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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: codling moth revised 07 [apple & pear]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 2007
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 1
Ending date: 10 31
Model validation status: actively undergoing evaluation
Region of known use: used in WA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 220 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight
2. 340 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight
3. 460 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight
4. 535 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight
5. 655 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
6. 755 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight
7. 920 DDs after biofix: 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight
8. 980 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 5% moth flight
9. 1160 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight
10. 1480 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight
11. 1605 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight
12. 1765 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight
13. 1940 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight
14. 2120 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight
15. 2200 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight
16. 2300 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF26036 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Davis Mackenzie Gala OR Lat:45.9714 Long:-118.4039 Elev:876
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
4 10 75.20 51.30 0.00 13.25 13.2 * START *
4 11 71.10 47.90 0.00 9.77 23.0
4 12 69.70 51.20 0.00 10.45 33.5
4 13 65.00 48.70 0.00 7.01 40.5
4 14 64.70 44.00 0.00 5.76 46.2
4 15 66.10 45.20 0.00 6.65 52.9
4 16 71.50 36.90 0.00 7.77 60.7
4 17 77.10 38.60 0.00 10.57 71.2
4 18 79.60 39.70 0.00 11.93 83.2
4 19 83.90 45.30 0.00 15.30 98.5
4 20 84.80 44.30 0.00 15.47 113.9
4 21 78.80 52.50 0.00 15.65 129.6
4 22 77.20 53.10 0.00 15.15 144.7
4 23 71.70 52.50 0.00 12.10 156.8
4 24 67.70 49.60 0.00 8.68 165.5
4 25 66.40 41.50 0.00 6.14 171.7
4 26 64.30 42.90 0.00 5.40 177.1
4 27 61.50 48.10 0.00 5.11 182.2
4 28 69.70 50.30 0.00 10.00 192.2
4 29 58.00 49.90 0.00 3.95 196.1
4 30 68.10 48.00 0.00 8.32 204.4
5 1 77.40 40.40 0.00 11.03 215.5
5 2 84.80 45.00 0.00 15.66 231.1 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight
5 3 68.70 66.50 0.00 17.60 248.7 Hx
5 4 78.10 57.00 0.00 17.55 266.3
5 5 69.30 45.70 0.00 8.29 274.6 Hx Hn
5 6 76.00 51.20 0.00 13.60 288.2
5 7 82.40 52.60 0.00 17.50 305.7
5 8 79.10 60.10 0.00 19.60 325.3
5 9 65.00 47.70 0.00 6.71 332.0
5 10 77.80 40.00 0.00 11.15 343.1 Vx 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight
5 11 83.20 46.00 0.00 15.16 358.3 Vx Vn
5 12 84.60 63.00 0.00 23.80 382.1
5 13 82.40 46.80 0.00 15.01 397.1
5 14 68.00 54.10 0.00 11.05 408.2
5 15 58.90 52.00 0.00 5.45 413.6
5 16 72.80 52.50 0.00 12.65 426.3
5 17 78.40 50.70 0.00 14.55 440.8
5 18 82.90 57.80 0.00 20.35 461.2 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight
5 19 67.70 49.50 0.00 8.63 469.8
5 20 61.90 43.70 0.00 4.43 474.2
5 21 66.30 45.50 0.00 6.81 481.0
5 22 67.40 51.70 0.00 9.55 490.6
5 23 70.40 51.20 0.00 10.80 501.4 Vx
5 24 76.60 51.60 0.00 14.10 515.5
5 25 78.20 48.70 0.00 13.57 529.0
5 26 70.80 51.90 0.00 11.35 540.4 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight
5 27 68.80 50.90 0.00 9.85 550.2
5 28 75.70 49.70 0.00 12.71 563.0
5 29 78.70 54.80 0.00 16.75 579.7
5 30 76.30 47.40 0.00 12.18 591.9 Vx
5 31 83.70 45.90 0.00 15.38 607.3
6 1 84.40 51.30 0.00 17.85 625.1
6 2 76.60 65.20 0.00 20.90 646.0
6 3 87.40 56.30 0.00 21.85 667.9 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
6 4 94.00 51.70 0.00 21.88 689.8
6 5 94.80 55.20 0.00 23.78 713.5
6 6 99.80 66.20 0.00 29.91 743.4 Vx
6 7 96.70 67.00 0.00 29.79 773.2 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight
6 8 87.30 73.00 0.00 30.15 803.4
6 9 78.50 58.70 0.00 18.60 822.0 Vx
6 10 69.10 54.50 0.00 11.80 833.8
6 11 72.10 50.00 0.00 11.05 844.8 Vx Vn
6 12 78.60 49.20 0.00 13.96 858.8 Vx Vn
6 13 75.00 58.40 0.00 16.70 875.5 Vx Vn
6 14 68.80 51.60 0.00 10.20 885.7 Vx Vn
6 15 67.90 46.80 0.00 7.89 893.6 Vx Vn
6 16 68.40 49.40 0.00 8.95 902.5 Vx Vn
6 17 78.60 48.80 0.00 13.80 916.3 Vx Vn
6 18 67.30 55.60 0.00 11.45 927.8 Vx 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight
6 19 77.20 46.70 0.00 12.42 940.2 Vx Vn
6 20 81.50 50.10 0.00 15.80 956.0 Vx Vn
6 21 79.80 58.50 0.00 19.15 975.1 Vx Vn
6 22 85.90 49.40 0.00 17.68 992.8 Vx Vn 2nd generation: 5% moth flight
6 23 81.60 61.60 0.00 21.60 1014.4 Vx Vn
6 24 73.20 54.70 0.00 13.95 1028.4 Vx
6 25 81.50 51.80 0.00 16.65 1045.0 Vx Vn
6 26 91.60 52.50 0.00 21.58 1066.6 Vx Vn
6 27 93.60 60.40 0.00 26.01 1092.6 Vx Vn
6 28 95.30 66.60 0.00 29.34 1122.0 Vx Vn
6 29 94.60 65.40 0.00 28.64 1150.6 Vx Vn
6 30 90.70 66.30 0.00 28.11 1178.7 Vx Vn 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight
7 1 89.00 63.30 0.00 26.07 1204.8 Vx Vn
7 2 90.00 63.10 0.00 26.32 1231.1 Vx Vn
7 3 85.70 64.80 0.00 25.25 1256.3 Vx Vn
7 4 80.50 57.60 0.00 19.05 1275.4 Vx Vn
7 5 78.20 55.40 0.00 16.80 1292.2 Vx Vn
7 6 80.70 59.40 0.00 20.05 1312.2 Vx Vn
7 7 81.50 60.50 0.00 21.00 1333.2 Vx Vn
7 8 77.90 60.70 0.00 19.30 1352.5 Vx
7 9 77.00 57.60 0.00 17.30 1369.8
7 10 67.80 58.00 0.00 12.90 1382.7
7 11 80.80 58.50 0.00 19.65 1402.4 Vx
7 12 79.30 56.80 0.00 18.05 1420.4
7 13 83.40 57.50 0.00 20.45 1440.9 Vx
7 14 89.80 53.70 0.00 21.58 1462.5 Vx
7 15 81.50 58.70 0.00 20.10 1482.6 Vx 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight
7 16 83.70 58.10 0.00 20.90 1503.5 Vx
7 17 88.10 56.70 0.00 22.40 1525.9 Vx
7 18 80.80 59.60 0.00 20.20 1546.1 Vx
7 19 80.20 58.20 0.00 19.20 1565.3 Vx
7 20 87.40 62.50 0.00 24.95 1590.2 Vx
7 21 95.20 54.50 0.00 23.54 1613.8 Vx 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight
7 22 83.00 64.60 0.00 23.80 1637.6 Vx Vn
7 23 78.70 55.40 0.00 17.05 1654.6
7 24 90.40 53.50 0.00 21.69 1676.3 Vx
7 25 96.90 59.80 0.00 26.45 1702.7 Vx
7 26 95.90 72.40 0.00 32.13 1734.9 Vx Vn
7 27 88.10 66.50 0.00 27.30 1762.2
7 28 91.10 66.60 0.00 28.38 1790.6 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight
7 29 101.70 65.40 0.00 29.82 1820.4 Vx
7 30 94.70 71.80 0.00 31.66 1852.0 Vx Vn
7 31 87.00 62.40 0.00 24.70 1876.7 Vx Vn
8 1 90.90 56.90 0.00 23.54 1900.3 Vx Vn
8 2 78.80 62.50 0.00 20.65 1920.9 Vx Vn
8 3 84.00 53.50 0.00 18.75 1939.7 Vx
8 4 93.10 55.10 0.00 23.30 1963.0 Vx Vn 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight
8 5 94.20 55.30 0.00 23.68 1986.7 Vx
8 6 87.80 63.70 0.00 25.75 2012.4 Vx Vn
8 7 82.70 61.40 0.00 22.05 2034.5 Vx Vn
8 8 76.60 53.80 0.00 15.20 2049.7 Vx Vn
8 9 73.40 55.90 0.00 14.65 2064.3
8 10 84.40 56.00 0.00 20.20 2084.5 Vx Vn
8 11 90.30 57.60 0.00 23.69 2108.2 Vx Vn
8 12 95.70 61.30 0.00 26.92 2135.1 Vx Vn 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight
8 13 97.80 65.40 0.00 29.24 2164.3 Vx Vn
8 14 95.60 69.90 0.00 30.94 2195.3 Vx Vn
8 15 96.00 63.90 0.00 28.21 2223.5 Vx Vn 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight
8 16 95.70 65.00 0.00 28.67 2252.2 Vx Vn
8 17 95.10 64.00 0.00 28.07 2280.2 Vx Vn
8 18 96.70 65.80 0.00 29.23 2309.5 Vx Vn 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight
8 19 90.60 64.00 0.00 26.95 2336.4 Vx Vn
8 20 92.00 54.50 0.00 22.69 2359.1
8 21 94.10 66.70 0.00 29.15 2388.3 Vx Vn
8 22 79.50 56.80 0.00 18.15 2406.4 Vx Vn
8 23 82.80 54.60 0.00 18.70 2425.1 Vx Vn
8 24 87.10 54.00 0.00 20.55 2445.7 Vx Vn
8 25 89.50 52.90 0.00 21.07 2466.7 Vx Vn
8 26 91.50 56.30 0.00 23.43 2490.2 Vx Vn
8 27 90.80 68.80 0.00 29.37 2519.5 Vx Vn
8 28 89.20 60.30 0.00 24.65 2544.2 Vx Vn
8 29 94.40 57.60 0.00 24.85 2569.0 Vx Vn
8 30 82.20 62.80 0.00 22.50 2591.5 Vx Vn
8 31 83.20 59.40 0.00 21.30 2612.8 Vx Vn
9 1 79.00 59.60 0.00 19.30 2632.1 Vx Vn
9 2 74.80 55.30 0.00 15.05 2647.2 Vx Vn
9 3 73.00 53.20 0.00 13.10 2660.3 Vx Vn
9 4 74.40 46.80 0.00 11.07 2671.3 Vx Vn
9 5 74.80 52.20 0.00 13.50 2684.8 Vx Vn
9 6 65.60 55.70 0.00 10.65 2695.5 Vx Vn
9 7 77.40 57.40 0.00 17.40 2712.9 Vx Vn
9 8 78.00 56.60 0.00 17.30 2730.2 Vx Vn
9 9 78.70 46.80 0.00 13.18 2743.4 Vx Vn
9 10 89.00 51.50 0.00 20.18 2763.5 Vx Vn
9 11 75.70 51.30 0.00 13.50 2777.0 Vx Vn
9 12 73.20 43.80 0.00 9.74 2786.8 Vx Vn
9 13 72.50 42.30 0.00 9.10 2795.9 Vx Vn
9 14 78.70 47.40 0.00 13.37 2809.2 Vx Vn
9 15 83.20 53.50 0.00 18.35 2827.6 Vx Vn
9 16 87.70 53.70 0.00 20.70 2848.3 Vx Vn
9 17 72.20 62.50 0.00 17.35 2865.6 Vx Vn
9 18 72.40 59.80 0.00 16.10 2881.7 Vx Vn
9 19 68.10 57.20 0.00 12.65 2894.4 Vx Vn
9 20 68.60 48.30 0.00 8.66 2903.1 Vx Vn
9 21 67.30 45.50 0.00 7.29 2910.3 Vx Vn
9 22 57.80 43.80 0.00 2.64 2913.0 Vx Vn
9 23 67.60 52.00 0.00 9.80 2922.8 Vx Vn
9 24 70.50 52.50 0.00 11.50 2934.3 Vx Vn
9 25 82.70 49.90 0.00 16.30 2950.6 Vx Vn
9 26 83.00 50.30 0.00 16.65 2967.2 Vx Vn
9 27 84.00 59.40 0.00 21.70 2988.9 Vx Vn
9 28 76.80 50.60 0.00 13.70 3002.6 Vx Vn
9 29 79.10 50.50 0.00 14.80 3017.4 Vx Vn
9 30 74.30 54.60 0.00 14.45 3031.9 Vx Vn
10 1 70.50 48.60 0.00 9.70 3041.6 Vx Vn
10 2 67.20 39.50 0.00 6.21 3047.8 Vx Vn
10 3 68.10 48.10 0.00 8.35 3056.2 Vx Vn
10 4 66.60 47.60 0.00 7.47 3063.6 Vx
10 5 64.60 49.70 0.00 7.17 3070.8 Vx Vn
10 6 66.30 51.30 0.00 8.80 3079.6 Vx Vn
10 7 64.00 56.10 0.00 10.05 3089.6 Vx Vn
10 8 72.50 50.40 0.00 11.45 3101.1 Vx Vn
10 9 66.20 53.90 0.00 10.05 3111.1 Vx Vn
10 10 60.50 48.70 0.00 4.79 3115.9 Vx
10 11 58.90 38.00 0.00 2.59 3118.5 Vx Vn
10 12 58.00 30.80 0.00 1.90 3120.4 Vx Vn
10 13 59.70 39.30 0.00 3.00 3123.4 Vx Vn
10 14 68.00 52.60 0.00 10.30 3133.7 Vx Vn
10 15 61.40 50.50 0.00 5.95 3139.7 Vx Vn
10 16 64.60 51.30 0.00 7.95 3147.6 Vx Vn
10 17 61.50 48.80 0.00 5.31 3152.9 Vx Vn
10 18 59.10 48.30 0.00 3.99 3156.9 Vx Vn
10 19 65.60 43.40 0.00 6.08 3163.0 Vx Vn
10 20 68.00 56.60 0.00 12.30 3175.3 Vx Vn
10 21 55.30 51.20 0.00 3.25 3178.5
10 22 61.60 43.80 0.00 4.31 3182.9 Vx Vn
10 23 56.10 41.90 0.00 1.78 3184.6 Vx Vn
10 24 45.80 33.20 0.00 0.00 3184.6 Vx Vn
10 25 65.30 48.10 0.00 6.97 3191.6 Vx
10 26 56.60 52.10 0.00 4.35 3196.0 Vx
10 27 55.70 49.40 0.00 2.63 3198.6 Vx
10 28 54.40 42.90 0.00 1.21 3199.8 Vx
10 29 48.70 46.10 0.00 0.00 3199.8
10 30 48.90 44.50 0.00 0.00 3199.8 Vx
10 31 56.10 46.10 0.00 2.18 3202.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF26036 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
codling moth revised 07 model - Knight 2007Location: 2016 MF26036 Davis Mackenzie Gala Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-2-16 | 231 | 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight |
| 5-10-16 | 343 | 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight |
| 5-18-16 | 461 | 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight |
| 5-26-16 | 540 | 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight |
| 6-3-16 | 668 | 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight |
| 6-7-16 | 773 | 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight |
| 6-18-16 | 928 | 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight |
| 6-22-16 | 993 | 2nd generation: 5% moth flight |
| 6-30-16 | 1179 | 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight |
| 7-15-16 | 1483 | 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight |
| 7-21-16 | 1614 | 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight |
| 7-28-16 | 1791 | 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight |
| 8-4-16 | 1963 | 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight |
| 8-12-16 | 2135 | 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight |
| 8-15-16 | 2223 | 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight |
| 8-18-16 | 2309 | 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight |
![degree-day graph of codling moth revised 07 [apple & pear] Knight 2007](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?40153)
