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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner et al 1997
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20
Ending date: 8 31
Model validation status: not fully tested
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch
2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch
5. 900 DD after 1st catch: Mostly small larvae present
6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: Mostly large larvae present
7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation
8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF23241 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown McClellan OR Lat45.9528 Long:-118.4678 Elev:843
mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 20 62.00 43.10 0.00 9.55 9.5 * START *
5 21 64.90 47.00 0.00 12.95 22.5
5 22 67.80 52.80 0.00 17.30 39.8
5 23 70.40 50.00 0.00 17.20 57.0 Vx
5 24 75.40 53.10 0.00 21.25 78.2
5 25 79.80 52.80 0.00 23.30 101.5
5 26 72.40 54.50 0.00 20.45 122.0
5 27 67.80 50.00 0.00 15.90 137.9
5 28 74.40 47.40 0.00 17.90 155.8 50% catch
5 29 77.00 55.10 0.00 23.05 178.9
5 30 76.60 49.30 0.00 19.95 198.8
5 31 84.20 45.40 0.00 21.80 220.6
6 1 82.70 52.00 0.00 24.35 245.0
6 2 76.10 64.00 0.00 27.05 272.0
6 3 87.20 56.80 0.00 28.75 300.7
6 4 94.10 52.90 0.00 28.64 329.4
6 5 93.70 57.30 0.00 30.65 360.0
6 6 99.90 32.00 0.00 21.83 381.9 Vx
6 7 95.30 66.00 0.00 34.95 416.8
6 8 83.60 65.80 0.00 31.70 448.5 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
6 9 77.50 58.90 0.00 25.20 473.7
6 10 67.00 53.20 0.00 17.10 490.8
6 11 71.60 21.20 0.00 9.79 500.6
6 12 77.50 47.50 0.00 19.50 520.1
6 13 72.50 53.70 0.00 20.10 540.2
6 14 68.70 50.90 0.00 16.80 557.0
6 15 65.70 46.60 0.00 13.15 570.2
6 16 69.00 47.60 0.00 15.30 585.5 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
6 17 77.90 32.00 0.00 14.29 599.8
6 18 67.20 55.00 0.00 18.10 617.9
6 19 73.90 45.50 0.00 16.70 634.6
6 20 81.90 48.80 0.00 22.35 656.9 Vx
6 21 80.80 58.70 0.00 26.75 683.7
6 22 85.40 48.90 0.00 24.13 707.8 Vx Vn
6 23 81.70 62.40 0.00 29.05 736.8 Vx Vn
6 24 73.00 54.50 0.00 20.75 757.6 Vx Vn
6 25 81.60 52.20 0.00 23.90 781.5 Vx Vn 95% egg hatch
6 26 91.00 52.20 0.00 27.58 809.1 Vx Vn
6 27 93.20 61.00 0.00 32.29 841.4 Vx Vn
6 28 94.90 67.70 0.00 35.66 877.0 Vx Vn
6 29 94.30 64.70 0.00 34.21 911.2 Vx Vn Mostly small larvae present
6 30 90.50 65.60 0.00 33.93 945.2 Vx Vn
7 1 89.00 63.50 0.00 32.57 977.7 Vx Vn
7 2 89.80 62.60 0.00 32.33 1010.1 Vx Vn
7 3 85.60 64.90 0.00 32.21 1042.3 Vx Vn
7 4 80.50 57.70 0.00 26.10 1068.4 Vx Vn
7 5 78.50 55.80 0.00 24.15 1092.5 Vx Vn
7 6 80.70 59.40 0.00 27.05 1119.6 Vx Vn
7 7 81.70 60.70 0.00 28.20 1147.8 Vx Vn
7 8 77.60 61.30 0.00 26.45 1174.2 Vx Vn
7 9 77.90 58.70 0.00 25.30 1199.5 Vx Vn
7 10 70.30 59.40 0.00 21.85 1221.4 Vx Vn Mostly large larvae present
7 11 81.00 59.30 0.00 27.15 1248.5 Vx Vn
7 12 80.00 59.90 0.00 26.95 1275.5 Vx Vn
7 13 83.30 56.20 0.00 26.75 1302.2 Vx Vn
7 14 90.00 58.00 0.00 30.15 1332.4 Vx Vn
7 15 81.50 57.40 0.00 26.45 1358.8 Vx Vn
7 16 83.60 59.10 0.00 28.35 1387.2 Vx Vn
7 17 88.70 56.60 0.00 29.11 1416.3 Vx Vn
7 18 80.80 61.50 0.00 28.15 1444.4 Vx Vn
7 19 79.60 60.00 0.00 26.80 1471.2 Vx Vn
7 20 87.70 60.20 0.00 30.59 1501.8 Vx Vn 5% catch next generation
7 21 95.00 55.70 0.00 30.15 1532.0 Vx Vn
7 22 82.70 64.20 0.00 30.45 1562.4 Vx Vn
7 23 84.40 59.40 0.00 28.90 1591.3 Vx Vn
7 24 90.00 53.40 0.00 27.90 1619.2 Vx Vn
7 25 96.40 58.60 0.00 31.75 1651.0 Vx Vn
7 26 96.10 72.30 0.00 37.80 1688.8 Vx Vn
7 27 95.50 69.60 0.00 36.58 1725.4 Vx Vn
7 28 99.30 69.20 0.00 36.83 1762.2 Vx Vn
7 29 101.90 70.70 0.00 37.67 1799.8 Vx Vn
7 30 94.70 72.40 0.00 37.70 1837.5 Vx Vn
7 31 87.10 62.60 0.00 31.59 1869.1 Vx Vn
8 1 90.50 55.20 0.00 28.91 1898.0 Vx Vn 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
8 2 78.20 60.60 0.00 26.40 1924.4 Vx Vn
8 3 84.00 54.80 0.00 26.40 1950.8 Vx Vn
8 4 92.70 53.90 0.00 28.81 1979.7 Vx Vn
8 5 94.40 63.40 0.00 33.63 2013.3 Vx Vn
8 6 89.00 60.70 0.00 31.20 2044.5 Vx Vn
8 7 83.00 62.10 0.00 29.55 2074.0 Vx Vn 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
8 8 76.90 54.20 0.00 22.55 2096.6 Vx Vn
8 9 74.80 57.00 0.00 22.90 2119.5 Vx Vn
8 10 84.00 56.90 0.00 27.45 2146.9 Vx Vn
8 11 90.40 57.60 0.00 30.05 2177.0 Vx Vn 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
8 12 95.80 61.20 0.00 32.85 2209.8 Vx Vn
8 13 98.00 65.50 0.00 35.10 2244.9 Vx Vn
8 14 95.80 70.60 0.00 37.05 2282.0 Vx Vn
8 15 96.00 61.50 0.00 33.02 2315.0 Vx Vn
8 16 95.90 65.10 0.00 34.64 2349.6 Vx Vn
8 17 94.70 63.90 0.00 33.91 2383.6 Vx Vn
8 18 96.80 65.80 0.00 35.08 2418.6 Vx Vn
8 19 89.30 64.50 0.00 33.13 2451.8 Vx Vn
8 20 94.60 55.10 0.00 29.79 2481.5 Vx Vn
8 21 95.40 65.00 0.00 34.52 2516.1 Vx Vn
8 22 80.40 56.00 0.00 25.20 2541.3 Vx Vn 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
8 23 83.10 54.50 0.00 25.80 2567.1 Vx Vn
8 24 86.90 51.70 0.00 26.11 2593.2 Vx Vn
8 25 89.70 51.50 0.00 26.89 2620.1 Vx Vn
8 26 91.50 57.50 0.00 30.27 2650.3 Vx Vn
8 27 91.10 68.90 0.00 35.60 2685.9 Vx Vn
8 28 89.50 62.00 0.00 31.96 2717.9 Vx Vn
8 29 92.00 56.60 0.00 29.95 2747.9 Vx Vn
8 30 82.40 61.70 0.00 29.05 2776.9 Vx Vn
8 31 83.30 59.60 0.00 28.45 2805.4 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF23241 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner et al 1997Location: 2016 MF23241 Brown McClellan OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-28-16 | 156 | 50% catch |
6-8-16 | 449 | 95% catch, 1% egg hatch |
6-16-16 | 585 | 98% catch, 50% egg hatch |
6-25-16 | 781 | 95% egg hatch |
6-29-16 | 911 | Mostly small larvae present |
7-10-16 | 1221 | Mostly large larvae present |
7-20-16 | 1502 | 5% catch next generation |
8-1-16 | 1898 | 50% catch, 1% egg hatch |
8-7-16 | 2074 | 68% catch, 25% egg hatch |
8-11-16 | 2177 | 79% catch, 50% egg hatch |
8-22-16 | 2541 | 95% catch, 95% egg hatch |