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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: codling moth [apple & pear]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner and Hoyt 1987
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 1
Ending date: 10 31
Model validation status: Fully tested and in use
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 250 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 3% egg hatch
2. 360 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 20% egg hatch
3. 484 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 50% egg hatch
4. 610 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 75% egg hatch
5. 800 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 95% egg hatch
6. 1000 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence
7. 1260 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch
8. 1460 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch
9. 1580 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch
10. 1750 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch
11. 2100 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch
12. 2220 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch
13. 2430 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch
14. 2620 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF26038 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Davis Benito OR Lat45.9742 Long:-118.4092 Elev:866
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
4 10 75.00 50.40 0.00 12.70 12.7 * START *
4 11 71.00 47.50 0.00 9.60 22.3
4 12 67.40 50.90 0.00 9.15 31.4
4 13 65.40 48.50 0.00 7.14 38.6
4 14 62.60 42.30 0.00 4.55 43.1
4 15 67.20 45.00 0.00 7.13 50.3
4 16 72.50 35.10 0.00 7.98 58.2
4 17 76.90 36.60 0.00 10.15 68.4
4 18 80.20 38.70 0.00 12.03 80.4
4 19 83.80 42.70 0.00 14.58 95.0
4 20 86.40 42.90 0.00 15.89 110.9
4 21 79.90 50.50 0.00 15.20 126.1
4 22 78.00 52.40 0.00 15.20 141.3
4 23 72.30 53.30 0.00 12.80 154.1
4 24 66.80 50.10 0.00 8.45 162.5
4 25 65.40 40.00 0.00 5.48 168.0
4 26 67.40 40.30 0.00 6.41 174.4
4 27 63.10 46.90 0.00 5.59 180.0
4 28 71.00 49.40 0.00 10.24 190.3
4 29 57.60 49.50 0.00 3.60 193.9
4 30 68.70 47.60 0.00 8.50 202.4
5 1 78.60 38.10 0.00 11.18 213.5
5 2 85.00 42.90 0.00 15.21 228.8
5 3 89.50 59.90 0.00 24.56 253.3 1st generation, 3% egg hatch
5 4 78.40 57.10 0.00 17.75 271.1
5 5 69.30 45.80 0.00 8.32 279.4 Hx Hn
5 6 77.00 50.50 0.00 13.75 293.1
5 7 84.00 50.90 0.00 17.45 310.6
5 8 77.90 59.20 0.00 18.55 329.1
5 9 64.50 47.60 0.00 6.44 335.6
5 10 73.00 37.10 0.00 8.47 344.0
5 11 83.30 46.00 0.00 15.21 359.2 Vx Vn
5 12 86.50 64.10 0.00 25.30 384.5 1st generation, 20% egg hatch
5 13 82.10 44.40 0.00 14.18 398.7
5 14 68.20 53.50 0.00 10.85 409.6
5 15 58.50 51.20 0.00 4.85 414.4
5 16 72.90 52.20 0.00 12.55 427.0
5 17 79.30 48.30 0.00 13.97 440.9
5 18 81.80 56.10 0.00 18.95 459.9
5 19 67.60 49.60 0.00 8.63 468.5
5 20 62.90 42.70 0.00 4.74 473.3
5 21 65.40 44.50 0.00 6.18 479.4
5 22 67.70 52.20 0.00 9.95 489.4 1st generation, 50% egg hatch
5 23 70.50 51.10 0.00 10.80 500.2 Vx
5 24 76.40 50.00 0.00 13.20 513.4
5 25 79.00 49.40 0.00 14.24 527.6
5 26 70.60 53.20 0.00 11.90 539.5
5 27 68.30 50.90 0.00 9.60 549.1
5 28 76.50 49.30 0.00 12.95 562.1
5 29 79.00 54.30 0.00 16.65 578.7
5 30 76.40 45.10 0.00 11.59 590.3 Vx
5 31 83.20 40.50 0.00 13.80 604.1
6 1 84.40 50.10 0.00 17.25 621.4 1st generation, 75% egg hatch
6 2 76.30 65.20 0.00 20.75 642.1
6 3 86.80 55.00 0.00 20.90 663.0
6 4 91.90 50.50 0.00 20.69 683.7
6 5 92.30 53.80 0.00 22.43 706.1
6 6 99.50 61.90 0.00 27.91 734.0 Vx
6 7 93.00 63.80 0.00 27.51 761.5
6 8 85.30 68.00 0.00 26.65 788.2
6 9 77.60 57.50 0.00 17.55 805.7 1st generation, 95% egg hatch
6 10 67.20 53.60 0.00 10.40 816.1
6 11 72.80 46.90 0.00 10.31 826.5
6 12 79.20 46.10 0.00 13.22 839.7
6 13 74.60 54.10 0.00 14.35 854.0
6 14 69.10 51.40 0.00 10.25 864.3
6 15 67.80 45.90 0.00 7.62 871.9
6 16 69.20 45.70 0.00 8.25 880.1
6 17 76.80 44.30 0.00 11.58 891.7
6 18 67.20 55.60 0.00 11.40 903.1
6 19 76.20 42.20 0.00 10.82 913.9
6 20 81.50 47.10 0.00 14.66 928.6 Vx
6 21 79.90 58.30 0.00 19.10 947.7
6 22 85.00 46.00 0.00 16.05 963.8
6 23 80.40 62.00 0.00 21.20 985.0
6 24 72.80 53.80 0.00 13.30 998.3
6 25 79.80 49.30 0.00 14.59 1012.9 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence
6 26 87.90 47.50 0.00 17.97 1030.8
6 27 91.20 54.40 0.00 22.40 1053.2
6 28 92.60 62.40 0.00 26.73 1079.9
6 29 93.00 60.10 0.00 25.71 1105.6
6 30 87.30 63.90 0.00 25.60 1131.2
7 1 87.00 57.00 0.00 22.00 1153.2
7 2 89.00 61.90 0.00 25.37 1178.6
7 3 85.00 66.80 0.00 25.90 1204.5
7 4 81.10 53.40 0.00 17.25 1221.8
7 5 80.50 51.60 0.00 16.05 1237.8
7 6 81.50 59.20 0.00 20.35 1258.2
7 7 80.00 56.80 0.00 18.40 1276.6 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch
7 8 77.20 60.40 0.00 18.80 1295.4
7 9 77.10 57.90 0.00 17.50 1312.9
7 10 67.70 58.30 0.00 13.00 1325.9
7 11 79.40 58.70 0.00 19.05 1344.9
7 12 79.00 56.30 0.00 17.65 1362.6
7 13 83.70 56.80 0.00 20.25 1382.8
7 14 88.90 51.50 0.00 20.14 1403.0
7 15 81.70 56.80 0.00 19.25 1422.2
7 16 82.50 55.50 0.00 19.00 1441.2
7 17 85.50 54.40 0.00 19.95 1461.2 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch
7 18 80.00 58.90 0.00 19.45 1480.6
7 19 78.80 56.80 0.00 17.80 1498.4
7 20 86.30 58.70 0.00 22.50 1520.9
7 21 92.60 52.80 0.00 22.03 1542.9
7 22 81.30 60.30 0.00 20.80 1563.7
7 23 83.00 53.50 0.00 18.25 1582.0 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch
7 24 88.90 51.00 0.00 19.89 1601.9
7 25 96.90 55.60 0.00 24.46 1626.3 Vx
7 26 92.80 66.60 0.00 28.81 1655.1
7 27 92.60 64.10 0.00 27.55 1682.7
7 28 94.70 64.30 0.00 28.13 1710.8
7 29 96.30 63.00 0.00 27.84 1738.7
7 30 90.50 66.50 0.00 28.15 1766.8 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch
7 31 83.60 57.80 0.00 20.70 1787.5
8 1 86.10 57.90 0.00 22.00 1809.5
8 2 79.20 59.30 0.00 19.25 1828.8
8 3 82.60 52.00 0.00 17.30 1846.1
8 4 91.30 49.30 0.00 19.94 1866.0
8 5 89.60 52.70 0.00 21.01 1887.0
8 6 85.00 59.30 0.00 22.15 1909.2
8 7 82.90 58.40 0.00 20.65 1929.8
8 8 76.50 51.30 0.00 13.90 1943.7 Vx
8 9 73.20 55.10 0.00 14.15 1957.9
8 10 80.30 53.00 0.00 16.65 1974.5
8 11 88.50 52.00 0.00 20.23 1994.8
8 12 92.80 53.60 0.00 22.48 2017.2
8 13 90.50 56.60 0.00 23.26 2040.5
8 14 90.90 61.60 0.00 25.86 2066.3
8 15 96.10 62.10 0.00 27.38 2093.7 Vx
8 16 90.20 60.50 0.00 25.09 2118.8 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch
8 17 91.30 60.90 0.00 25.63 2144.5
8 18 96.80 58.50 0.00 25.82 2170.3 Vx
8 19 87.40 55.70 0.00 21.55 2191.8
8 20 90.60 50.30 0.00 20.17 2212.0
8 21 93.70 55.70 0.00 23.75 2235.7 Vx 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch
8 22 79.50 52.60 0.00 16.05 2251.8 Vx
8 23 80.80 50.10 0.00 15.45 2267.2
8 24 82.90 53.50 0.00 18.20 2285.4
8 25 85.20 49.40 0.00 17.33 2302.8
8 26 86.50 48.10 0.00 17.48 2320.2
8 27 86.60 60.80 0.00 23.70 2343.9
8 28 86.20 60.20 0.00 23.20 2367.1 Vn
8 29 94.40 53.90 0.00 23.05 2390.2 Vx
8 30 79.20 57.50 0.00 18.35 2408.6
8 31 81.70 53.30 0.00 17.50 2426.1
9 1 79.40 62.00 0.00 20.70 2446.8 Vx 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch
9 2 74.50 55.50 0.00 15.00 2461.8
9 3 73.10 55.00 0.00 14.05 2475.8
9 4 74.40 43.10 0.00 10.16 2486.0 Vx
9 5 74.80 47.20 0.00 11.38 2497.3 Vx
9 6 64.30 56.20 0.00 10.25 2507.6
9 7 75.70 55.00 0.00 15.35 2522.9
9 8 77.30 55.30 0.00 16.30 2539.2
9 9 77.50 45.20 0.00 12.15 2551.4
9 10 85.80 43.40 0.00 15.72 2567.1
9 11 76.00 53.80 0.00 14.90 2582.0
9 12 73.30 41.10 0.00 9.25 2591.3 Vx
9 13 70.30 36.20 0.00 7.15 2598.4
9 14 76.50 43.90 0.00 11.34 2609.7
9 15 83.30 44.50 0.00 14.79 2624.5 Vx 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch
9 16 87.70 48.50 0.00 18.22 2642.8 Vx
9 17 69.20 62.00 0.00 15.60 2658.4
9 18 72.60 57.00 0.00 14.80 2673.2 Vx
9 19 68.20 56.70 0.00 12.45 2685.6 Vx
9 20 68.00 48.00 0.00 8.27 2693.9
9 21 64.70 40.80 0.00 5.28 2699.2
9 22 57.80 46.20 0.00 2.96 2702.1 Vx
9 23 66.20 49.20 0.00 7.77 2709.9
9 24 69.80 51.70 0.00 10.75 2720.6
9 25 82.70 44.20 0.00 14.42 2735.1 Vx
9 26 83.10 46.50 0.00 15.26 2750.3 Vx
9 27 81.50 54.60 0.00 18.05 2768.4
9 28 73.60 47.50 0.00 10.88 2779.3
9 29 79.10 46.10 0.00 13.18 2792.4 Vx
9 30 72.40 51.90 0.00 12.15 2804.6
10 1 68.30 47.00 0.00 8.13 2812.7
10 2 65.40 36.20 0.00 5.05 2817.8
10 3 68.20 44.40 0.00 7.48 2825.3 Vx
10 4 65.40 45.80 0.00 6.44 2831.7
10 5 65.50 47.90 0.00 7.01 2838.7
10 6 65.20 48.20 0.00 6.95 2845.7
10 7 64.10 54.10 0.00 9.10 2854.8 Vx
10 8 72.50 48.50 0.00 10.66 2865.4 Vx
10 9 65.50 56.40 0.00 10.95 2876.4
10 10 60.20 48.90 0.00 4.70 2881.1
10 11 56.70 35.50 0.00 1.66 2882.7
10 12 58.20 29.20 0.00 1.91 2884.6 Vx
10 13 61.70 41.50 0.00 4.06 2888.7
10 14 67.70 49.90 0.00 8.80 2897.5
10 15 58.80 49.20 0.00 4.10 2901.6
10 16 64.60 48.70 0.00 6.81 2908.4 Vx
10 17 61.60 49.00 0.00 5.42 2913.8 Vx
10 18 59.20 46.50 0.00 3.65 2917.5
10 19 64.50 39.30 0.00 5.01 2922.5
10 20 68.00 58.70 0.00 13.35 2935.8 Vx
10 21 55.90 51.30 0.00 3.60 2939.4
10 22 61.00 40.80 0.00 3.68 2943.1
10 23 56.50 41.00 0.00 1.87 2945.0
10 24 46.50 43.00 0.00 0.00 2945.0 Vx
10 25 64.40 47.40 0.00 6.34 2951.3
10 26 55.60 52.30 0.00 3.95 2955.3
10 27 55.70 49.60 0.00 2.69 2958.0 Vx
10 28 55.10 41.50 0.00 1.38 2959.3 Vx
10 29 48.90 46.50 0.00 0.00 2959.3
10 30 48.90 44.60 0.00 0.00 2959.3 Vx
10 31 55.60 45.90 0.00 1.94 2961.3
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF26038 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
codling moth model - Brunner and Hoyt 1987Location: 2016 MF26038 Davis Benito OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-3-16 | 253 | 1st generation, 3% egg hatch |
| 5-12-16 | 385 | 1st generation, 20% egg hatch |
| 5-22-16 | 489 | 1st generation, 50% egg hatch |
| 6-1-16 | 621 | 1st generation, 75% egg hatch |
| 6-9-16 | 806 | 1st generation, 95% egg hatch |
| 6-25-16 | 1013 | 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence |
| 7-7-16 | 1277 | 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch |
| 7-17-16 | 1461 | 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch |
| 7-23-16 | 1582 | 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch |
| 7-30-16 | 1767 | 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch |
| 8-16-16 | 2119 | 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch |
| 8-21-16 | 2236 | 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch |
| 9-1-16 | 2447 | 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch |
| 9-15-16 | 2625 | 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch |
![degree-day graph of codling moth [apple & pear] Brunner and Hoyt 1987](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?5263)
