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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: spongy moth from Jan 1 [oak-maple]
Type: invasive insect
Model source/other links: Sheehan-simpl.
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 42 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 106 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 027327223
Model validation status: experimental
Region of known use: Midwest & PNW US
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 346 DDs after Jan 1: 2% egg hatch
2. 596 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 1st instar
3. 871 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 2nd instar
4. 1052 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 3rd instar
5. 1274 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 4th instar
6. 1637 DDs after Jan 1: 2% pupation
7. 1727 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 5th and 6th instar
8. 2068 DDs after Jan 1: 50% pupation
9. 2180 DDs after Jan 1: 2% adult emergence
10. 2539 DDs after Jan 1: 50% adult emergence
11. 2646 DDs after Jan 1: Final 6th instars present
12. 3250 DDs after Jan 1: 98% adult emergence
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2018 CRVO Agrimet CORVALLIS OR Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 Elev:230
mn day max min precip DD42 CUMDD42 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 42.40 28.90 0.00 0.03 0.0 * START *
1 2 43.40 33.00 0.00 0.22 0.3
1 3 45.60 34.10 0.00 0.88 1.1
1 4 44.30 35.10 0.03 0.50 1.6
1 5 52.30 39.80 0.43 4.45 6.1
1 6 48.70 33.50 0.10 1.99 8.1
1 7 46.80 35.20 0.02 1.37 9.4
1 8 44.10 35.70 0.03 0.46 9.9
1 9 50.80 42.80 0.58 4.80 14.7
1 10 49.40 39.40 0.09 2.98 17.7
1 11 56.50 48.90 0.83 10.70 28.4
1 12 53.90 48.20 0.04 9.05 37.4
1 13 56.60 39.40 0.00 6.44 43.9
1 14 47.50 36.60 0.01 1.76 45.6
1 15 53.10 33.30 0.12 3.77 49.4
1 16 55.60 41.20 0.01 6.48 55.9
1 17 63.00 39.10 0.16 9.48 65.4
1 18 50.90 41.30 0.59 4.18 69.5
1 19 47.20 39.50 0.15 1.98 71.5
1 20 48.40 37.80 0.01 2.27 73.8
1 21 47.40 40.30 0.12 2.21 76.0
1 22 50.00 36.30 0.09 2.79 78.8
1 23 50.10 37.00 0.67 2.92 81.7
1 24 50.60 39.50 0.23 3.57 85.3
1 25 46.60 35.80 0.71 1.34 86.6
1 26 47.20 37.00 0.05 1.67 88.3
1 27 53.80 42.70 0.09 6.25 94.5
1 28 60.60 45.80 0.01 11.20 105.7
1 29 58.40 44.90 0.29 9.65 115.4
1 30 49.70 40.80 0.14 3.44 118.8
1 31 47.00 38.60 0.04 1.76 120.6
2 1 51.10 39.60 0.01 3.83 124.4
2 2 62.60 44.00 0.00 11.30 135.7
2 3 60.30 45.50 0.01 10.90 146.6
2 4 59.60 43.30 0.01 9.45 156.1
2 5 60.20 38.30 0.00 7.91 164.0
2 6 56.40 33.70 0.01 5.27 169.2
2 7 55.10 38.10 0.00 5.41 174.7
2 8 59.10 36.80 0.01 7.04 181.7
2 9 50.10 39.70 0.00 3.37 185.1
2 10 47.60 34.60 0.00 1.64 186.7
2 11 44.70 31.30 0.01 0.53 187.2
2 12 47.40 33.80 0.00 1.51 188.7
2 13 51.70 23.90 0.00 2.53 191.3
2 14 49.50 35.60 0.32 2.49 193.8
2 15 49.60 31.80 0.00 2.21 196.0
2 16 49.90 38.60 0.01 3.07 199.0
2 17 53.10 42.40 0.09 5.75 204.8
2 18 41.50 32.60 0.25 0.00 204.8
2 19 40.70 31.90 0.00 0.00 204.8
2 20 41.00 28.10 0.20 0.00 204.8
2 21 38.70 30.30 0.00 0.00 204.8
2 22 40.70 30.80 0.07 0.00 204.8
2 23 39.60 22.20 0.00 0.00 204.8
2 24 46.10 36.50 0.27 1.19 206.0
2 25 46.10 34.90 0.54 1.10 207.1
2 26 46.50 30.30 0.02 1.04 208.1
2 27 45.40 29.50 0.00 0.68 208.8
2 28 46.60 39.50 0.43 1.70 210.5
3 1 43.70 37.50 0.11 0.39 210.9
3 2 49.90 35.10 0.00 2.61 213.5
3 3 48.10 31.20 0.05 1.62 215.1
3 4 48.60 30.30 0.02 1.75 216.9
3 5 54.10 33.00 0.01 4.17 221.1
3 6 53.50 36.90 0.00 4.44 225.5
3 7 50.90 33.50 0.00 2.87 228.4
3 8 54.80 39.20 0.26 5.51 233.9
3 9 51.90 39.70 0.00 4.23 238.1
3 10 56.60 35.40 0.00 5.62 243.7
3 11 63.90 38.00 0.01 9.63 253.4
3 12 67.70 36.00 0.00 10.98 264.3
3 13 57.10 43.40 0.56 8.25 272.6
3 14 53.80 37.70 0.03 4.72 277.3
3 15 51.60 32.50 0.06 3.06 280.4
3 16 52.00 33.90 0.01 3.37 283.7
3 17 51.50 36.60 0.17 3.49 287.2
3 18 52.40 35.90 0.00 3.79 291.0
3 19 54.00 31.90 0.00 4.01 295.0
3 20 59.80 29.90 0.01 6.27 301.3
3 21 53.50 36.70 0.45 4.41 305.7
3 22 48.40 33.90 0.89 1.90 307.6
3 23 42.30 35.10 0.79 0.03 307.6
3 24 47.60 34.60 0.19 1.64 309.3
3 25 49.30 33.80 0.16 2.25 311.5
3 26 50.20 32.90 0.04 2.53 314.0
3 27 56.90 41.00 0.00 7.06 321.1
3 28 58.90 38.60 0.00 7.35 328.4
3 29 59.40 37.60 0.00 7.36 335.8
3 30 60.20 35.20 0.00 7.25 343.1
3 31 61.90 39.10 0.00 8.94 352.0 2% egg hatch
4 1 51.50 34.40 0.04 3.21 355.2
4 2 52.30 34.10 0.01 3.52 358.7
4 3 53.10 32.20 0.00 3.66 362.4
4 4 62.10 44.20 0.02 11.15 373.5
4 5 53.30 46.20 0.35 7.75 381.3
4 6 69.90 52.20 0.06 19.05 400.3
4 7 60.60 47.20 1.14 11.90 412.2
4 8 53.20 43.00 0.55 6.10 418.3
4 9 63.30 37.80 0.01 9.29 427.6
4 10 60.80 47.20 0.02 12.00 439.6
4 11 54.80 40.90 0.33 5.98 445.6
4 12 50.60 39.20 0.44 3.50 449.1
4 13 56.00 44.90 0.07 8.45 457.6
4 14 57.80 48.00 0.25 10.90 468.5
4 15 50.70 41.50 0.70 4.15 472.6
4 16 48.60 38.90 0.26 2.52 475.1
4 17 53.00 41.00 0.16 5.12 480.3
4 18 58.50 40.60 0.00 7.72 488.0
4 19 65.20 33.80 0.00 9.33 497.3
4 20 66.10 34.60 0.00 9.91 507.2
4 21 60.30 45.30 0.00 10.80 518.0
4 22 62.80 37.60 0.00 8.99 527.0
4 23 74.00 43.90 0.00 16.95 544.0
4 24 79.50 48.50 0.00 22.00 566.0
4 25 79.00 43.90 0.00 19.45 585.4
4 26 72.50 45.10 0.00 16.80 602.2 Peak 1st instar
4 27 52.90 48.60 0.28 8.75 611.0
4 28 58.90 45.90 0.00 10.40 621.4
4 29 59.80 45.30 0.05 10.55 631.9
4 30 57.00 45.70 0.03 9.35 641.3
5 1 58.20 44.40 0.00 9.30 650.6
5 2 71.00 39.30 0.00 13.49 664.0
5 3 72.00 41.70 0.00 14.86 678.9
5 4 64.40 49.50 0.00 14.95 693.9
5 5 71.70 47.80 0.00 17.75 711.6
5 6 65.60 47.30 0.06 14.45 726.1
5 7 70.10 47.00 0.00 16.55 742.6
5 8 72.10 44.40 0.08 16.25 758.9
5 9 67.00 52.50 0.00 17.75 776.6
5 10 63.70 43.50 0.04 11.60 788.2
5 11 65.70 43.30 0.00 12.50 800.7
5 12 77.40 45.40 0.00 19.40 820.1
5 13 84.50 46.10 0.00 23.30 843.4
5 14 82.90 47.10 0.00 23.00 866.4
5 15 70.20 44.90 0.00 15.55 882.0 Peak 2nd instar
5 16 66.30 53.40 0.00 17.85 899.8
5 17 68.00 46.40 0.00 15.20 915.0
5 18 69.40 45.20 0.00 15.30 930.3
5 19 69.80 46.20 0.00 16.00 946.3
5 20 69.30 44.70 0.00 15.00 961.3
5 21 73.40 42.20 0.00 15.80 977.1
5 22 82.00 46.70 0.00 22.35 999.5
5 23 73.90 49.60 0.01 19.75 1019.2
5 24 71.40 54.40 0.00 20.90 1040.1
5 25 67.40 52.20 0.00 17.80 1057.9 Peak 3rd instar
5 26 65.50 41.30 0.00 11.45 1069.4
5 27 77.40 43.80 0.00 18.60 1088.0
5 28 73.90 46.00 0.00 17.95 1105.9
5 29 66.40 48.50 0.00 15.45 1121.4
5 30 66.30 40.80 0.00 11.66 1133.0
5 31 63.90 47.90 0.00 13.90 1146.9
6 1 72.30 36.60 0.00 13.36 1160.3
6 2 81.10 42.10 0.00 19.60 1179.9
6 3 72.80 47.10 0.00 17.95 1197.8
6 4 69.20 49.00 0.00 17.10 1214.9
6 5 71.70 38.20 0.00 13.50 1228.4
6 6 75.70 41.30 0.00 16.54 1245.0
6 7 70.80 49.50 0.00 18.15 1263.1
6 8 67.30 46.80 0.40 15.05 1278.2 Peak 4th instar
6 9 62.60 46.60 0.04 12.60 1290.8
6 10 56.80 47.40 0.25 10.10 1300.9
6 11 70.20 50.70 0.06 18.45 1319.3
6 12 80.10 46.00 0.00 21.05 1340.4
6 13 65.30 49.50 0.00 15.40 1355.8
6 14 67.60 50.30 0.00 16.95 1372.7
6 15 70.80 49.10 0.00 17.95 1390.7
6 16 77.00 50.80 0.00 21.90 1412.6
6 17 87.20 57.20 0.01 30.20 1442.8
6 18 82.60 53.80 0.01 26.20 1469.0
6 19 89.10 49.10 0.00 27.10 1496.1
6 20 82.70 54.60 0.00 26.65 1522.7
6 21 76.00 56.40 0.00 24.20 1546.9
6 22 77.00 56.40 0.00 24.70 1571.6
6 23 76.80 55.40 0.00 24.10 1595.7
6 24 89.60 54.60 0.00 30.10 1625.8
6 25 71.80 48.00 0.00 17.90 1643.7 2% pupation
6 26 76.40 43.50 0.00 17.95 1661.7
6 27 77.20 48.50 0.00 20.85 1682.5
6 28 75.40 43.30 0.00 17.35 1699.9
6 29 81.50 44.20 0.00 20.85 1720.7
6 30 83.70 48.10 0.00 23.90 1744.6 Peak 5th and 6th instar
7 1 79.20 56.00 0.00 25.60 1770.2
7 2 71.80 47.90 0.00 17.85 1788.1
7 3 75.80 41.80 0.00 16.81 1804.9
7 4 73.10 56.50 0.00 22.80 1827.7
7 5 85.40 48.50 0.00 24.95 1852.6
7 6 77.20 50.40 0.00 21.80 1874.4
7 7 80.80 48.90 0.00 22.85 1897.3
7 8 81.90 53.10 0.00 25.50 1922.8
7 9 70.10 49.20 0.00 17.65 1940.4
7 10 80.20 52.10 0.00 24.15 1964.6
7 11 88.30 55.30 0.00 29.80 1994.4
7 12 97.30 63.30 0.00 38.30 2032.7
7 13 93.30 61.30 0.00 35.30 2068.0
7 14 92.20 54.30 0.00 31.25 2099.2 50% pupation
7 15 96.40 54.70 0.00 33.55 2132.8
7 16 95.90 55.90 0.00 33.90 2166.7
7 17 89.20 53.20 0.00 29.20 2195.9 2% adult emergence
7 18 86.60 50.60 0.00 26.60 2222.5
7 19 75.80 52.80 0.00 22.30 2244.8
7 20 79.50 47.70 0.00 21.60 2266.4
7 21 81.00 48.60 0.00 22.80 2289.2
7 22 90.70 53.40 0.00 30.05 2319.2
7 23 92.80 50.70 0.00 29.75 2349.0
7 24 95.40 52.70 0.00 32.05 2381.0
7 25 96.30 52.80 0.00 32.55 2413.6
7 26 96.00 54.90 0.00 33.45 2447.0
7 27 90.10 50.50 0.00 28.30 2475.3
7 28 90.40 49.00 0.00 27.70 2503.0
7 29 96.80 54.70 0.00 33.75 2536.8
7 30 87.60 56.10 0.00 29.85 2566.6 50% adult emergence
7 31 89.40 52.30 0.00 28.85 2595.5
Forecast using: 1910 CRVO PRISM_rev1_4km 2008-2017 AVERAGES Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 DD50
spongy moth from Jan 1 model - Sheehan-simpl.Location: 2018 CRVO CORVALLIS OR 1910 CRVO PRISM_rev1_4km 2008-2017 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 3-31-18 | 352 | 2% egg hatch |
| 4-26-18 | 602 | Peak 1st instar |
| 5-15-18 | 882 | Peak 2nd instar |
| 5-25-18 | 1058 | Peak 3rd instar |
| 6-8-18 | 1278 | Peak 4th instar |
| 6-25-18 | 1644 | 2% pupation |
| 6-30-18 | 1745 | Peak 5th and 6th instar |
| 7-14-18 | 2099 | 50% pupation |
| 7-17-18 | 2196 | 2% adult emergence |
| 7-30-18 | 2567 | 50% adult emergence |
![degree-day graph of spongy moth from Jan 1 [oak-maple] Sheehan-simpl.](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2438679)
