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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: codling moth [apple & pear]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner and Hoyt 1987
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 1
Ending date: 10 31
Model validation status: Fully tested and in use
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 250 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 3% egg hatch
2. 360 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 20% egg hatch
3. 484 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 50% egg hatch
4. 610 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 75% egg hatch
5. 800 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 95% egg hatch
6. 1000 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence
7. 1260 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch
8. 1460 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch
9. 1580 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch
10. 1750 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch
11. 2100 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch
12. 2220 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch
13. 2430 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch
14. 2620 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF24644 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown Fuji OR Lat45.9431 Long:-118.4389 Elev:941
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
4 10 72.90 50.40 0.00 11.65 11.7 * START *
4 11 75.00 49.20 0.00 12.16 23.8
4 12 66.00 51.40 0.00 8.70 32.5
4 13 63.40 47.20 0.02 5.80 38.3
4 14 61.90 44.30 0.02 4.53 42.8
4 15 64.30 44.80 0.01 5.72 48.6
4 16 69.50 45.30 0.00 8.30 56.9
4 17 74.90 46.30 0.00 11.17 68.0
4 18 79.00 49.80 0.00 14.41 82.4
4 19 81.40 52.70 0.00 17.05 99.5
4 20 84.90 53.30 0.00 19.10 118.6
4 21 79.30 58.60 0.00 18.95 137.5
4 22 76.80 55.00 0.00 15.90 153.4
4 23 69.60 52.30 0.00 10.95 164.4
4 24 65.00 51.20 0.00 8.10 172.5
4 25 64.90 42.20 0.00 5.57 178.1
4 26 68.70 44.70 0.00 7.78 185.8
4 27 64.10 49.70 0.00 6.92 192.8
4 28 73.00 50.60 0.00 11.80 204.6
4 29 58.40 51.40 0.00 4.90 209.5
4 30 71.70 47.10 0.00 9.83 219.3
5 1 79.80 47.00 0.00 13.79 233.1
5 2 87.60 53.20 0.00 20.40 253.5 1st generation, 3% egg hatch
5 3 91.90 65.60 0.00 28.10 281.6
5 4 80.00 60.50 0.09 20.25 301.8
5 5 68.70 45.80 0.00 8.03 309.9 Hx Hn
5 6 80.00 54.20 0.00 17.10 327.0
5 7 86.20 55.70 0.00 20.95 347.9
5 8 77.20 53.90 0.00 15.55 363.5 1st generation, 20% egg hatch
5 9 66.10 46.90 0.00 7.04 370.5
5 10 73.30 43.00 0.00 9.61 380.1
5 11 80.80 46.50 0.00 14.13 394.2 Vx Vn
5 12 88.40 63.20 0.00 25.78 420.0
5 13 82.90 47.90 0.00 15.62 435.6
5 14 68.60 53.90 0.12 11.25 446.9
5 15 59.00 52.10 0.03 5.55 452.4
5 16 75.30 51.90 0.02 13.60 466.0
5 17 82.70 52.00 0.00 17.35 483.4
5 18 82.90 60.00 0.00 21.45 504.8 1st generation, 50% egg hatch
5 19 66.60 48.10 0.00 7.61 512.4
5 20 63.10 44.20 0.00 5.06 517.5
5 21 65.90 48.70 0.05 7.45 525.0
5 22 68.80 52.70 0.00 10.75 535.7
5 23 69.90 50.30 0.00 10.10 545.8 Vx
5 24 74.40 53.30 0.00 13.85 559.7
5 25 80.10 54.40 0.00 17.25 576.9
5 26 72.20 53.30 0.00 12.75 589.7
5 27 69.10 50.10 0.00 9.60 599.3
5 28 78.40 49.20 0.00 13.86 613.1 1st generation, 75% egg hatch
5 29 78.70 56.00 0.00 17.35 630.5
5 30 78.50 51.20 0.00 14.85 645.3
5 31 86.60 50.80 0.00 18.70 664.0
6 1 89.00 57.80 0.00 23.32 687.3
6 2 78.80 64.50 0.00 21.65 709.0
6 3 91.50 59.10 0.00 24.81 733.8
6 4 98.50 57.90 0.00 25.87 759.7
6 5 99.70 64.20 0.00 28.99 788.7
6 6 99.00 69.00 0.00 31.05 819.7 Vx 1st generation, 95% egg hatch
6 7 97.10 70.80 0.00 31.59 851.3
6 8 88.80 75.60 0.00 32.12 883.4
6 9 78.60 59.40 0.00 19.00 902.4
6 10 71.80 52.80 0.04 12.30 914.7
6 11 75.70 50.30 0.00 13.00 927.7
6 12 78.70 49.20 0.00 14.01 941.7
6 13 76.00 58.30 0.00 17.15 958.9
6 14 71.50 50.30 0.00 10.90 969.8
6 15 68.90 46.10 0.00 8.20 978.0
6 16 72.00 49.20 0.01 10.66 988.6
6 17 79.10 49.80 0.00 14.46 1003.1 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence
6 18 69.10 54.60 0.09 11.85 1014.9
6 19 78.80 46.90 0.00 13.26 1028.2
6 20 81.50 52.50 0.00 17.00 1045.2 Vx
6 21 81.30 58.40 0.00 19.85 1065.0
6 22 87.80 54.20 0.00 21.00 1086.0
6 23 83.30 61.10 0.00 22.20 1108.2
6 24 74.50 54.60 0.00 14.55 1122.8
6 25 81.20 52.80 0.00 17.00 1139.8
6 26 91.60 54.90 0.00 22.77 1162.6
6 27 92.80 60.40 0.00 25.80 1188.4 Vx Vn
6 28 93.50 68.70 0.00 29.97 1218.3
6 29 94.00 67.90 0.00 29.70 1248.0 Vx
6 30 90.00 65.00 0.00 27.26 1275.3 Vx Vn 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch
7 1 90.70 64.60 0.00 27.28 1302.6
7 2 89.50 62.80 0.00 26.00 1328.6 Vx Vn
7 3 85.30 68.30 0.00 26.80 1355.4 Vx
7 4 83.10 58.10 0.00 20.60 1376.0
7 5 81.50 57.20 0.00 19.35 1395.3
7 6 80.10 59.70 0.00 19.90 1415.2
7 7 81.40 62.20 0.00 21.80 1437.0 Vx
7 8 77.50 59.90 0.13 18.70 1455.7 Vx
7 9 77.50 57.30 0.07 17.40 1473.1 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch
7 10 69.20 57.90 0.00 13.55 1486.7
7 11 81.50 58.90 0.00 20.20 1506.9
7 12 78.00 57.70 0.02 17.85 1524.7
7 13 83.30 57.70 0.00 20.50 1545.2
7 14 89.50 57.20 0.00 23.21 1568.4 Vx
7 15 81.00 60.20 0.00 20.60 1589.0 Vx 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch
7 16 83.30 59.90 0.00 21.60 1610.6 Vx
7 17 87.40 60.50 0.00 23.95 1634.6 Vx
7 18 80.70 62.50 0.00 21.60 1656.2 Vx
7 19 79.40 61.70 0.00 20.55 1676.7 Vx
7 20 87.10 64.30 0.00 25.70 1702.4 Vx
7 21 94.50 60.00 0.00 26.03 1728.5 Vx
7 22 82.30 65.10 0.00 23.70 1752.2 Vx 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch
7 23 86.50 58.20 0.00 22.35 1774.5
7 24 89.80 59.70 0.00 24.56 1799.1 Vx
7 25 96.30 65.50 0.00 29.02 1828.1 Vx
7 26 95.20 73.80 0.00 32.66 1860.8 Vx
7 27 96.30 68.80 0.00 30.55 1891.3
7 28 100.60 71.70 0.00 32.44 1923.7
7 29 101.40 70.90 0.00 32.19 1955.9 Vx
7 30 95.10 72.50 0.00 32.05 1988.0
7 31 86.50 62.30 0.00 24.40 2012.4
8 1 90.00 56.20 0.00 22.89 2035.3 Vx Vn
8 2 78.10 61.50 0.00 19.80 2055.1 Vx Vn
8 3 83.40 57.20 0.00 20.30 2075.4 Vx
8 4 92.30 54.80 0.00 22.92 2098.3 Vx Vn
8 5 93.90 63.60 0.00 27.62 2125.9 Vx 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch
8 6 89.20 65.50 0.00 27.23 2153.2
8 7 82.70 63.50 0.00 23.10 2176.3 Vx
8 8 77.50 54.50 0.00 16.00 2192.3
8 9 74.00 57.50 0.00 15.75 2208.0
8 10 83.80 58.30 0.00 21.05 2229.1 Vx 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch
8 11 89.80 60.00 0.00 24.71 2253.8 Vx
8 12 96.00 63.40 0.00 27.97 2281.7
8 13 98.00 65.80 0.00 29.45 2311.2
8 14 95.40 70.60 0.00 31.23 2342.4 Vx
8 15 95.40 62.60 0.00 27.47 2369.9 Vx Vn
8 16 96.80 67.80 0.00 30.17 2400.1
8 17 93.40 67.00 0.00 29.14 2429.2
8 18 97.30 69.00 0.00 30.80 2460.0 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch
8 19 92.00 64.90 0.00 27.79 2487.8
8 20 95.70 65.30 0.00 28.81 2516.6
8 21 95.80 72.20 0.00 32.03 2548.6
8 22 83.50 58.10 0.00 20.80 2569.4
8 23 85.70 56.80 0.00 21.25 2590.7
8 24 86.30 61.90 0.00 24.10 2614.8 Vx
8 25 89.50 59.20 0.00 24.21 2639.0 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch
8 26 94.50 61.00 0.00 26.51 2665.5
8 27 91.80 72.30 0.00 31.32 2696.8
8 28 88.80 66.90 0.00 27.78 2724.6 Vx
8 29 91.30 62.10 0.00 26.22 2750.8 Vx
8 30 81.70 67.20 0.00 24.45 2775.3
8 31 85.90 60.90 0.00 23.40 2798.7
9 1 79.70 58.90 0.00 19.30 2818.0
9 2 77.90 54.50 0.01 16.20 2834.2
9 3 73.80 57.50 0.00 15.65 2849.8
9 4 78.70 51.60 0.00 15.15 2865.0
9 5 74.30 54.20 0.00 14.25 2879.2 Vx
9 6 65.80 55.50 0.06 10.65 2889.9
9 7 79.10 60.30 0.00 19.70 2909.6
9 8 81.40 60.00 0.00 20.70 2930.3
9 9 79.60 52.40 0.00 16.00 2946.3
9 10 92.20 56.30 0.00 23.63 2969.9
9 11 77.20 59.50 0.00 18.35 2988.3
9 12 72.70 45.30 0.00 9.84 2998.1 Vx
9 13 75.80 45.70 0.00 11.45 3009.6
9 14 81.60 54.20 0.00 17.90 3027.5
9 15 85.00 57.70 0.00 21.35 3048.8
9 16 88.70 60.80 0.00 24.70 3073.5
9 17 72.40 65.60 0.00 19.00 3092.5
9 18 72.40 61.20 0.00 16.80 3109.3
9 19 67.70 59.00 0.00 13.35 3122.7 Vx
9 20 73.60 52.00 0.00 12.80 3135.5
9 21 68.20 48.30 0.00 8.46 3143.9
9 22 57.60 51.50 0.00 4.55 3148.5
9 23 67.20 53.50 0.00 10.35 3158.8
9 24 72.00 51.90 0.00 11.95 3170.8
9 25 87.10 56.60 0.00 21.85 3192.6
9 26 82.40 56.60 0.00 19.50 3212.1 Vx
9 27 86.40 66.90 0.00 26.65 3238.8
9 28 79.10 55.90 0.00 17.50 3256.3
9 29 83.00 56.30 0.00 19.65 3275.9
9 30 75.40 56.30 0.00 15.85 3291.8
10 1 71.00 49.00 0.00 10.09 3301.9
10 2 67.70 47.40 0.00 7.95 3309.8
10 3 68.90 49.60 0.00 9.27 3319.1
10 4 66.50 48.40 0.05 7.65 3326.7
10 5 65.20 51.20 0.00 8.20 3334.9
10 6 68.60 50.70 0.00 9.65 3344.6
10 7 63.70 54.10 0.03 8.90 3353.5 Vx
10 8 72.70 52.90 0.00 12.80 3366.3 Vx
10 9 67.00 55.60 0.00 11.30 3377.6
10 10 61.50 47.80 0.09 5.03 3382.6
10 11 58.70 40.00 0.00 2.66 3385.3
10 12 58.90 35.60 0.00 2.44 3387.7
10 13 61.10 44.00 0.03 4.12 3391.8
10 14 66.40 52.30 0.09 9.35 3401.2
10 15 59.60 51.80 0.07 5.70 3406.9
10 16 64.40 50.40 0.00 7.40 3414.3
10 17 60.20 49.60 0.01 4.93 3419.2 Vx
10 18 58.90 48.80 0.00 4.03 3423.2
10 19 65.70 44.60 0.00 6.34 3429.6
10 20 68.40 56.50 0.02 12.45 3442.0
10 21 57.10 49.90 0.10 3.50 3445.5
10 22 61.30 45.70 0.00 4.49 3450.0
10 23 55.90 45.50 0.00 2.02 3452.0
10 24 58.30 45.80 0.00 3.12 3455.2 Vx
10 25 65.00 49.80 0.00 7.41 3462.6
10 26 54.50 51.90 0.04 3.20 3465.8
10 27 55.40 50.50 0.01 2.95 3468.7 Vx
10 28 58.30 48.30 0.00 3.60 3472.3 Vx
10 29 47.70 45.10 0.11 0.00 3472.3
10 30 49.20 43.60 0.06 0.00 3472.3
10 31 57.80 49.00 0.00 3.54 3475.9
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF24644 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
codling moth model - Brunner and Hoyt 1987Location: 2016 MF24644 Brown Fuji OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-2-16 | 253 | 1st generation, 3% egg hatch |
| 5-8-16 | 363 | 1st generation, 20% egg hatch |
| 5-18-16 | 505 | 1st generation, 50% egg hatch |
| 5-28-16 | 613 | 1st generation, 75% egg hatch |
| 6-6-16 | 820 | 1st generation, 95% egg hatch |
| 6-17-16 | 1003 | 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence |
| 6-30-16 | 1275 | 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch |
| 7-9-16 | 1473 | 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch |
| 7-15-16 | 1589 | 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch |
| 7-22-16 | 1752 | 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch |
| 8-5-16 | 2126 | 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch |
| 8-10-16 | 2229 | 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch |
| 8-18-16 | 2460 | 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch |
| 8-25-16 | 2639 | 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch |
![degree-day graph of codling moth [apple & pear] Brunner and Hoyt 1987](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?16941)
