8 22 83.80 56.70 0.00 27.25 2613.1
8 23 86.60 51.20 0.00 25.75 2638.8
8 24 86.90 52.80 0.00 26.66 2665.5 Vx
8 25 95.90 50.70 0.00 27.97 2693.5
8 26 94.00 50.00 0.00 27.23 2720.7
8 27 92.80 71.70 0.00 37.15 2757.9
8 28 95.70 59.30 0.00 31.96 2789.8 Vn
8 29 91.80 57.30 0.00 30.24 2820.1 Vx
8 30 85.10 64.10 0.00 31.60 2851.7
8 31 91.90 59.60 0.00 31.37 2883.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF24513 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner et al 1997Location: 2016 MF24513 Burkes Wondra OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-27-16 | 141 | 50% catch |
| 6-7-16 | 445 | 95% catch, 1% egg hatch |
| 6-13-16 | 592 | 98% catch, 50% egg hatch |
| 6-23-16 | 799 | 95% egg hatch |
| 6-27-16 | 903 | Mostly small larvae present |
| 7-7-16 | 1213 | Mostly large larvae present |
| 7-18-16 | 1508 | 5% catch next generation |
| 7-30-16 | 1905 | 50% catch, 1% egg hatch |
| 8-5-16 | 2078 | 68% catch, 25% egg hatch |
| 8-9-16 | 2188 | 79% catch, 50% egg hatch |
| 8-20-16 | 2550 | 95% catch, 95% egg hatch |
![degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner et al 1997](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3740347)
