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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner et al 1997
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20
Ending date: 8 31
Model validation status: not fully tested
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch
2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch
5. 900 DD after 1st catch: Mostly small larvae present
6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: Mostly large larvae present
7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation
8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF22663 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Burlinggame Lefore OR Lat45.9592 Long:-118.3756 Elev:925
mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 20 61.20 40.90 0.00 8.34 8.3 * START *
5 21 64.10 46.00 0.02 12.05 20.4
5 22 69.10 50.80 0.00 16.95 37.3
5 23 72.00 51.20 0.00 18.60 55.9
5 24 71.90 50.20 0.00 18.05 74.0
5 25 77.70 48.60 0.00 20.15 94.1
5 26 70.50 51.20 0.00 17.85 112.0
5 27 68.30 50.50 0.00 16.40 128.4
5 28 76.30 48.80 0.00 19.55 147.9 50% catch
5 29 78.70 55.30 0.00 24.00 171.9
5 30 75.90 50.60 0.00 20.25 192.2 Vx
5 31 84.40 46.70 0.00 22.55 214.7 Vx
6 1 84.00 52.30 0.00 25.15 239.9
6 2 75.70 62.00 0.00 25.85 265.7
6 3 85.80 57.70 0.00 28.69 294.4
6 4 92.60 51.70 0.00 27.73 322.2
6 5 92.90 56.40 0.00 30.05 352.2
6 6 99.00 65.60 0.00 35.26 387.5 Vx
6 7 97.00 65.70 0.00 35.06 422.5
6 8 86.50 66.90 0.00 33.52 456.1 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
6 9 76.90 58.20 0.00 24.55 480.6
6 10 70.50 52.70 0.04 18.60 499.2
6 11 74.00 48.90 0.00 18.45 517.7
6 12 79.50 46.50 0.00 20.00 537.7
6 13 74.70 54.30 0.00 21.50 559.2 Vx
6 14 70.00 50.40 0.00 17.20 576.4
6 15 69.00 48.30 0.00 15.65 592.0 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
6 16 67.90 47.00 0.02 14.45 606.5
6 17 77.10 46.60 0.00 18.85 625.3
6 18 59.00 54.70 0.07 13.85 639.2
6 19 73.40 46.80 0.00 17.10 656.3
6 20 79.60 47.20 0.00 20.40 676.7
6 21 80.70 58.40 0.00 26.55 703.2
6 22 85.80 50.10 0.00 24.90 728.1
6 23 81.10 58.70 0.00 26.90 755.0
6 24 74.50 54.20 0.01 21.35 776.4
6 25 80.70 49.90 0.00 22.30 798.7 95% egg hatch
6 26 90.80 49.20 0.00 26.07 824.7
6 27 93.30 56.90 0.00 30.38 855.1 Vx
6 28 86.00 64.60 0.02 32.21 887.3
6 29 94.40 66.20 0.00 34.91 922.2 Vx Mostly small larvae present
6 30 91.80 66.20 0.00 34.47 956.7 Vx Vn
7 1 88.90 60.50 0.00 31.08 987.8 Vx
7 2 89.90 62.70 0.00 32.40 1020.2 Vx
7 3 85.40 67.00 0.00 33.17 1053.3 Vx
7 4 80.30 57.30 0.00 25.80 1079.1 Vx Vn
7 5 78.70 55.00 0.00 23.85 1103.0
7 6 80.70 61.00 0.00 27.85 1130.8
7 7 81.30 56.80 0.00 26.05 1156.9 Vx
7 8 77.70 59.70 0.16 25.70 1182.6 Vx
7 9 77.70 57.60 0.07 24.65 1207.2 Mostly large larvae present
7 10 67.80 57.30 0.00 19.55 1226.8
7 11 80.50 58.70 0.00 26.60 1253.4 Vx Vn
7 12 80.00 56.80 0.01 25.40 1278.8
7 13 83.70 57.10 0.00 27.40 1306.2
7 14 89.60 57.60 0.00 29.85 1336.0 Vx
7 15 81.20 56.90 0.00 26.05 1362.1 Vx
7 16 83.50 58.50 0.00 28.00 1390.1 Vx
7 17 87.80 59.80 0.00 30.42 1420.5 Vx
7 18 80.60 59.70 0.00 27.15 1447.7 Vx
7 19 80.00 60.00 0.00 27.00 1474.7
7 20 87.40 61.70 0.00 31.24 1505.9 Vx 5% catch next generation
7 21 95.10 55.60 0.00 30.12 1536.0 Vx
7 22 82.80 63.30 0.00 30.05 1566.1 Vx
7 23 83.90 57.00 0.00 27.45 1593.5 Vx
7 24 90.00 56.20 0.00 29.27 1622.8 Vx
7 25 96.60 63.60 0.00 34.06 1656.9 Vx
7 26 95.20 71.40 0.00 37.32 1694.2 Vx
7 27 95.00 69.20 0.00 36.34 1730.5 Vx Vn
7 28 99.10 67.70 0.00 36.18 1766.7 Vx
7 29 101.50 69.60 0.00 37.20 1803.9 Vx
7 30 94.50 71.70 0.00 37.37 1841.3 Vx Vn
7 31 86.50 59.70 0.00 29.95 1871.2
8 1 90.70 57.30 0.00 29.98 1901.2 Vx Vn 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
8 2 78.70 62.60 0.00 27.65 1928.8
8 3 83.70 56.60 0.00 27.15 1956.0 Vx
8 4 92.80 55.40 0.00 29.55 1985.6 Vx Vn
8 5 93.50 60.80 0.00 32.26 2017.8 Vx
8 6 88.40 63.80 0.00 32.56 2050.4 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
8 7 82.80 62.10 0.00 29.45 2079.8 Vx
8 8 77.50 53.90 0.00 22.70 2102.5 Vx
8 9 74.00 56.00 0.02 22.00 2124.5
8 10 84.00 56.00 0.00 27.00 2151.5 Vx
8 11 90.00 57.50 0.00 29.90 2181.4 Vx Vn 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
8 12 95.50 56.00 0.00 30.39 2211.8 Vx
8 13 97.00 65.10 0.00 34.79 2246.6 Vx Vn
8 14 95.50 69.80 0.00 36.67 2283.3 Vx Vn
8 15 95.70 63.30 0.00 33.79 2317.1 Vx Vn
8 16 95.40 61.20 0.06 32.78 2349.8 Vx
8 17 94.90 62.80 0.04 33.44 2383.3 Vx
8 18 96.40 65.90 0.00 35.07 2418.3 Vx
8 19 86.20 60.40 0.02 30.19 2448.5
8 20 81.20 57.90 0.09 26.55 2475.1
8 21 94.40 59.70 0.00 31.91 2507.0
8 22 78.60 56.00 0.00 24.30 2531.3 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
8 23 82.90 52.50 0.00 24.70 2556.0
8 24 86.90 58.60 0.00 29.54 2585.5 Vx
8 25 89.10 53.60 0.00 27.75 2613.3
8 26 91.20 57.20 0.00 30.05 2643.3
8 27 89.40 67.80 0.00 34.74 2678.1
8 28 89.00 64.00 0.04 32.81 2710.9 Vx
8 29 94.20 57.00 0.00 30.61 2741.5 Vx
8 30 79.70 62.40 0.00 28.05 2769.5
8 31 84.70 58.00 0.00 28.35 2797.9
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF22663 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner et al 1997Location: 2016 MF22663 Burlinggame Lefore OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-28-16 | 148 | 50% catch |
| 6-8-16 | 456 | 95% catch, 1% egg hatch |
| 6-15-16 | 592 | 98% catch, 50% egg hatch |
| 6-25-16 | 799 | 95% egg hatch |
| 6-29-16 | 922 | Mostly small larvae present |
| 7-9-16 | 1207 | Mostly large larvae present |
| 7-20-16 | 1506 | 5% catch next generation |
| 8-1-16 | 1901 | 50% catch, 1% egg hatch |
| 8-6-16 | 2050 | 68% catch, 25% egg hatch |
| 8-11-16 | 2181 | 79% catch, 50% egg hatch |
| 8-22-16 | 2531 | 95% catch, 95% egg hatch |
![degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner et al 1997](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2062152)
